4 ms·
Research like this is dangerous. > We tentatively plan to randomly select 3,000 individuals across two US states to participate in the study: 1,000 will receiv
by throwaway0255 9y ago
Research like this is dangerous.
> We tentatively plan to randomly select 3,000 individuals across two US states to participate in the study: 1,000 will receive $1,000 per month for up to 5 years, and 2,000 will receive $50 per month and serve as a control group for comparison.
Is this a joke? This may as well read: "We'd like to research the effects of Universal Basic Income. We tentatively plan to select 300 individuals from opposite sides of a freeway: 100 will receive a free roast beef sandwich, and 200 will receive a pack of airline peanuts and serve as a control group for comparison."
UBI costs 1- to 2-million dollars PER HEAD to simulate. You can't cut corners on this and still expect to get relevant data. Not only are you not getting the data you want on how UBI would affect human behavior on the scale of a lifetime, you're also totally ignoring the greater sociological impact and resulting economic impact.
The 5-year span is too short to impact human behavior, the 1000-person headcount is too small to observe any greater sociological or economic impact, and the source of the funding (willing voluntary participants interested in UBI) means we're getting zero data on how the public would feel about being forced to fund this.
This research addresses literally none of the strongest arguments against UBI.
Maybe this is cynical, but I think they might already know all of this. They're just doing it anyway because they know a horn offering 5 years of free money will get their blog a lot of attention, and they know the results of this "research" will be biased toward the pro-UBI result they already want.
I guess we can all look forward to decades of liberal arts majors citing the outcome of this research as if it means anything. It's really unfortunate too, because these are the issues that really matter.
People spend all their energy arguing about race and sex and abortion and gay marriage and cops and who gets to use which bathroom, but nothing impacts human prosperity (and suffering and death and peace and war) the way macroeconomics can. That's when policy gets real and impacts people on a scale with a lot of zeroes on the end, and when enough people are misinformed about something like this, it has the potential to take humanity down a very dark path.