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When I was dating a Croatian girl, I asked her which country reminded her most of pre-war Yugoslavia. "Spain," she said, without skipping a beat. "It's eerily

When I was dating a Croatian girl, I asked her which country reminded her most of pre-war Yugoslavia. "Spain," she said, without skipping a beat. "It's eerily similar. All power and wealth flowing to the capital in the center of the country? Check. Generations-long repression of regional, cultural, and linguistic diversity? Check. Awkward tendency to rewrite history to avoid open discussion of WWII-era atrocities? Check. A staunch refusal by the central government to engage in meaningful dialogue with aggrieved regions and peoples? Check. Brutal repression of freedom of speech or demonstrations, inspiring ever-more-radical nationalism... All the ingredients are there." "Nah," I said. "Spain's a stable republic! There's no way it'll descend into a Yugoslavia-style death fest." She just arched her eyebrow. "War was unthinkable to us right up until the moment the JNA started shelling us. It's a miracle Spain's still one country, honestly." The more I learn -- about both Yugoslavia and Spain -- the more I fear she was right.

tomjen3 9y ago
The country that looks most likely to split (in Europe) to me is Belgium, not Spain. But then predicting geopolitical changes is the same as predicting Black Swans: the Berlin wall will stand forever right until the moment it wont; The Soviet Union is just there until it is no more; nothing can stand the Nazi war machine; those scrappy colonists have no chance against the English empire.
- oh_sigh 9y ago
  Really? My take is that Flemings and Walloons don't really understand each other but are happy staying in their own half of the country. Who would get Brussels in a split?
  - lowry 9y ago
    Brusselards
dazc 9y ago
Yugoslavia and Spain are two different scenarios entirely.
umanwizard 9y ago
Nit... Spain's not a republic
dawkins 9y ago
"Brutal repression of freedom of speech or demonstrations" "Spain's a stable republic" It's saddens me to see so much ignorance and nonsense. Keeping aside that Spain is a monarchy, in today's Catalonia people have to fight for basic things like the right to educate their children in Spanish, mayors who do not support the referendum are being harrased by the radicals... that is a little example of the "oppresion" you talk about. They have pushed the government to the limit and they have to do something.
- monodeldiablo 9y ago
  And why do you think that such radicalism has taken hold in Catalonia? Has it ever been thus, or could it possibly be in reaction to something...? And do you think that the Spanish government's actions will encourage unity or fan the flames of separatism? I think Catalan independence is a stupid idea, but you'd have to be pretty blinkered not to see the historical, ongoing heavy-handedness of the Spanish government in response to its regions. Countries responsive to their citizenry don't, as a general rule, have two or more internal states in which >30% of the population wants to secede.
  - logronoide 9y ago
    That "radicalism" has nothing to do with centralism. It has to do with radical nationalism of peripherical regional parties. They control the media, the education, the funding of heavily subsized companies with public money for more than 35 years. Spain is a very decentralized country, closer to a federal model. Right regional parties in Catalonia cannot keep on stealing from the public budget since the Great Recession. Their business model is over. They have to pivot to a new business model called "independence".
    - Oletros 9y ago
      > They control the media, the education, the funding of heavily subsized companies with public money for more than 35 years Like in the rest of Spain?
    - monodeldiablo 9y ago
logronoide 9y ago
Yugoslavia and Spain has nothing to do. For a start, we are a Monarchy . Maybe you should start with the basics about European history. Yugoslavia had a terrible civil war and they broke in pieces. There was no reason to keep on together. Spain had a more terrible civil war and Spain still exists as it was before. The history of Catalonia says that they have never really fought for independence. They are always looking for economical benefits. Except anarchist which I think they really want to shock the system, the new-born "Indepes" will never stand up in arms to fight for the independence of Catalonia.
- monodeldiablo 9y ago
  > Maybe you should start with the basics about European history. Don't condescend to me. I live in what was Yugoslavia. And that terrible civil war? I spend my days surrounded by its victims. None of them saw it coming. Nobody did until it was too late. > Spain had a more terrible civil war and Spain still exists as it was before. "More terrible"? By what measure? Half as many Spaniards died during the Spanish Civil War as were killed in the Yugoslav theatre during the same period. By the 1970s, the result was the same in both cases: A powerful federal state, ruled by a dictator, comprised of areas with strong regional identities. And in the most recent Yugoslav Wars? Sure, fewer people died than in Spain, but only because over four million fled. That's almost ten times as many displaced people as in the Spanish Civil War. Don't pretend that Spain has a monopoly on suffering or is somehow special. > The history of Catalonia says that they have never really fought for independence. Historians (and Serbs) said the same thing about Croatians and Slovenes right up until they walked out of the constitutional congress. I could go on... Listen, one of us is definitely ignorant of history, but it ain't me. I strongly suggest you read up on the events preceding the Yugoslav Wars: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_Wars#Background https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_Wars#Background I think you'll find the parallels disconcerting.
  - fabianmg 9y ago
    If you have such a huge knowledge how come you haven't mentioned a particular HUGE difference between Spain and Yugoslavia. In Yugoslavia one of the main reasons of the war and secession was RELIGION, in Spain there's no such clash between muslims and catholics.

tomjen3 9y ago

The country that looks most likely to split (in Europe) to me is Belgium, not Spain. But then predicting geopolitical changes is the same as predicting Black Swans: the Berlin wall will stand forever right until the moment it wont; The Soviet Union is just there until it is no more; nothing can stand the Nazi war machine; those scrappy colonists have no chance against the English empire.

oh_sigh 9y ago
Really? My take is that Flemings and Walloons don't really understand each other but are happy staying in their own half of the country. Who would get Brussels in a split?
- lowry 9y ago
  Brusselards

dazc 9y ago

Yugoslavia and Spain are two different scenarios entirely.

umanwizard 9y ago

Nit... Spain's not a republic

dawkins 9y ago

"Brutal repression of freedom of speech or demonstrations" "Spain's a stable republic" It's saddens me to see so much ignorance and nonsense. Keeping aside that Spain is a monarchy, in today's Catalonia people have to fight for basic things like the right to educate their children in Spanish, mayors who do not support the referendum are being harrased by the radicals... that is a little example of the "oppresion" you talk about. They have pushed the government to the limit and they have to do something.

monodeldiablo 9y ago
And why do you think that such radicalism has taken hold in Catalonia? Has it ever been thus, or could it possibly be in reaction to something...? And do you think that the Spanish government's actions will encourage unity or fan the flames of separatism? I think Catalan independence is a stupid idea, but you'd have to be pretty blinkered not to see the historical, ongoing heavy-handedness of the Spanish government in response to its regions. Countries responsive to their citizenry don't, as a general rule, have two or more internal states in which >30% of the population wants to secede.
- logronoide 9y ago
  That "radicalism" has nothing to do with centralism. It has to do with radical nationalism of peripherical regional parties. They control the media, the education, the funding of heavily subsized companies with public money for more than 35 years. Spain is a very decentralized country, closer to a federal model. Right regional parties in Catalonia cannot keep on stealing from the public budget since the Great Recession. Their business model is over. They have to pivot to a new business model called "independence".
  - Oletros 9y ago
    > They control the media, the education, the funding of heavily subsized companies with public money for more than 35 years Like in the rest of Spain?
  - monodeldiablo 9y ago

logronoide 9y ago

Yugoslavia and Spain has nothing to do. For a start, we are a Monarchy . Maybe you should start with the basics about European history. Yugoslavia had a terrible civil war and they broke in pieces. There was no reason to keep on together. Spain had a more terrible civil war and Spain still exists as it was before. The history of Catalonia says that they have never really fought for independence. They are always looking for economical benefits. Except anarchist which I think they really want to shock the system, the new-born "Indepes" will never stand up in arms to fight for the independence of Catalonia.

monodeldiablo 9y ago
> Maybe you should start with the basics about European history. Don't condescend to me. I live in what was Yugoslavia. And that terrible civil war? I spend my days surrounded by its victims. None of them saw it coming. Nobody did until it was too late. > Spain had a more terrible civil war and Spain still exists as it was before. "More terrible"? By what measure? Half as many Spaniards died during the Spanish Civil War as were killed in the Yugoslav theatre during the same period. By the 1970s, the result was the same in both cases: A powerful federal state, ruled by a dictator, comprised of areas with strong regional identities. And in the most recent Yugoslav Wars? Sure, fewer people died than in Spain, but only because over four million fled. That's almost ten times as many displaced people as in the Spanish Civil War. Don't pretend that Spain has a monopoly on suffering or is somehow special. > The history of Catalonia says that they have never really fought for independence. Historians (and Serbs) said the same thing about Croatians and Slovenes right up until they walked out of the constitutional congress. I could go on... Listen, one of us is definitely ignorant of history, but it ain't me. I strongly suggest you read up on the events preceding the Yugoslav Wars: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_Wars#Background https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_Wars#Background I think you'll find the parallels disconcerting.
- fabianmg 9y ago
  If you have such a huge knowledge how come you haven't mentioned a particular HUGE difference between Spain and Yugoslavia. In Yugoslavia one of the main reasons of the war and secession was RELIGION, in Spain there's no such clash between muslims and catholics.