6 ms·

This fool thinks he can time the market. >“I sold at $5,000 or $4,980,” he said. “Then three weeks later I’m trying to buy it in the low $3,000s. If you’re goo

by josu 9y ago

This fool thinks he can time the market. >“I sold at $5,000 or $4,980,” he said. “Then three weeks later I’m trying to buy it in the low $3,000s. If you’re good at that and you’re a trading junkie, it’s a lot of fun.” My guess is that this is not going to end well for him or his fund. If you want to read a similar story read this twitter feed [0]: it's from a very confident trader who probably lost around 1-2M. We will probably not know the exact number because he stopped tweeting. [0] https://twitter.com/fomoer https://twitter.com/fomoer

rothbardrand 9y ago
Timing the market isn't as hard in a sustained bull market, because being right %50 of the time still results in returns. When Bitcoin makes all time highs, selling some is an easy strategy, and then when some random news hits and it drops, or whales start throwing weight around, then you can buy in at a discount like this guy did. The article leaves out that it has come back up to $4k right now. Since so many traders are following stock oriented trading strategies the market dynamics end up being a lot like stocks with sentiment driving direction, which is probably not super hard to trade (though I'm not good at it.) So much of the stocks value and future depends on regulatory environment and stocks are located in one jurisdiction... meanwhile bitcoin global. So as time goes on, any one jurisdiction making scary noises has less effect on bitcoin. The drop to $3k was due to china "banning bitcoin" (for like the 8th time this year) and it was quickly shrugged off... I remember china "banning bitcoin" back in January taking us from $1,200 to $800.
- csomar 9y ago
  > Timing the market isn't as hard in a sustained bull market, because being right %50 of the time still results in returns. When Bitcoin makes all time highs, selling some is an easy strategy, and then when some random news hits and it drops, or whales start throwing weight around, then you can buy in at a discount like this guy did. This speaks like someone who hasn't traded bitcoin, at least recently. I'll tell you that the non-stop jump from 900 to 3.000 hit very bad the very best of traders. That's an event where you lose money even though we are still in a bull-market. Now think how much you'll lose when the tables turn (bull market to bear market). Trading is hard business.
Waterluvian 9y ago
Won't it end well for him because he gets fees risking other people's money? Or is there typically a, "if I do poorly, there are no fees" clause?
- josu 9y ago
  He is putting 150M of his own to start the fund. Also, closing a fund because it's not providing the expected returns is not the same as closing a fund because you are -30%.

by josu 9y ago

rothbardrand 9y ago

Timing the market isn't as hard in a sustained bull market, because being right %50 of the time still results in returns. When Bitcoin makes all time highs, selling some is an easy strategy, and then when some random news hits and it drops, or whales start throwing weight around, then you can buy in at a discount like this guy did. The article leaves out that it has come back up to $4k right now. Since so many traders are following stock oriented trading strategies the market dynamics end up being a lot like stocks with sentiment driving direction, which is probably not super hard to trade (though I'm not good at it.) So much of the stocks value and future depends on regulatory environment and stocks are located in one jurisdiction... meanwhile bitcoin global. So as time goes on, any one jurisdiction making scary noises has less effect on bitcoin. The drop to $3k was due to china "banning bitcoin" (for like the 8th time this year) and it was quickly shrugged off... I remember china "banning bitcoin" back in January taking us from $1,200 to $800.

csomar 9y ago
> Timing the market isn't as hard in a sustained bull market, because being right %50 of the time still results in returns. When Bitcoin makes all time highs, selling some is an easy strategy, and then when some random news hits and it drops, or whales start throwing weight around, then you can buy in at a discount like this guy did. This speaks like someone who hasn't traded bitcoin, at least recently. I'll tell you that the non-stop jump from 900 to 3.000 hit very bad the very best of traders. That's an event where you lose money even though we are still in a bull-market. Now think how much you'll lose when the tables turn (bull market to bear market). Trading is hard business.

Waterluvian 9y ago

Won't it end well for him because he gets fees risking other people's money? Or is there typically a, "if I do poorly, there are no fees" clause?

josu 9y ago
He is putting 150M of his own to start the fund. Also, closing a fund because it's not providing the expected returns is not the same as closing a fund because you are -30%.