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> The price of bitcoin has increased sixfold in the past year Later, regarding the trader in question, > His portfolio is up 295 percent in the past 12 months

> The price of bitcoin has increased sixfold in the past year Later, regarding the trader in question, > His portfolio is up 295 percent in the past 12 months. ...am I interpreting the numbers wrong, or has he done significantly worse than the market here?

chrisabrams 9y ago
If you don't trade cryptos it looks really nice, but if you trade cryptos, then yes it did not do that great compared to the overall market. I have done over 600% in the past year, but I know plenty of people who are in the negative because they bought high and sold low. In the end, anyone who can make 295% return and have 9000+ investors following them is going to be just fine.
- lloyd-christmas 9y ago
  You're both in the business of making money. If buy and hold is more effective than trading, the trader is losing. Fairly relevant: https://www.aei.org/publication/warren-buffett-wins-1m-bet-made-a-decade-ago-that-the-sp-500-stock-index-would-outperform-hedge-funds/ https://www.aei.org/publication/warren-buffett-wins-1m-bet-m...
lawn 9y ago
Yes. The price of Bitcoin was ~$600 12 months ago, ~990$ Jan 1st and it's now ~4080$. Trading should be compared against simply holding, otherwise what's the point?
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- weavie 9y ago
  You want to compare it against holding through market fluctuations. Sure holding would have been better this year. Should bitcoin crash next year, it will be interesting to see if he is still in profit or not when the person holding is down. I assume this is why he is currently not up against holding, because he has spread his risk to accommodate any crashes.
tpeo 9y ago
He probably did as well as he could given his risk preferences and overall level of, uh, insanity, for the lack of a better word. By "insanity" I mean that which allows a person to do something like always doubling down on successful investments, risk of ruin be damned. It's a sure way to get absurdly rich if you don't end up losing everything you have along the way.
- bduerst 9y ago
  Yep, these articles always suffer from survivor bias. You never see the people who lost it all.

chrisabrams 9y ago

If you don't trade cryptos it looks really nice, but if you trade cryptos, then yes it did not do that great compared to the overall market. I have done over 600% in the past year, but I know plenty of people who are in the negative because they bought high and sold low. In the end, anyone who can make 295% return and have 9000+ investors following them is going to be just fine.

lloyd-christmas 9y ago
You're both in the business of making money. If buy and hold is more effective than trading, the trader is losing. Fairly relevant: https://www.aei.org/publication/warren-buffett-wins-1m-bet-made-a-decade-ago-that-the-sp-500-stock-index-would-outperform-hedge-funds/ https://www.aei.org/publication/warren-buffett-wins-1m-bet-m...

lawn 9y ago

Yes. The price of Bitcoin was ~$600 12 months ago, ~990$ Jan 1st and it's now ~4080$. Trading should be compared against simply holding, otherwise what's the point?

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
weavie 9y ago
You want to compare it against holding through market fluctuations. Sure holding would have been better this year. Should bitcoin crash next year, it will be interesting to see if he is still in profit or not when the person holding is down. I assume this is why he is currently not up against holding, because he has spread his risk to accommodate any crashes.

tpeo 9y ago

He probably did as well as he could given his risk preferences and overall level of, uh, insanity, for the lack of a better word. By "insanity" I mean that which allows a person to do something like always doubling down on successful investments, risk of ruin be damned. It's a sure way to get absurdly rich if you don't end up losing everything you have along the way.

bduerst 9y ago
Yep, these articles always suffer from survivor bias. You never see the people who lost it all.