5 ms·

Exactly; you are referring to survivorship bias - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

jasonkester 9y ago
They need another catchy phrase to reply to this, along the lines of "if you never try, there's nothing to survive". Survivorship Bias is at the top of the list of "reasons not to try", and it's a shame to see it dragged out every time you see a success story. The thing I live on today was Job Quittin' Sideproject #5. The first four died without ever letting me quit any jobs. Is #5 "survivorship"? Or is it "persistance"? Let's say the chance of getting a business working, even for a smart guy, is only 10%. Does that mean you shouldn't try? Or does that mean it will take on average half a dozen attempts to make it work? I like to think it's the latter. Here's a bit that I wrote about all this a week or so ago: http://www.expatsoftware.com/Articles/what-if-your-bootstrapped-product-dies.html http://www.expatsoftware.com/Articles/what-if-your-bootstrap...
- amorphid 9y ago
  > They need another catchy phrase to reply to this, along the lines of "if you never try, there's nothing to survive". I like "you gotta be in it to win it".
- smt88 9y ago
  > Let's say the chance of getting a business working, even for a smart guy, is only 10%. It's much, much lower, according to any reasonable estimation. For all startups, I've seen "less than 1%" on many occasions. That obviously excludes tons of failures that are never reported anywhere -- sometimes that are never even incorporated, despite trying to build/sell a product. > Does that mean you shouldn't try? For the vast majority of people, yes! "Try" has costs -- time, money, life, and relationships. To really try will often cost tens of thousands of dollars. Most people can't afford to gamble so much with such a tiny chance of success.
  - jasonkester 9y ago
    "less than 1%" Are you thinking VC-backed startups, or maybe lumping them in to your calculation? Remember, we're talking bootstrapped businesses designed for profitability. I think you'd be hard pressed to make ten real efforts in a row, learning lessons as you go, without getting one of them to stick. For VC's, where "profitable and growing linearly" equates to failure, then sure, the odds are worse. But that's just another reason not to go that route. tens of thousands of dollars For what it's worth, the 4 big multi-year failures I reference above cost maybe a few thousand dollars total over the span of 10 years, and happened primarily in spare nights & weekends during the course of an otherwise active and non-ruined life. Most people who met me never knew it was happening at all, and no friday beers were missed as a result of the aforementioned bootstrapping.
  - marz0 9y ago
    I suppose it depends on how you differentiate between startups and small businesses, but the failure rate might not be as bad you would think depending on how you expect to run your business. Only 50% of small businesses will have failed after 5 years[0], which is a significantly lower rate of failure than you typically hear for startups. If you decide to start a lifestyle business as opposed to a high-growth startup you may be more successful in terms of wealth and health. [0] https://www.fundera.com/blog/what-percentage-of-small-businesses-fail https://www.fundera.com/blog/what-percentage-of-small-busine...
    - smt88 9y ago
      That's a good point. I was using "startup" to mean "building a new product with a new company," but that's not always what startup means. It's true that the failure rate of small businesses is lower because many are selling staples (food, clothes, home services) or are franchises.
  - jmkni 9y ago
    I find that a lot of people who make this argument don't really care about other peoples quality of life/time/money/etc They just don't want that other person to try, as if somebody else gets VC funding or launches a successful product, then it's less likely that you will be able to successfully do so, especially if you are in a similar space. Talking somebody out of trying by convincing them that there is no chance of success is a lot easier than actually competing with them.
- Chris_Jay 9y ago
  "I think of it as persistance bias" might fit the bill.

jasonkester 9y ago

They need another catchy phrase to reply to this, along the lines of "if you never try, there's nothing to survive". Survivorship Bias is at the top of the list of "reasons not to try", and it's a shame to see it dragged out every time you see a success story. The thing I live on today was Job Quittin' Sideproject #5. The first four died without ever letting me quit any jobs. Is #5 "survivorship"? Or is it "persistance"? Let's say the chance of getting a business working, even for a smart guy, is only 10%. Does that mean you shouldn't try? Or does that mean it will take on average half a dozen attempts to make it work? I like to think it's the latter. Here's a bit that I wrote about all this a week or so ago: http://www.expatsoftware.com/Articles/what-if-your-bootstrapped-product-dies.html http://www.expatsoftware.com/Articles/what-if-your-bootstrap...

amorphid 9y ago
> They need another catchy phrase to reply to this, along the lines of "if you never try, there's nothing to survive". I like "you gotta be in it to win it".
smt88 9y ago
> Let's say the chance of getting a business working, even for a smart guy, is only 10%. It's much, much lower, according to any reasonable estimation. For all startups, I've seen "less than 1%" on many occasions. That obviously excludes tons of failures that are never reported anywhere -- sometimes that are never even incorporated, despite trying to build/sell a product. > Does that mean you shouldn't try? For the vast majority of people, yes! "Try" has costs -- time, money, life, and relationships. To really try will often cost tens of thousands of dollars. Most people can't afford to gamble so much with such a tiny chance of success.
- jasonkester 9y ago
  "less than 1%" Are you thinking VC-backed startups, or maybe lumping them in to your calculation? Remember, we're talking bootstrapped businesses designed for profitability. I think you'd be hard pressed to make ten real efforts in a row, learning lessons as you go, without getting one of them to stick. For VC's, where "profitable and growing linearly" equates to failure, then sure, the odds are worse. But that's just another reason not to go that route. tens of thousands of dollars For what it's worth, the 4 big multi-year failures I reference above cost maybe a few thousand dollars total over the span of 10 years, and happened primarily in spare nights & weekends during the course of an otherwise active and non-ruined life. Most people who met me never knew it was happening at all, and no friday beers were missed as a result of the aforementioned bootstrapping.
- marz0 9y ago
  I suppose it depends on how you differentiate between startups and small businesses, but the failure rate might not be as bad you would think depending on how you expect to run your business. Only 50% of small businesses will have failed after 5 years[0], which is a significantly lower rate of failure than you typically hear for startups. If you decide to start a lifestyle business as opposed to a high-growth startup you may be more successful in terms of wealth and health. [0] https://www.fundera.com/blog/what-percentage-of-small-businesses-fail https://www.fundera.com/blog/what-percentage-of-small-busine...
  - smt88 9y ago
    That's a good point. I was using "startup" to mean "building a new product with a new company," but that's not always what startup means. It's true that the failure rate of small businesses is lower because many are selling staples (food, clothes, home services) or are franchises.
- jmkni 9y ago
  I find that a lot of people who make this argument don't really care about other peoples quality of life/time/money/etc They just don't want that other person to try, as if somebody else gets VC funding or launches a successful product, then it's less likely that you will be able to successfully do so, especially if you are in a similar space. Talking somebody out of trying by convincing them that there is no chance of success is a lot easier than actually competing with them.
Chris_Jay 9y ago
"I think of it as persistance bias" might fit the bill.