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If self-replicating automated interstellar probes are possible, then given the size and age of the galaxy, they're inevitable -- and then so is a galaxy that's

If self-replicating automated interstellar probes are possible, then given the size and age of the galaxy, they're inevitable -- and then so is a galaxy that's rife with them. So where are they? Either self-replicating interstellar probes are impossible, or we're the first or only civilization to approach the ability to launch them.

jandrese 9y ago
The Fermi paradox. IMHO the answer is: Once you have the technology necessary to travel interstellar distances, you no longer need to. Species are stuck in their own solar systems because leaving doesn't make much sense. The resources (including available space) in our solar system are nearly unlimited at the human scale, why take a staggeringly expensive and hazardous trip to some distant solar system for just more of the same?
- Florin_Andrei 9y ago
  That would mean conscious beings are stuck forever to their systems of origin. I really, really want to revolt against this law, if it's really a law. Not sure why. I just do.
  - jandrese 9y ago
    IMHO it is one of the best possibilities for the Fermi Paradox. Way better than the Dark Forest, we're alone, or all intelligent species destroy themselves alternatives. At least with this there is the possibility for our long range probes to make contact and exchange culture/technology.
caf 9y ago
Imagine there was one, or even a dozen such probes in our solar system right now. Would we notice?
- pklausler 9y ago
  Briefly, until the Earth was gobbled up for material to make new self-replicating interstellar probes. Evolution would ensure that the probes would be voraciously reproducing as quickly as physically possible.
  - caf 9y ago
    The numerical argument that the age of the galaxy gives sufficient time that it should be well-covered with probes seems reasonable. However, extending that argument to "...and the various probes will have then competed in a Darwinian struggle leaving only a few voracious survivors causing a galactic-scale grey-goo scenario." does not seem especially well supported.

jandrese 9y ago

The Fermi paradox. IMHO the answer is: Once you have the technology necessary to travel interstellar distances, you no longer need to. Species are stuck in their own solar systems because leaving doesn't make much sense. The resources (including available space) in our solar system are nearly unlimited at the human scale, why take a staggeringly expensive and hazardous trip to some distant solar system for just more of the same?

Florin_Andrei 9y ago
That would mean conscious beings are stuck forever to their systems of origin. I really, really want to revolt against this law, if it's really a law. Not sure why. I just do.
- jandrese 9y ago
  IMHO it is one of the best possibilities for the Fermi Paradox. Way better than the Dark Forest, we're alone, or all intelligent species destroy themselves alternatives. At least with this there is the possibility for our long range probes to make contact and exchange culture/technology.

caf 9y ago

Imagine there was one, or even a dozen such probes in our solar system right now. Would we notice?

pklausler 9y ago
Briefly, until the Earth was gobbled up for material to make new self-replicating interstellar probes. Evolution would ensure that the probes would be voraciously reproducing as quickly as physically possible.
- caf 9y ago
  The numerical argument that the age of the galaxy gives sufficient time that it should be well-covered with probes seems reasonable. However, extending that argument to "...and the various probes will have then competed in a Darwinian struggle leaving only a few voracious survivors causing a galactic-scale grey-goo scenario." does not seem especially well supported.