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People say this every time the price has a sharp increase, but after seeing this happen repeatedly, I'm convinced its simply a price correction that swings too

by lojack 9y ago

People say this every time the price has a sharp increase, but after seeing this happen repeatedly, I'm convinced its simply a price correction that swings too far into an overcorrection and eventually comes back to the intrinsic value. But, perhaps I'll be wrong and the price will one day come crashing down to zero, I've just seen literally zero evidence of this happening. Edit: s/actual/intrinstic/

lawpoop 9y ago
What is the "actual" price? Can you point to a day in the past when bitcoin was at its actual price, instead of in a swing? How about today's price? Is it in the swing, or is it actual?
- lojack 9y ago
  Sorry for being less specific, I meant intrinsic value
  - lawpoop 9y ago
    How can one tell if the price coincides with intrinsic value? If you and I looked at a chart of the history of btc prices, where would the match points be? In between highs and lows?
tdb7893 9y ago
Even discounting the possibility of a catastrophic crash bitcoin is a pretty risky investment because it's relatively new and unknown compared to most ways that normal people invest. Nothing wrong with some bitcoin as long as it's only a part of a larger investment portfolio, though.
- lojack 9y ago
  Very much agreed.
dogruck 9y ago
I understand your argument as "bitcoin hasn't crashed yet, therefore I see no evidence that it will ever crash."
- lojack 9y ago
  You're cherry picking my argument. My point was that we've seen this happen numerous times in the past to the point where its a trend. Every other time we saw this pattern, the price ended up higher than where it started. So, its more "bitcoin hasn't crashed yet, and has exhibited this trend before and didn't crash then, therefore if I'm not wrong and its still following this trend then it will not crash"
  - dogruck 9y ago
    Ok fair point. I agree that any particular downswing in bitcoin's price is not predictive of a total crash.

by lojack 9y ago

lawpoop 9y ago

What is the "actual" price? Can you point to a day in the past when bitcoin was at its actual price, instead of in a swing? How about today's price? Is it in the swing, or is it actual?

lojack 9y ago
Sorry for being less specific, I meant intrinsic value
- lawpoop 9y ago
  How can one tell if the price coincides with intrinsic value? If you and I looked at a chart of the history of btc prices, where would the match points be? In between highs and lows?

tdb7893 9y ago

Even discounting the possibility of a catastrophic crash bitcoin is a pretty risky investment because it's relatively new and unknown compared to most ways that normal people invest. Nothing wrong with some bitcoin as long as it's only a part of a larger investment portfolio, though.

lojack 9y ago
Very much agreed.

dogruck 9y ago

I understand your argument as "bitcoin hasn't crashed yet, therefore I see no evidence that it will ever crash."

lojack 9y ago
You're cherry picking my argument. My point was that we've seen this happen numerous times in the past to the point where its a trend. Every other time we saw this pattern, the price ended up higher than where it started. So, its more "bitcoin hasn't crashed yet, and has exhibited this trend before and didn't crash then, therefore if I'm not wrong and its still following this trend then it will not crash"
- dogruck 9y ago
  Ok fair point. I agree that any particular downswing in bitcoin's price is not predictive of a total crash.