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Ask HN: Which company do you think will survive longer, Google or Facebook?
Going by the increase in facebook's revenues, it seems it is likely to catch Google in operating profits very soon. Both companies have near monopoly in their domains. Which of these 2 do you think will manage to remain powerful longer?
- JPLeRouzic 9y agoThe lifetime of a large company depends usually on the way it manages their wealth, it does not depend on one or two "smart ideas, or well defined markets". So IMO both should have a long life (like Ford). But the life time of a company that relies on only a few markets, is much shorter (~20 years). Complexity is inherent to long life. To give more context: Truly huge companies like Google or Facebook are actually conglomerates of thousands of informal tiny companies, that often are their main competition. Look for example to the large number of projects that Google created or companies it bought and then closed two years later. Each time there was people behind those projects, for them it was a huge stress when their project was dropped. This way to manage companies, helps their board to control competition by internalizing it. Think "The Soul of a New Machine" by Tracy Kidder on steroids.
- PaulHoule 9y agoAre they really diversified though?
- JPLeRouzic 9y agoBy "they" do you mean the board or the company as seen by accounting documents? Google revenues can be viewed in several ways, in one of them it is not diversified at all as in 2016, 71% of their revenues came from Googles sites. In another interpretation, they are very diversified, as this 71% revenue stream comes from a set of diverse sources. In yet another interpretation they are quite diversified as the USA provides quite half of their revenues. Accounting could tell very different stories with the same numbers. For the board, if the revenues are steadily increasing it shows they understand their world, which is not a trivial thing at all. It is basically the difference between strategy and post mortem analysis. One is easier to do than the other.
- LarryMade2 9y agoI think Facebook is a more fickle platform very dependent on user interaction and participation, if something shinier comes along that connect users more conveniently than facebook they'd likely be rushing to it. Also there are many who wouldn't mind facebook gone to bury stuff they have done in the past on it. Google has a lot of self-generated value which would take a lot more effort to compete with, as we've seen many google killers have come and gone with claims of superiority only to have their offerings revealed as lacking in comparison. Again if something shinier game along that Google was unequipped to handle, you might see a fork in preferences, and then opportunities for others start to arise.
- cm2012 9y agoI am an advertiser and have managed millions in spend on both. Facebook just blows me away with its innovations. Google has been playing catchup for two plus years.
- muzani 9y agoI'd bet on Google/Alphabet for sure. 1. Product Facebook is basically a giant directory. Google is a search engine. Search engines are necessary to get any information anywhere. While Google doesn't have as much of a monopoly on this (i.e. Bing, Baidu, DDG), it is still the best by far and this alone is invaluable. 2. Side products Google has a lot of other killer side products - Waze, YouTube, self driving cars, Android. Facebook has... React, WhatsApp, and Instagram. Just Android alone gives them more power than Facebook. 3. Productivity Google regularly pushes the envelope on workplace innovation - 10% time, healthy catering, meditation. Facebook has open offices and they work on one of the most distracting websites in the world. They are no contenders to the legendary Bell Labs. In a race, I would say that Google will win. 4. AI AI will likely be the next big thing. Both are doing well in AI, but Google has been doing it longer. Google also has more important data and a broader perspective of how it all links together.
- dabockster 9y agoWith the recent political ramblings about Facebook, I don't see them sticking around too long. I give them 3-5 years max. Google, meanwhile, has enough products and services to keep going far into the future. However, I do expect them to continue to grow slower and more into a sort of IBM for the internet.
- crispytx 9y agoGoogle