The country that looks most likely to split (in Europe) to me is Belgium, not Spain. But then predicting geopolitical changes is the same as predicting Black S

The country that looks most likely to split (in Europe) to me is Belgium, not Spain. But then predicting geopolitical changes is the same as predicting Black Swans: the Berlin wall will stand forever right until the moment it wont; The Soviet Union is just there until it is no more; nothing can stand the Nazi war machine; those scrappy colonists have no chance against the English empire.