5 ms·

Huh? What is your bar for "done growing". Because the rest of the normal publicly traded market doesn't grow revenue at 50+ percent a year. The average for the

Huh? What is your bar for "done growing". Because the rest of the normal publicly traded market doesn't grow revenue at 50+ percent a year. The average for the S&P 500 is something more like 3-4 percent revenue growth per year. From data in the MongoDB S-1: 2016 yoy revenue growth: 58% 2017 yoy revenue growth: 55% MongoDB is part of the same thesis as something like Twilio -- they IPO'ed over a year ago with the same belief around differentiating via developer-centric customer acquisition. Twilio is still putting up ~70% yoy growth.

bduerst 9y ago
Tech startups are typically viewed as "growth" companies. They'll need to maintain ~30% YoY post-IPO to keep a steady market price.
KGIII 9y ago
Twilio's growth is exciting but it isn't reflected in their stock price. Every few weeks, I find myself going back to look at their share prices. Each time, I'm tempted to pull the trigger and invest a moderate five digit sum. I just can't go through with it. I usually buy and hold, long-term investing, and Twilio is one that I've been monitoring since their IPO. I'd probably pull the trigger if I saw just a bit more fluctuation. It hasn't necessarily got to be just growth, but some fluctuation just to indicate that they are doing something of note. For 70% yoy growth, it doesn't seem to be really impacting the company's valuation. I'd just checked it earlier this week, and just checked again now, and it's pretty much been the same price for a while now.
- nikcub 9y ago
  Twilio is trading at 10x revenue - which is what an expensive strategic SaaS acquisitions would sell at. The average is 4x[0] - its crazy overpriced even with the growth rate (it's still growing into its valuation) I think the price was driven up to 20x because many thought it would be acquired. It also has a ton of short interest in it - so you really shouldn't be investing in it at this point. Do some more research outside of what the price is doing before doing anything (there are undervalued stocks out there) [0] https://qph.ec.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-c6817033630aaf74d05421472b34cf99.webp https://qph.ec.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-c6817033630aaf74d05421...
  - KGIII 9y ago
    Yeah, I doubt I'll be investing in them. I can afford to park money in the long-term and take some risks but this one just seems stagnant. Most of my assets are managed by a financial manager, but I do like to dabble with a smaller fund that I can risk losing entirely. I've actually had pretty good results, considering I'm not really skilled at this. One of my methods is to simply read comments at sites like HN, Slashdot, Fark, and maybe even Reddit. I look for companies who are getting free publicity and are being reviewed by people who know more about the tech/business than I do. I then go watch the trading volume and look for fluctuations. I'll read everything I can find about the company, including things like comments from employees at sites where employees anonymously rate their employer. So far, it has been pretty successful. I made some pretty good money on Yahoo! at one point. I also bought ~$20,000 worth of Tesla when it was priced at $24. I still own those, I've not sold them. There have been a few others and they've done well enough. I am absolutely not skilled at this. I mostly just buy and hold and plan on selling when it reaches a certain price. I don't have any of it automated, or anything like that. I've never tried to short or do put options. I'm not even entirely sure what the last one is. It is just me playing around and learning as I go. I never spend anything that I can't afford to lose. I tend to go really slow and do a lot of reading before buying anything. I've also had some luck with a slightly modified method. When I go to the grocery store, I'll look and see what brands are most frequently in carts and what isn't fully stocked on the shelf. I'll then look up the parent company and make a note of it. If I see that brand continually in shopping carts (I peek, I don't ogle or take pictures) then I'll do more reading and buy some shars in their parent companies. I notice that they seem to have continual but slower growth than the tech companies. It's more or less just a game. I'd absolutely not take investment advice from me and I'm pretty sure my methods are unsound and probably unorthodox. I am absolutely open to advice, however. So, with that, I thank you immensely. I'll continue to keep an eye on Twilio but I won't jump in just yet. I may never jump in at all. It's just on my, 'mentioned positively a lot list.'
    - nikcub 9y ago
      > One of my methods is to simply read comments at sites like HN, Slashdot, Fark, and maybe even Reddit. That's a great idea and I've found companies exactly like that (although as private companies - scouting for a VC). We're really in an advantageous position working in tech because we know which companies are doing well and where companies are spending their money. One disadvantage is that a lot of gains are privatized or with VCs - and some of the best performing companies remain private for longer - but there is still some growth in public markets I tend to follow the cloud, infosec, social and other tech public companies. I think the SaaS stocks are a bit overvalued at the moment, and there are too many that spend too much on sales and marketing to fuel growth. One of the great benefits of SaaS was that it could infiltrate companies from the bottom up and bypass the S&M process and customer acquisition costs, but there really aren't many of those - and even those companies that did do that, have ended up spending a lot on S&M I did like Twilio a lot - I liked the Authy acquisition and growing out that way. I'm not sold on the "integration without programming" promise - a lot of companies have tried just that but it hasn't worked. You need dev platforms and developers. I was hoping Twilio would provide a drop-in oauth/openid server for enterprise because the current solutions there suck (serve both internal, intra and external auth backed by LDAP, AD, RDBMS etc.) Theres a lot of value in their global integrations and routing - but i'm also not sure what the ceiling is for voice + SMS and outside of a handful of countries in emerging markets most messaging is application layer. Being able to push messages via WeChat, FB, WhatsApp etc. would be interesting But you're right - can't go wrong with long term investments in these markets - either a fund or a basket of stocks you know. The Motley Fool posts are usually good value on getting up to date on some stocks, although there is a lot of people talking up or down their own investments there with what borders on FUD sometimes.

bduerst 9y ago

Tech startups are typically viewed as "growth" companies. They'll need to maintain ~30% YoY post-IPO to keep a steady market price.

KGIII 9y ago

Twilio's growth is exciting but it isn't reflected in their stock price. Every few weeks, I find myself going back to look at their share prices. Each time, I'm tempted to pull the trigger and invest a moderate five digit sum. I just can't go through with it. I usually buy and hold, long-term investing, and Twilio is one that I've been monitoring since their IPO. I'd probably pull the trigger if I saw just a bit more fluctuation. It hasn't necessarily got to be just growth, but some fluctuation just to indicate that they are doing something of note. For 70% yoy growth, it doesn't seem to be really impacting the company's valuation. I'd just checked it earlier this week, and just checked again now, and it's pretty much been the same price for a while now.

nikcub 9y ago
Twilio is trading at 10x revenue - which is what an expensive strategic SaaS acquisitions would sell at. The average is 4x[0] - its crazy overpriced even with the growth rate (it's still growing into its valuation) I think the price was driven up to 20x because many thought it would be acquired. It also has a ton of short interest in it - so you really shouldn't be investing in it at this point. Do some more research outside of what the price is doing before doing anything (there are undervalued stocks out there) [0] https://qph.ec.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-c6817033630aaf74d05421472b34cf99.webp https://qph.ec.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-c6817033630aaf74d05421...
- KGIII 9y ago
  Yeah, I doubt I'll be investing in them. I can afford to park money in the long-term and take some risks but this one just seems stagnant. Most of my assets are managed by a financial manager, but I do like to dabble with a smaller fund that I can risk losing entirely. I've actually had pretty good results, considering I'm not really skilled at this. One of my methods is to simply read comments at sites like HN, Slashdot, Fark, and maybe even Reddit. I look for companies who are getting free publicity and are being reviewed by people who know more about the tech/business than I do. I then go watch the trading volume and look for fluctuations. I'll read everything I can find about the company, including things like comments from employees at sites where employees anonymously rate their employer. So far, it has been pretty successful. I made some pretty good money on Yahoo! at one point. I also bought ~$20,000 worth of Tesla when it was priced at $24. I still own those, I've not sold them. There have been a few others and they've done well enough. I am absolutely not skilled at this. I mostly just buy and hold and plan on selling when it reaches a certain price. I don't have any of it automated, or anything like that. I've never tried to short or do put options. I'm not even entirely sure what the last one is. It is just me playing around and learning as I go. I never spend anything that I can't afford to lose. I tend to go really slow and do a lot of reading before buying anything. I've also had some luck with a slightly modified method. When I go to the grocery store, I'll look and see what brands are most frequently in carts and what isn't fully stocked on the shelf. I'll then look up the parent company and make a note of it. If I see that brand continually in shopping carts (I peek, I don't ogle or take pictures) then I'll do more reading and buy some shars in their parent companies. I notice that they seem to have continual but slower growth than the tech companies. It's more or less just a game. I'd absolutely not take investment advice from me and I'm pretty sure my methods are unsound and probably unorthodox. I am absolutely open to advice, however. So, with that, I thank you immensely. I'll continue to keep an eye on Twilio but I won't jump in just yet. I may never jump in at all. It's just on my, 'mentioned positively a lot list.'
  - nikcub 9y ago
    > One of my methods is to simply read comments at sites like HN, Slashdot, Fark, and maybe even Reddit. That's a great idea and I've found companies exactly like that (although as private companies - scouting for a VC). We're really in an advantageous position working in tech because we know which companies are doing well and where companies are spending their money. One disadvantage is that a lot of gains are privatized or with VCs - and some of the best performing companies remain private for longer - but there is still some growth in public markets I tend to follow the cloud, infosec, social and other tech public companies. I think the SaaS stocks are a bit overvalued at the moment, and there are too many that spend too much on sales and marketing to fuel growth. One of the great benefits of SaaS was that it could infiltrate companies from the bottom up and bypass the S&M process and customer acquisition costs, but there really aren't many of those - and even those companies that did do that, have ended up spending a lot on S&M I did like Twilio a lot - I liked the Authy acquisition and growing out that way. I'm not sold on the "integration without programming" promise - a lot of companies have tried just that but it hasn't worked. You need dev platforms and developers. I was hoping Twilio would provide a drop-in oauth/openid server for enterprise because the current solutions there suck (serve both internal, intra and external auth backed by LDAP, AD, RDBMS etc.) Theres a lot of value in their global integrations and routing - but i'm also not sure what the ceiling is for voice + SMS and outside of a handful of countries in emerging markets most messaging is application layer. Being able to push messages via WeChat, FB, WhatsApp etc. would be interesting But you're right - can't go wrong with long term investments in these markets - either a fund or a basket of stocks you know. The Motley Fool posts are usually good value on getting up to date on some stocks, although there is a lot of people talking up or down their own investments there with what borders on FUD sometimes.