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I hope Boeing has done their napkin math correctly, because the Canadian government has threatened to cancel their Super Hornet purchase over this dispute. Tha

I hope Boeing has done their napkin math correctly, because the Canadian government has threatened to cancel their Super Hornet purchase over this dispute. That's a $5 billion dollar order that may have just gone up in smoke: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau threatening to scuttle the country's plans to buy $5 billion worth of F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets from Boeing It would cost the Canadian government a lot of political capital to back down on this threat, so if the US is intent to apply an import tariff to the C-series I can absolutely see Canada cancelling the Super Hornet order.

alexasmyths 9y ago
As a Canadian, I wish that were true, but our gov does not ever play hard ball. We fully play the nice guy routine. There's no face-saving for us. I'm even surprised they made the threat. The other issue is - we are in a bind. We're buying F18's because we're not going to go for the F35s, at least for now. And switching temporarily to another vendor would be impossible ... and our 'long term commitment' is usually to the US when it comes to fighter jets etc.. It would be pretty interesting for Canada to go 'European' for the next 40 years, it would damage our relationship with the US. This is going to be big news in Canada and cause some ire, surely.
- slededit 9y ago
  Canada is perfectly happy to not have functioning hardware for extended periods of time. Especially now that it has entered a far more isolationist stance under Trudeau (in terms of military involvement).
  - gaius 9y ago
    It's funny, most people in the rest of the world don't even think Canada has a military. What do the Mounties need with F18s? I am sure the Eurofighter consortium would be happy to take an order for some Typhoons tho'...
    - kogepathic 9y ago
      > I am sure the Eurofighter consortium would be happy to take an order for some Typhoons tho'... Sweden has a Gripen I'm sure they would love to sell. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JAS_39_Gripen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JAS_39_Gripen
    - rconti 9y ago
      It seems like it would be an insanely huge task to start doing military contracts with a new supplier, get new parts, train servicemembers how to maintain the new planes, and deal with countless pieces of support equipment and infrastructure and software designed for one plane. Then again, I really have no idea -- perhaps there are so few commonalities between an F/A-18 and an F-35 that it's just as easy to switch to another vendor.
      - gaius 9y ago
        There are barely any commonalities between F35 variants despite what was promised, it's another debacle of that programme.
  - alexasmyths 9y ago
    I have first-hand experience with this and this is really a significant problem and it's not a joke. We are definitely not 'perfectly happy' - it 100% affects operational capabilities, including putting lives at risk - we operate without proper air support in some scenarios, finally the previous government faced the problem and bought some Chinooks (ironically from Boeing). Trudeau is different only in tone from previous governments with respect to foreign engagement. In pragmatic reality our military involvements would be just the same. Moreover - time is ticking severely on our F18's which are way-way past service windows. As to the commenter above about F35's - it's very complicated, and our 'sticking to the f35' may have very well just been political. We never signed a deal, and never committed to a price - also - we still may buy them. Publicly pulling out of the deal means a number of local sub-contractors lose their contracts. Of course it's complicated though.
- kogepathic 9y ago
  > The other issue is - we are in a bind. We're buying F18's because we're not going to go for the F35s, at least for now. And switching temporarily to another vendor would be impossible On the flip side, the Canadian government had already chosen the F-35 and then when the Liberal party became the majority they scrapped that deal. People were claiming the F-35 deal couldn't be undone, but they did it. I wouldn't be surprised if they're willing to stick it to Boeing/DJT by scrapping the F/A-18 deal now too.
  - dubyah 9y ago
    They made a payment for development a few months back to remain a partner, so they're not fully out. They were originally slated to start phasing out some CF-18s around now, but given how this was supposed to be an interim choice, they're probably going to have to start a service life extension program for their current inventory.
- danmaz74 9y ago
  Semi-jokingly, why don't you apply to join the EU? In a year, a position as the biggest EU connection to the anglosphere will open - and we already have all our treaties translated in French, too; looks to me like lots of our values are very similar, and the US would be much more careful with their threats if you were with us ;)
  - vkou 9y ago
    Because we don't want to see, ahem, regime change in Ottawa.
  - alexasmyths 9y ago
    Why would anyone want to join the EU? What's the advantage? Hand over significant authority to an unelected body, for what now? There is no advantage, unless you're receiving subsidies. We already have a trade deal with Europe, something the EU doesn't even want to offer the UK apparently.
    - danmaz74 9y ago
      There are many reasons, but the one relevant to this case is: because the US and China etc. can so easily bully EU states as they do with sovereign smaller countries.
      - danmaz74 9y ago
        * can't
      - alexasmyths 9y ago
        That is probably the only good reason but the EU is not at all required for that. Especially in the viciously undemocratic manner in which it is organized.
    - tonyedgecombe 9y ago
      Hand over significant authority to an unelected body, for what now? That's strange, I'm sure I remember voting in EU elections.
thephyber 9y ago
I suspect we will see a few other threatened/attempted tariffs in multiple industries and they will all be leveraged together to "renegotiate NAFTA". My understanding is this is how trade deals tend to work from what I gather. That said, it does sound high risk.
- alexasmyths 9y ago
  You make a great point. This is, I think, a kind of negotiating tactic. But this is generally not how trade negos work - I think that this is the Trump Admin's version of hardball. US gov is big and diverse, and once it's appealed, the body making the ruling may not be part of Trump's apparatus directly and may have something more level-headed to say about all this.
berkut 9y ago
Boeing was 'only' asking for 80%...
CPAhem 9y ago
The UK as well, as Bombardier has a big plant in Northern Ireland in the constituency of the small party that the ruling UK party needs to keep its majority. This plant employs 4,500 people. The Economist has a good overview of this fight: https://www.economist.com/news/business/21729469-row-between-planemakers-has-become-political-boeing-takes-flight-hypocrisy https://www.economist.com/news/business/21729469-row-between...
- steve_gh 9y ago
  The DUP (a right-wing / unionist Northern Ireland party) has a gun to the UK Gov't head at the moment as the Government needs their votes to stay in power (and do Brexit). 4,500 jobs is hugely important to that economy, and by extension to the whole Northern Ireland peace process. There will be the argument that with supposed friends like the USA trying to screw Northern Ireland like this, then what chance does the UK have for a decent trade deal outside the E?

alexasmyths 9y ago

As a Canadian, I wish that were true, but our gov does not ever play hard ball. We fully play the nice guy routine. There's no face-saving for us. I'm even surprised they made the threat. The other issue is - we are in a bind. We're buying F18's because we're not going to go for the F35s, at least for now. And switching temporarily to another vendor would be impossible ... and our 'long term commitment' is usually to the US when it comes to fighter jets etc.. It would be pretty interesting for Canada to go 'European' for the next 40 years, it would damage our relationship with the US. This is going to be big news in Canada and cause some ire, surely.

slededit 9y ago
Canada is perfectly happy to not have functioning hardware for extended periods of time. Especially now that it has entered a far more isolationist stance under Trudeau (in terms of military involvement).
- gaius 9y ago
  It's funny, most people in the rest of the world don't even think Canada has a military. What do the Mounties need with F18s? I am sure the Eurofighter consortium would be happy to take an order for some Typhoons tho'...
  - kogepathic 9y ago
    > I am sure the Eurofighter consortium would be happy to take an order for some Typhoons tho'... Sweden has a Gripen I'm sure they would love to sell. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JAS_39_Gripen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_JAS_39_Gripen
  - rconti 9y ago
    It seems like it would be an insanely huge task to start doing military contracts with a new supplier, get new parts, train servicemembers how to maintain the new planes, and deal with countless pieces of support equipment and infrastructure and software designed for one plane. Then again, I really have no idea -- perhaps there are so few commonalities between an F/A-18 and an F-35 that it's just as easy to switch to another vendor.
    - gaius 9y ago
      There are barely any commonalities between F35 variants despite what was promised, it's another debacle of that programme.
- alexasmyths 9y ago
  I have first-hand experience with this and this is really a significant problem and it's not a joke. We are definitely not 'perfectly happy' - it 100% affects operational capabilities, including putting lives at risk - we operate without proper air support in some scenarios, finally the previous government faced the problem and bought some Chinooks (ironically from Boeing). Trudeau is different only in tone from previous governments with respect to foreign engagement. In pragmatic reality our military involvements would be just the same. Moreover - time is ticking severely on our F18's which are way-way past service windows. As to the commenter above about F35's - it's very complicated, and our 'sticking to the f35' may have very well just been political. We never signed a deal, and never committed to a price - also - we still may buy them. Publicly pulling out of the deal means a number of local sub-contractors lose their contracts. Of course it's complicated though.
kogepathic 9y ago
> The other issue is - we are in a bind. We're buying F18's because we're not going to go for the F35s, at least for now. And switching temporarily to another vendor would be impossible On the flip side, the Canadian government had already chosen the F-35 and then when the Liberal party became the majority they scrapped that deal. People were claiming the F-35 deal couldn't be undone, but they did it. I wouldn't be surprised if they're willing to stick it to Boeing/DJT by scrapping the F/A-18 deal now too.
- dubyah 9y ago
  They made a payment for development a few months back to remain a partner, so they're not fully out. They were originally slated to start phasing out some CF-18s around now, but given how this was supposed to be an interim choice, they're probably going to have to start a service life extension program for their current inventory.
danmaz74 9y ago
Semi-jokingly, why don't you apply to join the EU? In a year, a position as the biggest EU connection to the anglosphere will open - and we already have all our treaties translated in French, too; looks to me like lots of our values are very similar, and the US would be much more careful with their threats if you were with us ;)
- vkou 9y ago
  Because we don't want to see, ahem, regime change in Ottawa.
- alexasmyths 9y ago
  Why would anyone want to join the EU? What's the advantage? Hand over significant authority to an unelected body, for what now? There is no advantage, unless you're receiving subsidies. We already have a trade deal with Europe, something the EU doesn't even want to offer the UK apparently.
  - danmaz74 9y ago
    There are many reasons, but the one relevant to this case is: because the US and China etc. can so easily bully EU states as they do with sovereign smaller countries.
    - danmaz74 9y ago
      * can't
    - alexasmyths 9y ago
      That is probably the only good reason but the EU is not at all required for that. Especially in the viciously undemocratic manner in which it is organized.
  - tonyedgecombe 9y ago
    Hand over significant authority to an unelected body, for what now? That's strange, I'm sure I remember voting in EU elections.

thephyber 9y ago

I suspect we will see a few other threatened/attempted tariffs in multiple industries and they will all be leveraged together to "renegotiate NAFTA". My understanding is this is how trade deals tend to work from what I gather. That said, it does sound high risk.

alexasmyths 9y ago
You make a great point. This is, I think, a kind of negotiating tactic. But this is generally not how trade negos work - I think that this is the Trump Admin's version of hardball. US gov is big and diverse, and once it's appealed, the body making the ruling may not be part of Trump's apparatus directly and may have something more level-headed to say about all this.

berkut 9y ago

Boeing was 'only' asking for 80%...

CPAhem 9y ago

The UK as well, as Bombardier has a big plant in Northern Ireland in the constituency of the small party that the ruling UK party needs to keep its majority. This plant employs 4,500 people. The Economist has a good overview of this fight: https://www.economist.com/news/business/21729469-row-between-planemakers-has-become-political-boeing-takes-flight-hypocrisy https://www.economist.com/news/business/21729469-row-between...

steve_gh 9y ago
The DUP (a right-wing / unionist Northern Ireland party) has a gun to the UK Gov't head at the moment as the Government needs their votes to stay in power (and do Brexit). 4,500 jobs is hugely important to that economy, and by extension to the whole Northern Ireland peace process. There will be the argument that with supposed friends like the USA trying to screw Northern Ireland like this, then what chance does the UK have for a decent trade deal outside the E?