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The CCP congress is next month. They have always cracked down on censorship before it. Their 5-years plan for 2016-2020 is about transitioning from the basic i

by Iv 9y ago

The CCP congress is next month. They have always cracked down on censorship before it. Their 5-years plan for 2016-2020 is about transitioning from the basic industry to more advanced industry and services. They want more research, they want more IT. Chinese IT workers are very critical of the Great Firewall and depend on VPNs to do a lot of things. I think many are realizing that the Firewall is a handicap, but it is also undeniable that it is a very useful political tool. They will have to put that into the balance in front of their will to innovate. They are also moving toward global leadership. In ecology, in foreign relations, they are willing to take the leadership that US is leaving. After being largely dismissive of it, if enough international pressure builds up, they may realize that opening up will help them reach these goals. Sadly, thanks in no small part to Trump, they are probably realizing how dangerous it is to let people vote in a place where medias are not controlled, so my bet is that we will see either some more voting or some more openness in information exchange, but not both. > To be fair, things may even out since Western governments seem to be doing all they can to copy China's censorship and gov control. USA is jailing more of its citizens than China. Even in absolute numbers. USA kills more non-citizens abroad than China. In EU we tend to side with USA anyway because it is a democracy but the last president had less votes than his opponent and is a white supremacist. Understand that for most of the world, accepting USA as a good guy is already a hell of a compromise. Seeing China as acceptable is not more far-fetched.

elefanten 9y ago
If they actually open in response to some of the forces you name, great! More power to them. I, personally, think that would be their best move in terms of global competitiveness over the next 100 years. But it takes some major cynicism to actually consider the moral impact of USA vs China on a global stage comparable. They are much quieter about their international adventurism, but they have a decades long history of protecting and supporting bad actors. Whatever the failure of the USA, North Korea would not be a new breakout nuclear power threatening to become the most likely scenario for nuclear war without major backing and even encouragement from China. China also has multiple ongoing, top-down, programmed genocides happening in several territories, including cultural and institutional colonization of Hong Kong and Taiwan. And that's not even raising the question of who's political values are better, both morally and strategically, for the human race. I understand why cynicism with the US (and the whole West in general) is high... but let's keep things in perspective here.
- Iv 9y ago
  I am not saying that China is good. I am saying that both US and China are bad and that choosing between them is like choosing between plague and cholera. > but they have a decades long history of protecting and supporting bad actors - Saudi Arabia - Talebans - Pakistan - Pinochet - Putin To name a few "nice" people who received a lot of support from the US. > Whatever the failure of the USA, North Korea would not be a new breakout nuclear power threatening to become the most likely scenario for nuclear war without major backing and even encouragement from China. The turning point for NK was in the 2000s. US had invaded Iraq on the obviously false pretense it had WMD. It had not. Had it, it may have repelled an invasion by using them. NK's stance on nuclear deterrence is a direct (and actually rational) reaction to GWB's foreign relations approach. Dubya's administration's lack of diplomacy skills caused that mess. And yes, decades of lack of US plans in a place where it still has a lot of soldiers led to this situation and led to China (and a bit Russia) having the higher hand just because they kept their diplomatic channels open instead of speaking loudly and doing nothing. USA has bases in Japan and South Korea, of course China wants to keep a buffer. Imagine if China had huge naval bases in Mexico, Cuba and Canada. You would be happy to give it an enemy to focus on rather than on yourself. De-escalation could have happened in the 2000s but I fear we now are past that point. Now after 8 years of GWB and God knows how many more of Trump Japan is slowly coming to the idea that going full militaristic is not a bad idea and that they can't rely on US for managing the area. And they are right: China is becoming the dominant power in Asia and USA apparently decided to let it do. > China also has multiple ongoing, top-down, programmed genocides happening in several territories, including cultural and institutional colonization of Hong Kong and Taiwan. Calling that genocide is really disingenuous. This is just cultural influence by a behemoth. Calling it a genocide is as ridiculous as calling the US influence over EU culture a genocide. If you want something closer to human rights violations by China, better look into what is happening in Tibet. You'll get things that look a lot dire, a bit like what US' allies are doing in Yemen or in Palestine (where, btw, there does not seem to be a plan other than a progressive ethnic cleansing). Both are evil and supporting evil actors. None is interested in deescalation and solving the human rights violations in the world. Fuck both of these countries. And if I ever have to choose between the racist and imperialist ideology that the American spirit has become and the cold-hearted efficiency seeking technocracy of China, I'll just toss a coin. I would feel like Finland during WWII, stuck between the 3rd Reich and USSR. Both are bad, both are evil. The world would be better off without them.
ttflee 9y ago
Problem is that, from past experiences, censorship were rarely alleviated even after the event it was supposed to serve. Situations deteriorated year by year. First it was TCP reset by keyword, then came the DNS poisoning, and then the blockage of whole IP ranges for Google, Facebook, twitter and other User-generated-content sites. Unregistered VPNs are expected to be the next. Global leadership would be all but mirage if the reign were shattered. The ruling party knew this well.
- Iv 9y ago
  True. Hitting VPNs, however, is challenging a status-quo: before that they were tolerating that tech-savvy users could access internet outside China. It could be believed that they would let the people with enough of a legitimate reasonto pay for it access the outside. I have the impression that there are more channels for official complaints than we often believe as westerners. I think that they will receive criticism from the whole IT sector. They want to develop international collaborations, this is directly at odds with the censorship of all chat platforms that are not controlled by the CCP.
  - ttflee 9y ago
    The impact of so-called tech savvy users is exaggerated. Criticism from IT sector would be put out no harder than that in other cases. Organized commune hardly exists after so many years since the repression in 1989 and IT companies must be queuing in line to help out or the censorship would not be as effective as it is seen by now.
    - Iv 9y ago
      The criticism will more be in the form of "this thing impaired our economic goals and is at odds with this item in the five years plan"
seppin 9y ago
> Seeing China as acceptable is not more far-fetched. Then Europeans are just as native as their reputation. Every country acts in their own self interest. For some, democracy and free markets are in their interest. For some, no.

by Iv 9y ago

elefanten 9y ago

If they actually open in response to some of the forces you name, great! More power to them. I, personally, think that would be their best move in terms of global competitiveness over the next 100 years. But it takes some major cynicism to actually consider the moral impact of USA vs China on a global stage comparable. They are much quieter about their international adventurism, but they have a decades long history of protecting and supporting bad actors. Whatever the failure of the USA, North Korea would not be a new breakout nuclear power threatening to become the most likely scenario for nuclear war without major backing and even encouragement from China. China also has multiple ongoing, top-down, programmed genocides happening in several territories, including cultural and institutional colonization of Hong Kong and Taiwan. And that's not even raising the question of who's political values are better, both morally and strategically, for the human race. I understand why cynicism with the US (and the whole West in general) is high... but let's keep things in perspective here.

Iv 9y ago
I am not saying that China is good. I am saying that both US and China are bad and that choosing between them is like choosing between plague and cholera. > but they have a decades long history of protecting and supporting bad actors - Saudi Arabia - Talebans - Pakistan - Pinochet - Putin To name a few "nice" people who received a lot of support from the US. > Whatever the failure of the USA, North Korea would not be a new breakout nuclear power threatening to become the most likely scenario for nuclear war without major backing and even encouragement from China. The turning point for NK was in the 2000s. US had invaded Iraq on the obviously false pretense it had WMD. It had not. Had it, it may have repelled an invasion by using them. NK's stance on nuclear deterrence is a direct (and actually rational) reaction to GWB's foreign relations approach. Dubya's administration's lack of diplomacy skills caused that mess. And yes, decades of lack of US plans in a place where it still has a lot of soldiers led to this situation and led to China (and a bit Russia) having the higher hand just because they kept their diplomatic channels open instead of speaking loudly and doing nothing. USA has bases in Japan and South Korea, of course China wants to keep a buffer. Imagine if China had huge naval bases in Mexico, Cuba and Canada. You would be happy to give it an enemy to focus on rather than on yourself. De-escalation could have happened in the 2000s but I fear we now are past that point. Now after 8 years of GWB and God knows how many more of Trump Japan is slowly coming to the idea that going full militaristic is not a bad idea and that they can't rely on US for managing the area. And they are right: China is becoming the dominant power in Asia and USA apparently decided to let it do. > China also has multiple ongoing, top-down, programmed genocides happening in several territories, including cultural and institutional colonization of Hong Kong and Taiwan. Calling that genocide is really disingenuous. This is just cultural influence by a behemoth. Calling it a genocide is as ridiculous as calling the US influence over EU culture a genocide. If you want something closer to human rights violations by China, better look into what is happening in Tibet. You'll get things that look a lot dire, a bit like what US' allies are doing in Yemen or in Palestine (where, btw, there does not seem to be a plan other than a progressive ethnic cleansing). Both are evil and supporting evil actors. None is interested in deescalation and solving the human rights violations in the world. Fuck both of these countries. And if I ever have to choose between the racist and imperialist ideology that the American spirit has become and the cold-hearted efficiency seeking technocracy of China, I'll just toss a coin. I would feel like Finland during WWII, stuck between the 3rd Reich and USSR. Both are bad, both are evil. The world would be better off without them.

ttflee 9y ago

Problem is that, from past experiences, censorship were rarely alleviated even after the event it was supposed to serve. Situations deteriorated year by year. First it was TCP reset by keyword, then came the DNS poisoning, and then the blockage of whole IP ranges for Google, Facebook, twitter and other User-generated-content sites. Unregistered VPNs are expected to be the next. Global leadership would be all but mirage if the reign were shattered. The ruling party knew this well.

Iv 9y ago
True. Hitting VPNs, however, is challenging a status-quo: before that they were tolerating that tech-savvy users could access internet outside China. It could be believed that they would let the people with enough of a legitimate reasonto pay for it access the outside. I have the impression that there are more channels for official complaints than we often believe as westerners. I think that they will receive criticism from the whole IT sector. They want to develop international collaborations, this is directly at odds with the censorship of all chat platforms that are not controlled by the CCP.
- ttflee 9y ago
  The impact of so-called tech savvy users is exaggerated. Criticism from IT sector would be put out no harder than that in other cases. Organized commune hardly exists after so many years since the repression in 1989 and IT companies must be queuing in line to help out or the censorship would not be as effective as it is seen by now.
  - Iv 9y ago
    The criticism will more be in the form of "this thing impaired our economic goals and is at odds with this item in the five years plan"

seppin 9y ago

> Seeing China as acceptable is not more far-fetched. Then Europeans are just as native as their reputation. Every country acts in their own self interest. For some, democracy and free markets are in their interest. For some, no.