6 ms·

I don't mean to imply anything about the poster of this article in particular, but I seem to recall a saying something like... When your uncle the mechanic sta

I don't mean to imply anything about the poster of this article in particular, but I seem to recall a saying something like... When your uncle the mechanic starts giving stock tips, you know a bubble is brewing. I think we're already in the middle of a web/mobile/social app bubble.

rjett 16y ago
Meh you could probably make a decent case for why we are in the middle of a web/mobile/social app bubble, but I think the Gold Rush mentality has always been prevalent with the internet from the very beginning. Because of the very low overhead required to begin construction of a website/webapp/mobile app/etc and because at first glance, the whole world is your market, noobs think they should be able to easily stake a claim in this world. Until one dives into this world though, one doesn't realize the complexity of the code needed to get simple tasks to function properly and the footwork needed to get people interested in what you're doing. The misconception of "internet money" is exactly what Southpark made fun of a few years back (Season 12 e04). That being said, I'm rooting for Proud Noob. Do I think he'll succeed? No, if succeeding means supporting himself on the creation of this mobile app. Do I think he'll learn a lot in the process if he sticks to his goals? Absolutely.
- emilepetrone 16y ago
  Thanks for the support!
nlh 16y ago
So this is an interesting point that's worth exploring. I hear what you're saying (everyone and his brother is trying to make a buck making apps these days) but..... I do kinda think that making apps is actually creating something vs. day trading (profiting on volatility/others' mania) vs. mortgage brokering (profiting on volatility/others' mania) vs. real estate flipping (profiting on volatility/others' mania). So while there may be a "development bubble", I think it can only really be a good thing. More creativity. Now, when it stops becoming profitable to do so (i.e. app prices / advertising revenue reverts to the mean) then you'll see the opportunistic types vanish. But I think deciding to build/create applications in and of itself shouldn't be seen as a bad thing...
- emilepetrone 16y ago
  This comment is the best one I've read tonight. Thanks for the reply - totally agree. But I'm not sure of the development bubble piece- if there were sites starting with i,e, or x popping up everywhere, I'd be very scared haha
- GBond 16y ago
  Good points. I would add that "bad" bubbles are artificial and unhealthy factors to inflate it whereas in good bubbles don't.
- Hovertruck 16y ago
  Just to throw it out there, doesn't Farmville count as profiting on others' mania?
emilepetrone 16y ago
Social yes, mobile no.
- csomar 16y ago
  I'm bored of social websites. I'm sick of any new social web service. I'm amazed of any new mobile app. With iphone, Android, HPalm, Wmobile 7... and all this race to create apps that sell to the masses, don't you think we are really in the middle of a mobile (smartphone) bubble?
  - emilepetrone 16y ago
    Agree with your first statement. I disagree with the second. The phone will revolutionize everything because it is portable, is constantly running, GPS, camera, video, etc. These are massive advances that are just starting to take off. Why does the tech community forget there are billions of people out there who have never heard of Twitter? This is the start, and I'm not missing it for the world. That's why I moved to San Francisco, and that's why I'm learning to code. (Sorry if I got a little Braveheart in this comment haha)
  - cema 16y ago
    I'm bored of social websites. Uh-huh. Do you consider Hackers News a social website?
    - csomar 16y ago
      Yes, but different is some ways. There are valuable discussions that happens here and that are improving my experience. This is why I log here and spend around 2-3 hours a day. I really don't feel that productive when using Twitter and Facebook.
    - RodgerTheGreat 16y ago
      With rare exceptions, Hacker News comments are not about the people, they're about the content. I read HN because it has a generally excellent signal to noise ratio. If "social websites" encompass anything that allows a viewer to post a comment then even the guestbooks of ages past would be considered social.
pinchyfingers 16y ago
Don't forget casual/social games! There still tons of money to be made, but it sure looks like a bubble.
- emilepetrone 16y ago
  I think there will always be money in 'Fun'
ryan-allen 16y ago
If the guy discovers a love for programming and creating things then it'll all be worth it. I fell into programming by accident and I'm so glad I did!
- emilepetrone 16y ago
  I already have the love for creating things, I just need to develop the programming- so yep you hit it right on the head! ...more to come in today's post
nadam 16y ago
I agree. That's why I've decided to focus on a non web/mobile/social and a technically non-trivial topic as my new startup. - Non web/mobile/social, because web/mobile/social is highly saturated and overhyped - Technically non-trivial, because as an engineer/geek type I have some competitive andvantages there against people like the OP.
- emilepetrone 16y ago
  Good luck Nadam!
  - nadam 16y ago
    Thanks and the same to you! (I did not want to sound offensive, I've just realized that I am not especially good in creating small consumer applications (and there are crazy amount of competitors), so instead I do something which fits more what I am good at, needs more programming/algorithmization experience, and there are less competitors.)
thedjpetersen 16y ago
I don't think it is the same. A bubble in the stock market is when there is too much money flowing into overvalued stocks. Too many developers will only raise the bar for apps in those fields, and raise the profile of the fields that you mentioned.

rjett 16y ago

Meh you could probably make a decent case for why we are in the middle of a web/mobile/social app bubble, but I think the Gold Rush mentality has always been prevalent with the internet from the very beginning. Because of the very low overhead required to begin construction of a website/webapp/mobile app/etc and because at first glance, the whole world is your market, noobs think they should be able to easily stake a claim in this world. Until one dives into this world though, one doesn't realize the complexity of the code needed to get simple tasks to function properly and the footwork needed to get people interested in what you're doing. The misconception of "internet money" is exactly what Southpark made fun of a few years back (Season 12 e04). That being said, I'm rooting for Proud Noob. Do I think he'll succeed? No, if succeeding means supporting himself on the creation of this mobile app. Do I think he'll learn a lot in the process if he sticks to his goals? Absolutely.

emilepetrone 16y ago
Thanks for the support!

nlh 16y ago

So this is an interesting point that's worth exploring. I hear what you're saying (everyone and his brother is trying to make a buck making apps these days) but..... I do kinda think that making apps is actually creating something vs. day trading (profiting on volatility/others' mania) vs. mortgage brokering (profiting on volatility/others' mania) vs. real estate flipping (profiting on volatility/others' mania). So while there may be a "development bubble", I think it can only really be a good thing. More creativity. Now, when it stops becoming profitable to do so (i.e. app prices / advertising revenue reverts to the mean) then you'll see the opportunistic types vanish. But I think deciding to build/create applications in and of itself shouldn't be seen as a bad thing...

emilepetrone 16y ago
This comment is the best one I've read tonight. Thanks for the reply - totally agree. But I'm not sure of the development bubble piece- if there were sites starting with i,e, or x popping up everywhere, I'd be very scared haha
GBond 16y ago
Good points. I would add that "bad" bubbles are artificial and unhealthy factors to inflate it whereas in good bubbles don't.
Hovertruck 16y ago
Just to throw it out there, doesn't Farmville count as profiting on others' mania?

emilepetrone 16y ago

Social yes, mobile no.

csomar 16y ago
I'm bored of social websites. I'm sick of any new social web service. I'm amazed of any new mobile app. With iphone, Android, HPalm, Wmobile 7... and all this race to create apps that sell to the masses, don't you think we are really in the middle of a mobile (smartphone) bubble?
- emilepetrone 16y ago
  Agree with your first statement. I disagree with the second. The phone will revolutionize everything because it is portable, is constantly running, GPS, camera, video, etc. These are massive advances that are just starting to take off. Why does the tech community forget there are billions of people out there who have never heard of Twitter? This is the start, and I'm not missing it for the world. That's why I moved to San Francisco, and that's why I'm learning to code. (Sorry if I got a little Braveheart in this comment haha)
- cema 16y ago
  I'm bored of social websites. Uh-huh. Do you consider Hackers News a social website?
  - csomar 16y ago
    Yes, but different is some ways. There are valuable discussions that happens here and that are improving my experience. This is why I log here and spend around 2-3 hours a day. I really don't feel that productive when using Twitter and Facebook.
  - RodgerTheGreat 16y ago
    With rare exceptions, Hacker News comments are not about the people, they're about the content. I read HN because it has a generally excellent signal to noise ratio. If "social websites" encompass anything that allows a viewer to post a comment then even the guestbooks of ages past would be considered social.

pinchyfingers 16y ago

Don't forget casual/social games! There still tons of money to be made, but it sure looks like a bubble.

emilepetrone 16y ago
I think there will always be money in 'Fun'

ryan-allen 16y ago

If the guy discovers a love for programming and creating things then it'll all be worth it. I fell into programming by accident and I'm so glad I did!

emilepetrone 16y ago
I already have the love for creating things, I just need to develop the programming- so yep you hit it right on the head! ...more to come in today's post

nadam 16y ago

I agree. That's why I've decided to focus on a non web/mobile/social and a technically non-trivial topic as my new startup. - Non web/mobile/social, because web/mobile/social is highly saturated and overhyped - Technically non-trivial, because as an engineer/geek type I have some competitive andvantages there against people like the OP.

emilepetrone 16y ago
Good luck Nadam!
- nadam 16y ago
  Thanks and the same to you! (I did not want to sound offensive, I've just realized that I am not especially good in creating small consumer applications (and there are crazy amount of competitors), so instead I do something which fits more what I am good at, needs more programming/algorithmization experience, and there are less competitors.)

thedjpetersen 16y ago

I don't think it is the same. A bubble in the stock market is when there is too much money flowing into overvalued stocks. Too many developers will only raise the bar for apps in those fields, and raise the profile of the fields that you mentioned.