6 ms·

The chances of making a successful mobile app are almost nil

47 points by uladzislau 9y ago

mch82 9y ago
One of the lessons is to move early on new platforms, it's much easier to sell an app in a store with hundreds items than millions and when rank is influenced by sales those early sales really add up. Some of the earliest apps I bought are still listed as top paid apps. The challenge is choosing the right next platform to bet development resources on... Any recommendations?
- deegles 9y ago
  Alexa!
  - newbear 9y ago
    Are you making apps for Alexa? What are you making? Do you think it's worth it to learn without ML/AI knowledge?
    - felixgallo 9y ago
      Alexa Skills don't require any AI/ML knowledge of you; that part's already handled, so getting onboard is very easy. Disclaimer: work on Alexa.
- WalterSear 9y ago
  AR apps and websites, if you can squeeze yourself in between the behemoths.
- mch82 9y ago
  Every once in a while Apple still gives developers a mini opportunity to be early in a small featured segment of apps. For a while they featured books made with iBooks Author. Now, they're probably going to feature apps with ARKit. Watch apps still seem relatively early...
- reysc 9y ago
  The web!
- mathgenius 9y ago
  Looks like crypto is becoming a "platform". Worth looking into.
Clubber 9y ago
This was all true 5 years ago. When the App Store was announced, I bought a Mac and learned Obj-C and wrote a few apps. The most successful took off out of nowhere because someone wrote an article about it. It was on the top charts in my category and it paid for my truck, but not enough to retire on. It was a great ride while it lasted. I still get a little residual now and then from it. Maybe enough to buy lunch once a month. I stopped writing apps probably 5 years ago when the market became super saturated. Like the article says, it's all about marketing. The players with deep pockets dominate and the programming Joe doesn't have a chance in hell anymore.
- futun 9y ago
  Agreed. And sadly, starting about 5 years ago schools started churning out kids that had studied app development, marketing and business models. And they're still churning them out...
EGreg 9y ago
Just like websites, viral effects play a major role for apps. Both people inviting people, as well as media outlets writing about you. That's how you get your stuff out there, in a market where there is huge long tail.
- rudedogg 9y ago
  I agree, unfortunately getting published seems really difficult. I released a Mac app and wrote to every Mac publication I could find - probably 30 - and never received a single response. The app had/has some rough edges and could use some more polish, but it was fairly novel.
devdad 9y ago
Apps that are anchored in the real world is a space that still has plenty of room. But they also require lots of extra work, since physical goods or actual people are involved.
txmx2000 9y ago
Apple should charge a fee to list an app in the App Store. Something like $10/month for any app that is monetized in any way. After all the junk apps go away it’ll be easier for users to find quality apps.
z3t4 9y ago
They could just close the app store then. (sarcasm) The market is saturated. But it's also huge, and things move faster then before.
ringaroundthetx 9y ago
Your changes of being successful making unsuccessful mobile apps for other people are almost 100%
scarface74 9y ago
It’s not any easier or harder to make money as an independent mobile developer than any other kind of independent developer. I made a living as a “mobile developer” back in 2008 doing Windows Mobile for a company. I believe in two years if I actually wanted to,I could go from not knowing how to develop for any modern mobile platform, to finding a job as a mobile developer making more than 99% of the independent developers.
- Clubber 9y ago
  In my experience, the job market for mobile is significantly smaller, at least in my neck of the woods. Also, working for someone else, even as a contractor isn't ideal. Ideally we would want to own our own product, but as the article states, that's no longer a cottage industry.
  - scarface74 9y ago
    Why is that “ideal” for everyone? My ideal is knowing that I’m going to get paid every two weeks and sleeping well not caring if the venture I work for goes belly up knowing that I can get another job quickly. When considering risks, the payout from working for a company is greater. Most of the popular mobile apps require a team of engineers, marketers, and funding.
    - Clubber 9y ago
      Well it's not ideal for everyone, but when you own your own product, you can't be fired on a whim.
      - scarface74 9y ago
        But you can spend months on a project and it fail and not make any money from it. Whether a product fails for a company you work for, you still get paid. If you are a developer in a decent market (not necessarily SV) and you keep your skills up, getting another job is relatively easy. It has never in 20+ years taken me more than a month from the time I started looking to getting a comparable job or better. My record from starting to look to getting an offer from what was then a Fortune 10 company was four days.

47 points by uladzislau 9y ago

One of the lessons is to move early on new platforms, it's much easier to sell an app in a store with hundreds items than millions and when rank is influenced by sales those early sales really add up. Some of the earliest apps I bought are still listed as top paid apps. The challenge is choosing the right next platform to bet development resources on... Any recommendations?

deegles 9y ago
Alexa!
- newbear 9y ago
  Are you making apps for Alexa? What are you making? Do you think it's worth it to learn without ML/AI knowledge?
  - felixgallo 9y ago
    Alexa Skills don't require any AI/ML knowledge of you; that part's already handled, so getting onboard is very easy. Disclaimer: work on Alexa.
WalterSear 9y ago
AR apps and websites, if you can squeeze yourself in between the behemoths.
mch82 9y ago
Every once in a while Apple still gives developers a mini opportunity to be early in a small featured segment of apps. For a while they featured books made with iBooks Author. Now, they're probably going to feature apps with ARKit. Watch apps still seem relatively early...
reysc 9y ago
The web!
mathgenius 9y ago
Looks like crypto is becoming a "platform". Worth looking into.

Clubber 9y ago

This was all true 5 years ago. When the App Store was announced, I bought a Mac and learned Obj-C and wrote a few apps. The most successful took off out of nowhere because someone wrote an article about it. It was on the top charts in my category and it paid for my truck, but not enough to retire on. It was a great ride while it lasted. I still get a little residual now and then from it. Maybe enough to buy lunch once a month. I stopped writing apps probably 5 years ago when the market became super saturated. Like the article says, it's all about marketing. The players with deep pockets dominate and the programming Joe doesn't have a chance in hell anymore.

futun 9y ago
Agreed. And sadly, starting about 5 years ago schools started churning out kids that had studied app development, marketing and business models. And they're still churning them out...

EGreg 9y ago

Just like websites, viral effects play a major role for apps. Both people inviting people, as well as media outlets writing about you. That's how you get your stuff out there, in a market where there is huge long tail.

rudedogg 9y ago
I agree, unfortunately getting published seems really difficult. I released a Mac app and wrote to every Mac publication I could find - probably 30 - and never received a single response. The app had/has some rough edges and could use some more polish, but it was fairly novel.

devdad 9y ago

Apps that are anchored in the real world is a space that still has plenty of room. But they also require lots of extra work, since physical goods or actual people are involved.

txmx2000 9y ago

Apple should charge a fee to list an app in the App Store. Something like $10/month for any app that is monetized in any way. After all the junk apps go away it’ll be easier for users to find quality apps.

z3t4 9y ago

They could just close the app store then. (sarcasm) The market is saturated. But it's also huge, and things move faster then before.

ringaroundthetx 9y ago

Your changes of being successful making unsuccessful mobile apps for other people are almost 100%

scarface74 9y ago

It’s not any easier or harder to make money as an independent mobile developer than any other kind of independent developer. I made a living as a “mobile developer” back in 2008 doing Windows Mobile for a company. I believe in two years if I actually wanted to,I could go from not knowing how to develop for any modern mobile platform, to finding a job as a mobile developer making more than 99% of the independent developers.

Clubber 9y ago
In my experience, the job market for mobile is significantly smaller, at least in my neck of the woods. Also, working for someone else, even as a contractor isn't ideal. Ideally we would want to own our own product, but as the article states, that's no longer a cottage industry.
- scarface74 9y ago
  Why is that “ideal” for everyone? My ideal is knowing that I’m going to get paid every two weeks and sleeping well not caring if the venture I work for goes belly up knowing that I can get another job quickly. When considering risks, the payout from working for a company is greater. Most of the popular mobile apps require a team of engineers, marketers, and funding.
  - Clubber 9y ago
    Well it's not ideal for everyone, but when you own your own product, you can't be fired on a whim.
    - scarface74 9y ago
      But you can spend months on a project and it fail and not make any money from it. Whether a product fails for a company you work for, you still get paid. If you are a developer in a decent market (not necessarily SV) and you keep your skills up, getting another job is relatively easy. It has never in 20+ years taken me more than a month from the time I started looking to getting a comparable job or better. My record from starting to look to getting an offer from what was then a Fortune 10 company was four days.