My point actually was that your (2) is not correct. The game gives you +2.2 (av) every single turn regardless of what move you make, so improving the AI can't p

My point actually was that your (2) is not correct. The game gives you +2.2 (av) every single turn regardless of what move you make, so improving the AI can't possibly increase the speed at which you get these points. Improving the AI only reduces your chance of dying. However, good point with "it takes a few moves to merge the tiles". Coupled with the fact that the game starts you off with 2 tiles (4 points), my "quick" method gets closer to your value: 2048 (target) - 4 (starting) = 2044 2044 / 2.2 = 929.090909090909 + 10 moves to merge ~= 939.1 on average to get a 2048 tile on the board.