Just guessing here, but watch for a significant date: July 16th, 2019. That's the 50th anniversary of the launch of Apollo 11. It's also 6-12 months on from th

Just guessing here, but watch for a significant date: July 16th, 2019. That's the 50th anniversary of the launch of Apollo 11. It's also 6-12 months on from the projected date of Musk's translunar tourist trip on a Falcon Heavy (which I'm willing to bet will be delayed a few months, minimum, because no new launch vehicle ever flies on time, especially a crew-rated one). I don't expect a lunar landing in 2020. It'd require the development of a new lunar module, space suits, and a mission profile and training in only two years, which is almost certainly very difficult if not impossible (not only for today's sclerotic NASA but also for SpaceX — agile management will only get you so far). It'd also require at least two Falcon Heavy launches to put the stack in Lunar orbit — Falcon Heavy, even in non-reusable form, has a significantly smaller payload than Saturn V. But a circumlunar flag-waving flight (sans lander) over the anniversary of Apollo 11 is entirely possible, using a single Falcon Heavy and Dragon 2. It's also a date within the term in office of Donald Trump (or Mike Pence, depending who's in the Oval Office by then), which means there's some chance of convincing the current POTUS that he can get to make a historic phone call in front of the TV cameras. Trump is of an age to have young-adult memories of Apollo and I can't see the idea not appealing to him if he can find a way to take credit for it.