3 ms·

and China will never let a nuclear South Korea happen. It’s possible, although highly unlikely that the RoK could go nuclear in a manner similar to Israel, and

and China will never let a nuclear South Korea happen. It’s possible, although highly unlikely that the RoK could go nuclear in a manner similar to Israel, and in essence, China wouldn’t have a say. Never say never, just based on the strength of opposition.

gozur88 9y ago
If the South Koreans wanted to go nuclear there isn't a damn thing the Chinese could do about it. It would serve them right, too, since they're mostly responsible for the mess that is North Korea.
yongjik 9y ago
Israel can do that because it always has the US at its back and it doesn't really care what Iran or Egypt think. South Korea, on the other hand, cannot hope to enjoy that kind of support (can you name one prominent Korean-American politician?), and China is its biggest trade partner. That is, South Korea has little to gain and a lot to lose by developing nukes.
- QAPereo 9y ago
  They have the same thing which any country has to gain from a nuclear arsenal; a near guarantee against outright invasion. As for Israel they did it, like Pakistan and India, because they could, and once they had no one could stop them. That’s pretty much why the DPRK wants them, although they’d probably sell the tech too.
  - yongjik 9y ago
    North Korea wants nuke because (1) they're genuinely afraid of American invasion, and (2) they're already an international pariah so additional sanctions mean little. They have something to gain from nukes, and not much to lose. As for South Korea, it can bulldoze over North Korea with conventional weapons. It doesn't need nukes to defend against North Korea. On the other hand, China has so much firepower that having a few nukes won't tip the balance much, so nukes are not much useful against China either. Now consider that South Korea is practically an island country, heavily dependent on trade. Almost all its neighbors will vehemently protest a nuclear program, and its economy will suffer greatly. AND it will increase tension in East Asia. And probably provoke Japan into its own nuclear program. Just what we need. Frankly, as a South Korean, I cannot think of a single desirable outcome that can follow a nuclear program. If we're serious about national defense, what we really need now is not nukes but a powerful navy that can secure our trade routes.
    - QAPereo 9y ago
      As for South Korea, it can bulldoze over North Korea with conventional weapons. It doesn't need nukes to defend against North Korea. On the other hand, China has so much firepower that having a few nukes won't tip the balance much, so nukes are not much useful against China either. Sure, but they’d have turned Seoul into a series of shallow craters however, and you should assume that China would use the DPRK as a proxy in another shooting war. Meanwhile having the credible ability to destroy a few major Chinese metropolitan centers probably has more of a deterrent effect than you are admitting.
      - yongjik 9y ago
        We don't need nukes to deter China (or any other country) from an all-out invasion. We already deter them by being a small, heavily populated and industrially developed, largely monocultural, and largely mountainous country, which has half a million soldiers and is only accessible via sea or through one of the world's most heavily fortified border. Invading South Korea will cost any country more than Invading Iraq cost America. It's simply not worth it. That's not saying South Korea is invincible, or there aren't any ways China can apply military pressure. A much more realistic scenario is like this: some Chinese patrol ships suddenly find a need to "protect" Chinese fishing boats from being "harassed" by South Korean coast guards patrolling its EEZ. In such a case, nukes won't help, because what are you going to do with them, bomb Beijing? Can you imagine what would happen to KOSPI index if a South Korean politician so much as made a joke about using nukes? I still fail to see the utility of nukes. Any national leader has to be batshit insane to consider invading South Korea, and if they are already that insane, I don't see how having a few nukes will suddenly cause them to back down. (Don't be fooled by North Korea: they're carefully cultivating the image of a batshit insane trigger-happy country because it benefits them.)
- dogma1138 9y ago
  Israel can afford to do it precisely because it doesn't border China. Israel established itself as a nuclear capable state way before it had any US support. Until 1967 the US was almost openly hostile towards Israel with very chilly relations, and even then it really changed until the mid 70's. Israel established its nuclear capabilities despite and against the wishes of the US through their cooperation with France and the U.K. People forget that in 1956 Israel and the U.K. nearly went directly against US peace keepers in their joint Sinai campaign after Nasser nationalized the cannal. If Israel was developing their nuclear capabilities today the US would've stopped them in a heartbeat, if they bordered China then they wouldn't even be allowed to mention it in a conversation.

gozur88 9y ago

If the South Koreans wanted to go nuclear there isn't a damn thing the Chinese could do about it. It would serve them right, too, since they're mostly responsible for the mess that is North Korea.

yongjik 9y ago

Israel can do that because it always has the US at its back and it doesn't really care what Iran or Egypt think. South Korea, on the other hand, cannot hope to enjoy that kind of support (can you name one prominent Korean-American politician?), and China is its biggest trade partner. That is, South Korea has little to gain and a lot to lose by developing nukes.

QAPereo 9y ago
They have the same thing which any country has to gain from a nuclear arsenal; a near guarantee against outright invasion. As for Israel they did it, like Pakistan and India, because they could, and once they had no one could stop them. That’s pretty much why the DPRK wants them, although they’d probably sell the tech too.
- yongjik 9y ago
  North Korea wants nuke because (1) they're genuinely afraid of American invasion, and (2) they're already an international pariah so additional sanctions mean little. They have something to gain from nukes, and not much to lose. As for South Korea, it can bulldoze over North Korea with conventional weapons. It doesn't need nukes to defend against North Korea. On the other hand, China has so much firepower that having a few nukes won't tip the balance much, so nukes are not much useful against China either. Now consider that South Korea is practically an island country, heavily dependent on trade. Almost all its neighbors will vehemently protest a nuclear program, and its economy will suffer greatly. AND it will increase tension in East Asia. And probably provoke Japan into its own nuclear program. Just what we need. Frankly, as a South Korean, I cannot think of a single desirable outcome that can follow a nuclear program. If we're serious about national defense, what we really need now is not nukes but a powerful navy that can secure our trade routes.
  - QAPereo 9y ago
    As for South Korea, it can bulldoze over North Korea with conventional weapons. It doesn't need nukes to defend against North Korea. On the other hand, China has so much firepower that having a few nukes won't tip the balance much, so nukes are not much useful against China either. Sure, but they’d have turned Seoul into a series of shallow craters however, and you should assume that China would use the DPRK as a proxy in another shooting war. Meanwhile having the credible ability to destroy a few major Chinese metropolitan centers probably has more of a deterrent effect than you are admitting.
    - yongjik 9y ago
      We don't need nukes to deter China (or any other country) from an all-out invasion. We already deter them by being a small, heavily populated and industrially developed, largely monocultural, and largely mountainous country, which has half a million soldiers and is only accessible via sea or through one of the world's most heavily fortified border. Invading South Korea will cost any country more than Invading Iraq cost America. It's simply not worth it. That's not saying South Korea is invincible, or there aren't any ways China can apply military pressure. A much more realistic scenario is like this: some Chinese patrol ships suddenly find a need to "protect" Chinese fishing boats from being "harassed" by South Korean coast guards patrolling its EEZ. In such a case, nukes won't help, because what are you going to do with them, bomb Beijing? Can you imagine what would happen to KOSPI index if a South Korean politician so much as made a joke about using nukes? I still fail to see the utility of nukes. Any national leader has to be batshit insane to consider invading South Korea, and if they are already that insane, I don't see how having a few nukes will suddenly cause them to back down. (Don't be fooled by North Korea: they're carefully cultivating the image of a batshit insane trigger-happy country because it benefits them.)
dogma1138 9y ago
Israel can afford to do it precisely because it doesn't border China. Israel established itself as a nuclear capable state way before it had any US support. Until 1967 the US was almost openly hostile towards Israel with very chilly relations, and even then it really changed until the mid 70's. Israel established its nuclear capabilities despite and against the wishes of the US through their cooperation with France and the U.K. People forget that in 1956 Israel and the U.K. nearly went directly against US peace keepers in their joint Sinai campaign after Nasser nationalized the cannal. If Israel was developing their nuclear capabilities today the US would've stopped them in a heartbeat, if they bordered China then they wouldn't even be allowed to mention it in a conversation.