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Regardless of how bad Samsung's alternative would have been (probably Tizen, but possibly Windows Phone), it would still look incredibly bad for Android and Goo

Regardless of how bad Samsung's alternative would have been (probably Tizen, but possibly Windows Phone), it would still look incredibly bad for Android and Google for the news of the top Android OEM getting out of the Android space.

e40 9y ago
There is no way on earth Samsung would have dropped android. Google lost this game of chicken, that's for sure.
- Synaesthesia 9y ago
  The alleged game of chicken, and we don’t know what else happened.
- ocdtrekkie 9y ago
  The entire Tizen project as well as continued efforts in Google competitors like Bixby is Samsung hedging their bets to leave. Samsung is probably the only Android OEM who could leave without going out of business: People would buy the next Galaxy no matter what it ran, and Samsung has the clout to push all the major app developers to push to their own store.
  - ksenzee 9y ago
    Some people would buy the next Galaxy. Plenty of people wouldn't, though, as soon as the helpful employee at the T-Mobile store warned them they couldn't reinstall their old apps on the new phone. It would be a really risky move. I imagine they'd have done it already if it weren't so likely to fail.
    - ocdtrekkie 9y ago
      Bear in mind, Tizen supports Android apps. Samsung would have a lot of work to do here, but would have the pull to get the top X apps on their market, even if it took paying devs to list them. Then just add a migration tool like Google has on their Pixel devices that plugs into their old phone and downloads all of the same apps on their new phone (and probably would report back to Samsung which apps they were unable to do so with so they know who to encourage), and voila. I'm sure there'd be some loss, but Samsung would likely come out doing fine. Even if they lost some market share, their profits would likely go up in the end, since they'd be the ones pulling the app market cuts and such.
      - tacomonstrous 9y ago
        >Then just add a migration tool like Google has on their Pixel devices that plugs into their old phone and downloads all of the same apps on their new phone And be pleasantly surprised when none of their Google apps transfer over? Good luck with that.
        kuschku 9y ago
        Google Apps are important in some markets, but far less so in other markets. Samsung might lose a percentage of the SV customerbase, but everyone who’s not relying on Google accounts wouldn’t really notice.
        ocdtrekkie 9y ago
        Multiple jurisdictions are investigating the antitrust implications of how Google Apps are controlled on Android. We'll see if this is still a problem in a couple years.
      - davidy123 9y ago
        Samsung already tried to have their own app market. It was terrible and failed. Other companies like RIM tried paying developers to port to their platform. It didn't make any difference.
  - yeukhon 9y ago
    Nope. Samsung would not have survived. First their stock price will drop as soon as they announced the departure from Android. The market would not have any confidence in any alternative, because history has taught us well. Second, as others have already pointed out, it is either Android or iOS. Try spin up a new mobile OS today and I guarantee you it would be hard to recreate the existing ecosystem. Samsung has the money, but good luck getting enough apps. You'd have to build a whole new interpolation layer so no one has to rewrite, ot rewrite as little as possible. That will take at least a year. Testing stability, reimplement every feature in modern mobile is going to be a multi-year project. By then, someone else would have taken Samsung's place. XiaoMi would is Samsung's contenter right now.
  - MikusR 9y ago
    It would not have access to Google services and would end like Windows phone.
  - cakedoggie 9y ago
    It is not just hedging their bets. One company can't rely on another company. You see it with Apple Maps, Siri, etc...
- hooluupig 9y ago
  FYI,Samsung's tvs and watches are running Tizen instead of Android.
  - KozmoNau7 9y ago
    And they're horribly buggy messes. Samsung knows this, but is too stubborn to admit it.
kchoudhu 9y ago
Man, how different would the world be if Samsung had become a Windows Phone OEM?
- nu5500 9y ago
  Hard to tell, but I don't think it would have worked out since Google did not support their services on Windows Phone and, at the time, there were not good alternatives. (Although, personally I actually preferred alternate services such as Here Maps)
- mianos 9y ago
  You might have said this about Nokia.
dv_dt 9y ago
Maybe the thing that's changed is Google's assessment of the viability of Tizen or windows phone, or other alternative phone platforms. At this point Google might very well say to Samsung, go ahead and drop Android if you feel the need.
- problems 9y ago
  Yeah, at this point in the game if it's not Android or iOS it's dead in the water. Spinning up another platform is likely difficulty to impossible - we've seen so many try and fail, Blackberry, Windows Phone, Tizen, Jolla, Ubuntu. It's a chicken and egg problem, to get more users you need existing users making apps and bragging about their device.
  - duncan_bayne 9y ago
    It's hopefully not impossible - look at history for numerous cases of dominant OSs being displaced by newcomers. What are the odds that we have arrived at the point in history where that never happens again? Difficult? Yes. Very, very difficult.
    - reaperducer 9y ago
      Nothing time and money can't solve. And if there's one thing Google has, it's money. The problem is that Google has the attention span of a hamster on crack. Instead of giving a new handset platform time to grow and mature, it'll jettison the whole project before it gets a chance to gain traction.
      - cisanti 9y ago
        Because they implement the software manifesto build fast, ship often, fail quick to hardware. That's my opinion.
      - gordon_freeman 9y ago
        Same is true for most of Google's messaging apps: Gtalk, Buzz, Wave, Hangouts, Allo, Duo. Too many.
Steko 9y ago
They would have just forked android.
- JohnTHaller 9y ago
  Which would have been like Amazon's fork but crappier. And with a worse app store than Amazon.
  - ethbro 9y ago
    This. I don't think anything Samsung has put out, with due deference to Samsung developers' work, has convinced me that Samsung management is capable of stewarding an Android fork sustainably with Google-equivalent resources. Much less with the fewer resources they'd have to spend on it.
    - Steko 9y ago
      My point wasn't that Samsung-Android would be Google equivalent but that AOSP was far ahead of Tizen and Windows Phone.
bitmapbrother 9y ago
Samsung makes about 3-4 Billion profit in their smartphone division per quarter. I'd say it would have looked a lot worse for Samsung and their share price.

e40 9y ago

There is no way on earth Samsung would have dropped android. Google lost this game of chicken, that's for sure.

Synaesthesia 9y ago
The alleged game of chicken, and we don’t know what else happened.
ocdtrekkie 9y ago
The entire Tizen project as well as continued efforts in Google competitors like Bixby is Samsung hedging their bets to leave. Samsung is probably the only Android OEM who could leave without going out of business: People would buy the next Galaxy no matter what it ran, and Samsung has the clout to push all the major app developers to push to their own store.
- ksenzee 9y ago
  Some people would buy the next Galaxy. Plenty of people wouldn't, though, as soon as the helpful employee at the T-Mobile store warned them they couldn't reinstall their old apps on the new phone. It would be a really risky move. I imagine they'd have done it already if it weren't so likely to fail.
  - ocdtrekkie 9y ago
    Bear in mind, Tizen supports Android apps. Samsung would have a lot of work to do here, but would have the pull to get the top X apps on their market, even if it took paying devs to list them. Then just add a migration tool like Google has on their Pixel devices that plugs into their old phone and downloads all of the same apps on their new phone (and probably would report back to Samsung which apps they were unable to do so with so they know who to encourage), and voila. I'm sure there'd be some loss, but Samsung would likely come out doing fine. Even if they lost some market share, their profits would likely go up in the end, since they'd be the ones pulling the app market cuts and such.
    - tacomonstrous 9y ago
      >Then just add a migration tool like Google has on their Pixel devices that plugs into their old phone and downloads all of the same apps on their new phone And be pleasantly surprised when none of their Google apps transfer over? Good luck with that.
      - kuschku 9y ago
        Google Apps are important in some markets, but far less so in other markets. Samsung might lose a percentage of the SV customerbase, but everyone who’s not relying on Google accounts wouldn’t really notice.
      - ocdtrekkie 9y ago
        Multiple jurisdictions are investigating the antitrust implications of how Google Apps are controlled on Android. We'll see if this is still a problem in a couple years.
    - davidy123 9y ago
      Samsung already tried to have their own app market. It was terrible and failed. Other companies like RIM tried paying developers to port to their platform. It didn't make any difference.
- yeukhon 9y ago
  Nope. Samsung would not have survived. First their stock price will drop as soon as they announced the departure from Android. The market would not have any confidence in any alternative, because history has taught us well. Second, as others have already pointed out, it is either Android or iOS. Try spin up a new mobile OS today and I guarantee you it would be hard to recreate the existing ecosystem. Samsung has the money, but good luck getting enough apps. You'd have to build a whole new interpolation layer so no one has to rewrite, ot rewrite as little as possible. That will take at least a year. Testing stability, reimplement every feature in modern mobile is going to be a multi-year project. By then, someone else would have taken Samsung's place. XiaoMi would is Samsung's contenter right now.
- MikusR 9y ago
  It would not have access to Google services and would end like Windows phone.
- cakedoggie 9y ago
  It is not just hedging their bets. One company can't rely on another company. You see it with Apple Maps, Siri, etc...
hooluupig 9y ago
FYI,Samsung's tvs and watches are running Tizen instead of Android.
- KozmoNau7 9y ago
  And they're horribly buggy messes. Samsung knows this, but is too stubborn to admit it.

kchoudhu 9y ago

Man, how different would the world be if Samsung had become a Windows Phone OEM?

nu5500 9y ago
Hard to tell, but I don't think it would have worked out since Google did not support their services on Windows Phone and, at the time, there were not good alternatives. (Although, personally I actually preferred alternate services such as Here Maps)
mianos 9y ago
You might have said this about Nokia.

dv_dt 9y ago

Maybe the thing that's changed is Google's assessment of the viability of Tizen or windows phone, or other alternative phone platforms. At this point Google might very well say to Samsung, go ahead and drop Android if you feel the need.

problems 9y ago
Yeah, at this point in the game if it's not Android or iOS it's dead in the water. Spinning up another platform is likely difficulty to impossible - we've seen so many try and fail, Blackberry, Windows Phone, Tizen, Jolla, Ubuntu. It's a chicken and egg problem, to get more users you need existing users making apps and bragging about their device.
- duncan_bayne 9y ago
  It's hopefully not impossible - look at history for numerous cases of dominant OSs being displaced by newcomers. What are the odds that we have arrived at the point in history where that never happens again? Difficult? Yes. Very, very difficult.
  - reaperducer 9y ago
    Nothing time and money can't solve. And if there's one thing Google has, it's money. The problem is that Google has the attention span of a hamster on crack. Instead of giving a new handset platform time to grow and mature, it'll jettison the whole project before it gets a chance to gain traction.
    - cisanti 9y ago
      Because they implement the software manifesto build fast, ship often, fail quick to hardware. That's my opinion.
    - gordon_freeman 9y ago
      Same is true for most of Google's messaging apps: Gtalk, Buzz, Wave, Hangouts, Allo, Duo. Too many.

Steko 9y ago

They would have just forked android.

JohnTHaller 9y ago
Which would have been like Amazon's fork but crappier. And with a worse app store than Amazon.
- ethbro 9y ago
  This. I don't think anything Samsung has put out, with due deference to Samsung developers' work, has convinced me that Samsung management is capable of stewarding an Android fork sustainably with Google-equivalent resources. Much less with the fewer resources they'd have to spend on it.
  - Steko 9y ago
    My point wasn't that Samsung-Android would be Google equivalent but that AOSP was far ahead of Tizen and Windows Phone.

bitmapbrother 9y ago

Samsung makes about 3-4 Billion profit in their smartphone division per quarter. I'd say it would have looked a lot worse for Samsung and their share price.