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Here's an idea: try creating the compound Ba-La-Cu-O. It's a pretty simple idea. It can be explained in seconds. Any competent chemist can do it, and probabl

Here's an idea: try creating the compound Ba-La-Cu-O. It's a pretty simple idea. It can be explained in seconds. Any competent chemist can do it, and probably a lot of incompetent ones as well. But in 1986 that idea was the key step in a Nobel Prize. And it may yet turn out to be the foundation for a massive industry. Sometimes, the idea is nearly all that matters.

run4yourlives 16y ago
The fact that the idea is 24 years old and has yet to properly establish itself kinda refutes the fact that it's all that matters, doesn't it?
- michael_nielsen 16y ago
  I guess if you view winning a Nobel Prize as a failure, then yes, you've refuted my example. I doubt more than a tiny fraction of people would consider that a failure, however. Ideas can, in fact, have value, and that is a function of scarcity. A lot of entrepreneurs apparently misjudge this, thinking that, for example, their idea to create a social network for X (insert verb of choice) is somehow valuable in its own right. But in most cases X is so generic that it's not. The superconductor example I gave is an example where there really is a scarcity, and so there is value.
  - run4yourlives 16y ago
    I'm not saying that ideas have no value whatsoever, because clearly a bad idea properly executed can still be a bad idea. What I am saying though is that there are few ideas that can be not executed and/or executed poorly and still render a success. Of course success is variable, as you point out with regards to the Nobel Prize here. Assume somebody does execute a strategy to effectively monetize the superconductor described. As you point out that's a game changer on levels that will make the Nobel Prize seem rather small.
    - michael_nielsen 16y ago
      I agree, on all fronts. "Ideas don't matter, only execution does" is just a pet peeve. It's as obviously false as the notion some people have that their (totally obvious) idea is really valuable. I like Derek Sivers formulation: ideas are a multiplier on execution. With a really amazing idea (like the formula for the first high-Tc superconductors) even run-of-the-mill execution yields big returns.
  - anamax 16y ago
    > I guess if you view winning a Nobel Prize as a failure, then yes, you've refuted my example. I doubt more than a tiny fraction of people would consider that a failure, however. The point is that a Nobel prize, like VC funding, is not a biz success. It's an "attaboy" with some money attached. And for the VC funding, they expect biz success later.
retube 16y ago
No, that wasn't an idea, it was a discovery.
- btilly 16y ago
  The original idea was, "Let's look for a substance with infinite resistance at low enough temperatures." They got lucky and found the exact opposite of what they were trying to get.
  - retube 16y ago
    I can assure you they were not the first people to dream up the concept of superconductivity. (In fact Heike Onnes first observed superconductivity in frozen mercury in 1911). And even if they were, as an idea it's still worthless. My idea for a product is an anti-gravity machine. So what? Unless I can figure out how to do it, the idea is worthless. It's discovering how do it that counts.
    - btilly 16y ago
      You missed the point entirely. My point is that they weren't even looking for a superconductor. They were on a fishing expedition for a perfect resistor. As a result they took lots of interesting compounds, cooled them well below the temperature of liquid nitrogen, tried to run a current through them, and checked for resistance. The actual idea that they had? Nobody has succeeded in finding that yet.

run4yourlives 16y ago

The fact that the idea is 24 years old and has yet to properly establish itself kinda refutes the fact that it's all that matters, doesn't it?

michael_nielsen 16y ago
I guess if you view winning a Nobel Prize as a failure, then yes, you've refuted my example. I doubt more than a tiny fraction of people would consider that a failure, however. Ideas can, in fact, have value, and that is a function of scarcity. A lot of entrepreneurs apparently misjudge this, thinking that, for example, their idea to create a social network for X (insert verb of choice) is somehow valuable in its own right. But in most cases X is so generic that it's not. The superconductor example I gave is an example where there really is a scarcity, and so there is value.
- run4yourlives 16y ago
  I'm not saying that ideas have no value whatsoever, because clearly a bad idea properly executed can still be a bad idea. What I am saying though is that there are few ideas that can be not executed and/or executed poorly and still render a success. Of course success is variable, as you point out with regards to the Nobel Prize here. Assume somebody does execute a strategy to effectively monetize the superconductor described. As you point out that's a game changer on levels that will make the Nobel Prize seem rather small.
  - michael_nielsen 16y ago
    I agree, on all fronts. "Ideas don't matter, only execution does" is just a pet peeve. It's as obviously false as the notion some people have that their (totally obvious) idea is really valuable. I like Derek Sivers formulation: ideas are a multiplier on execution. With a really amazing idea (like the formula for the first high-Tc superconductors) even run-of-the-mill execution yields big returns.
- anamax 16y ago
  > I guess if you view winning a Nobel Prize as a failure, then yes, you've refuted my example. I doubt more than a tiny fraction of people would consider that a failure, however. The point is that a Nobel prize, like VC funding, is not a biz success. It's an "attaboy" with some money attached. And for the VC funding, they expect biz success later.

retube 16y ago

No, that wasn't an idea, it was a discovery.

btilly 16y ago
The original idea was, "Let's look for a substance with infinite resistance at low enough temperatures." They got lucky and found the exact opposite of what they were trying to get.
- retube 16y ago
  I can assure you they were not the first people to dream up the concept of superconductivity. (In fact Heike Onnes first observed superconductivity in frozen mercury in 1911). And even if they were, as an idea it's still worthless. My idea for a product is an anti-gravity machine. So what? Unless I can figure out how to do it, the idea is worthless. It's discovering how do it that counts.
  - btilly 16y ago
    You missed the point entirely. My point is that they weren't even looking for a superconductor. They were on a fishing expedition for a perfect resistor. As a result they took lots of interesting compounds, cooled them well below the temperature of liquid nitrogen, tried to run a current through them, and checked for resistance. The actual idea that they had? Nobody has succeeded in finding that yet.