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I know it’s hard to not take parts with the “oppressed” but: You must know that this referendum was approved without reading the bill in the Catalonian parliam

I know it’s hard to not take parts with the “oppressed” but: You must know that this referendum was approved without reading the bill in the Catalonian parliament, so the opposition couldn’t even have a say. Even the vicepresident of the chamber stepped out of line since it was so outrageously un-democratic. The people leading this movement in Catalonia (very much like the central government) is riddled with corruption. Public workers have been pressured to accept participation in the referendum (which is ilegal to do). And just to finish: if you’re going to reference any prior “referendum” know that it’s not only ilegal like this one (thus no observers, nor accurate census) but also take into account participation (usually very low). In short: please be skeptical about whatever you hear from either side. There’s an estimated 40-45% of support for the vote and less than that (30-40%) support for independence.

tomjen3 9y ago
We should of course be sceptical, but at the same time it seems that Spain is active so heavy handed in this and related matters that they are almost trying to make this go violent.
- gfiorav 9y ago
  This is the thing: the referendum is ilegal according to constitution (agreed on by Catalans in the 70s). We can debate if it should or should not be ilegal, but it’s a different thing. These actions are taken to avoid violating the constitutional order, not the vote directly. If the constitution is being infringed, you can’t make exceptions.
  - nsnick 9y ago
    We can also debate whether the response of the Spanish government is out of line. Nothing will bring about Catalan independence faster than heavy handed repression by the Spanish government.
    - gfiorav 9y ago
      My point is: How would you react if a regional government (which represent 30-40% of the people there) in your country stops obeying the constitution? Would you not stop the privacy infringement that is using census data ilegally? Would you not protect the 60-70% who didn’t vote the ruling party?
      - nsnick 9y ago
        If by "stops obeying the constitution" you mean "holds a referendum" I would be fine with it. What I am not ok with is a central government rounding people up because they want to hold an election.
        gfiorav 9y ago
        Sure but now you’re deciding what parts of the constitution you obey and which ones you don’t. That just doesn’t scale. If you want to modify the constitution you need 2/3 of the senate. There’s a procedure for that. There no excuse to break the constitution. If you think there is, you had no argument to defend your own constitutional rights.
        nsnick 9y ago
        I think it is fine to not follow any part of any constitution that prevents democracy.
        kiliancs 9y ago
        The Spanish constitution recognizes the right to self-determination inasmuch as it explicitly enshrines the international treaties that define it. Spain (executive and judiciary) is choosing to ignore that (unlike Canada, for example), and not letting Catalonia exercise that right in any way. According to polls 70%/80% of Catalans think a referendum about independence should take place. The current Catalan government has the mandate from last elections to find a way for the Catalans to exercise this right even if Spain opposes, given that Spain has also refused all previous proposals to find a solution. Catalans literally have no other option. They either waive their right to self-determination or they exercise it. Some relevant sources: Referendum Law: http://dogc.gencat.cat/ca/pdogc_canals_interns/pdogc_resultats_fitxa/?action=fitxa&documentId=796531&language=ca_ES http://dogc.gencat.cat/ca/pdogc_canals_interns/pdogc_resulta... The Legitimacy of Catalonia's Exercise of its Right to Decide (a Report by a Commission of International Experts): https://www.unige.ch/gsi/files/9115/0461/7417/EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY_Catalogne.pdf https://www.unige.ch/gsi/files/9115/0461/7417/EXECUTIVE_SUMM...
- notspanishflu 9y ago
  The only party interested in violence is the CUP (see the history of those secessionists).
dazc 9y ago
> "In short: please be skeptical about whatever you hear from either side. There’s an estimated 40-45% of support for the vote and less than that (30-40%) support for independence." So why not just let the vote go ahead and get it over with?
- bonzini 9y ago
  Because of the precedent, presumably. If it is not allowed by the Spanish Constitution, what will be the next part of the Constitution that will be ignored?
  - gfiorav 9y ago
    Yup, pretty much. There IS a procedure for modifying the constitution, and it requieres 2/3 of the senate to agree.
  - RobertoG 9y ago
    So, following that view, in the hypothetical case that the 100% of the people of one region wanted the independence, they should just be quiet because it's in the constitution of the 'federal' government? Just trying to follow your reasoning.
    - bonzini 9y ago
      In that case the federal government should consider amending the Constitution, or something like that. Which isn't necessarily that simple. For example, the wide majority that is needed for constitutional changes would require agreement at the federal level even beyond parties that are part of the government. Also, some constitutions have provisions that are explicitly listed as un-amendable. In the case of Catalunya there are other issues. For example, admission to the EU of Catalunya would probably be vetoed by Spain and by almost any other country that has regions with strong separatist movements (e.g. Spain would have vetoed the admission of Scotland, had the Scottish referendum passed). This would be a big unknown for Catalan economy.
  - lllllll 9y ago
balance_factor 9y ago
> the "oppressed" Sure, how are they oppressed? In 1938 Barcelona was bombed because the army wanted to destroy the republic and what existed of Catalonia autonomy. So any existing Catalonia autonomy or democracy of any form was crushed in 1939, replaced by a military dictatorship, and only started to recover in 1977-1978. The Spanish dictatorship killed thousands of Catalans after the 1939 takeover. The same forces in Spanish society who did that are the same forces which seek to destroy Catalan autonomy again. By the same means, policemen kicking down the door. You dismiss prior referendums, fine. There is going to be one in 11 days. So if those polls you cite are true, then it seems independence will not happen. It's bizarre to call a referendum in ten days "outrageously undemocratic", while decades of a brutal dictatorship established by an invasion and the murder of thousands afterward goes without mention.
- gfiorav 9y ago
  What forces are you talking about? The fascist killed Spaniards from all Spain, not only Catalonia. In any case, the republic was outspokenly against the Catalan independence. Azaña was quoted to write in a letter “before alllwing for an independent Catalonia, I’ll give it to Franco”. Please don’t revise history, is the most fascist thing you can do. The problem with the referendum results is that they can’t be accurate. They’re asking people to bring the ballots printed at home, and there’s no accurate census. No observers either. Not that the Catalonian government cares, of course.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - icebraining 9y ago
    Azaña said many things: "Si en algún momento dominara en Cataluña otra voluntad y resolviera remar sola en su navío, sería justo permitirlo y nuestro deber consistiría en dejaros en paz, y si esto sucediera os desearíamos buena suerte hasta que cicatrizara la herida"
    - notspanishflu 9y ago
severino 9y ago
> The people leading this movement in Catalonia is riddled with corruption Every single party in Spain is riddled with corruption. But it doesn't mean they can't defend some ideology anymore. Besides, this is not some crazy politician's idea, but a movement from people ranging from the far left to the Christian democracy. Some parties changed their positions to "ride the wave", though. > There’s an estimated 40-45% of support for the vote and less than that (30-40%) support for independence. And how you know that? Polls? Polls means nothing. They can say whatever their planners want them to say.
- collyw 9y ago
  >Every single party in Spain is riddled with corruption. The smaller the government the less corruption would be my assumption. Iceland seems to do a pretty good job of listening to its people. > Polls means nothing. They can say whatever their planners want them to say. Regarding polls, I have a theory that you should always lie if asked in one. The less validity that polls have, the less they can be used to manipulate the vote. If no one believes what the polls say, there will have less influence and there be less chance of tactical voting, which is a real problem with our current version of democracy. Maybe some people think that tactical voting is a good thing, but in my lifetime it always seems to be the case that people are voting for the lesser of two evils, rather than what they actually believe in. Is that really what democracy is supposed to be about?
wott 9y ago
> There’s an estimated 40-45% of support for the vote and less than that (30-40%) support for independence. Madrid would not react as brutally as they do if their intelligence services foresee such a result; they would just protest and deny vote legitimacy as they usually did the previous times, and let the vote be.
- notspanishflu 9y ago
  Applying the Law is "react brutally". Are you really serious?
oriol16 9y ago
"You must know that this referendum was approved without reading the bill in the Catalonian parliament, so the opposition couldn’t even have a say." It's understandable given the filibusterism, and outright prohibitions you would expect from the central government. Referendum has been proposed for 7 years and it was rejected every time. Catalonia has less corruption than Spain in average. Even though the National Police and the judiciary have a very strong bias in favor of spanish parties.
- notspanishflu 9y ago
  There's a legal way to change the Spanish Constitution. Use it. On the other hand, you can't be serious saying that in the region of Catalonia there's less corruption than in the whole Spain.
  - oriol16 9y ago
    http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2013/04/26/andalucia/1366975697.html http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2013/04/26/andalucia/136697569... find the ratios and then the ratios of population. Thank you.
    - notspanishflu 9y ago
      Number of cases don't say anything. It's better to look at the amount of money. You can have 500 politicians stealing 1 million euros each, and 5 politicians stealing 1 billion each.
      - Oletros 9y ago
        So, if for 2 comunities of 1 million people with 300 politicians each, if in one comunity 1 politician steals 1.000 millions is more corrupt than one where 300 politicians steal 3 millions each? Curious way of counting corruption And, by the way, I think Catalonia is exactly as corrupt as the rest of the Spain, it is not a problem of the comunity, is a problem of the whole society which rewards that any people steal taxes or don't pay VAT CiU, PP and PSOE are equal regarding corruption.
Oletros 9y ago
> In short: please be skeptical about whatever you hear from either side. There’s an estimated 40-45% of support for the vote and less than that (30-40%) support for independence Do you have sources, because the last I know is from El Periodico (against independence) and the amount of people supporting a referendum was almost 80%
- gfiorav 9y ago
  I follow the numbers closely... it’s always coming from CIS. It seems to have risin after the attacks. http://www.elmundo.es/cataluna/2017/07/21/5971c7f7468aebd53d8b45cf.html http://www.elmundo.es/cataluna/2017/07/21/5971c7f7468aebd53d...
  - Oletros 9y ago
    That link doesn't talk about support to a vote, just for independence
    - gfiorav 9y ago
      Support for the vote is at least the same for independence. It’s more, some people against independence are in favor of the vote
      - Oletros 9y ago
        Last poll from El Peridico, 78.9%
      - Oletros 9y ago
        Form the El Pais of today https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/09/23/catalunya/1506191226_220170.html https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/09/23/catalunya/1506191226_2201... > Hasta un 82% de catalanes se muestran partidarios de solucionar el problema catalán con un referéndum pactado y plenamente legal sobre la independencia. La idea seduce a la inmensa mayoría de los partidos independentistas pero también recoge numerosos apoyos entre las fuerzas constitucionalistas.

tomjen3 9y ago

We should of course be sceptical, but at the same time it seems that Spain is active so heavy handed in this and related matters that they are almost trying to make this go violent.

gfiorav 9y ago
This is the thing: the referendum is ilegal according to constitution (agreed on by Catalans in the 70s). We can debate if it should or should not be ilegal, but it’s a different thing. These actions are taken to avoid violating the constitutional order, not the vote directly. If the constitution is being infringed, you can’t make exceptions.
- nsnick 9y ago
  We can also debate whether the response of the Spanish government is out of line. Nothing will bring about Catalan independence faster than heavy handed repression by the Spanish government.
  - gfiorav 9y ago
    My point is: How would you react if a regional government (which represent 30-40% of the people there) in your country stops obeying the constitution? Would you not stop the privacy infringement that is using census data ilegally? Would you not protect the 60-70% who didn’t vote the ruling party?
    - nsnick 9y ago
      If by "stops obeying the constitution" you mean "holds a referendum" I would be fine with it. What I am not ok with is a central government rounding people up because they want to hold an election.
      - gfiorav 9y ago
        Sure but now you’re deciding what parts of the constitution you obey and which ones you don’t. That just doesn’t scale. If you want to modify the constitution you need 2/3 of the senate. There’s a procedure for that. There no excuse to break the constitution. If you think there is, you had no argument to defend your own constitutional rights.
        nsnick 9y ago
        I think it is fine to not follow any part of any constitution that prevents democracy.
        kiliancs 9y ago
        The Spanish constitution recognizes the right to self-determination inasmuch as it explicitly enshrines the international treaties that define it. Spain (executive and judiciary) is choosing to ignore that (unlike Canada, for example), and not letting Catalonia exercise that right in any way. According to polls 70%/80% of Catalans think a referendum about independence should take place. The current Catalan government has the mandate from last elections to find a way for the Catalans to exercise this right even if Spain opposes, given that Spain has also refused all previous proposals to find a solution. Catalans literally have no other option. They either waive their right to self-determination or they exercise it. Some relevant sources: Referendum Law: http://dogc.gencat.cat/ca/pdogc_canals_interns/pdogc_resultats_fitxa/?action=fitxa&documentId=796531&language=ca_ES http://dogc.gencat.cat/ca/pdogc_canals_interns/pdogc_resulta... The Legitimacy of Catalonia's Exercise of its Right to Decide (a Report by a Commission of International Experts): https://www.unige.ch/gsi/files/9115/0461/7417/EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY_Catalogne.pdf https://www.unige.ch/gsi/files/9115/0461/7417/EXECUTIVE_SUMM...
notspanishflu 9y ago
The only party interested in violence is the CUP (see the history of those secessionists).

dazc 9y ago

> "In short: please be skeptical about whatever you hear from either side. There’s an estimated 40-45% of support for the vote and less than that (30-40%) support for independence." So why not just let the vote go ahead and get it over with?

bonzini 9y ago
Because of the precedent, presumably. If it is not allowed by the Spanish Constitution, what will be the next part of the Constitution that will be ignored?
- gfiorav 9y ago
  Yup, pretty much. There IS a procedure for modifying the constitution, and it requieres 2/3 of the senate to agree.
- RobertoG 9y ago
  So, following that view, in the hypothetical case that the 100% of the people of one region wanted the independence, they should just be quiet because it's in the constitution of the 'federal' government? Just trying to follow your reasoning.
  - bonzini 9y ago
    In that case the federal government should consider amending the Constitution, or something like that. Which isn't necessarily that simple. For example, the wide majority that is needed for constitutional changes would require agreement at the federal level even beyond parties that are part of the government. Also, some constitutions have provisions that are explicitly listed as un-amendable. In the case of Catalunya there are other issues. For example, admission to the EU of Catalunya would probably be vetoed by Spain and by almost any other country that has regions with strong separatist movements (e.g. Spain would have vetoed the admission of Scotland, had the Scottish referendum passed). This would be a big unknown for Catalan economy.
- lllllll 9y ago

balance_factor 9y ago

> the "oppressed" Sure, how are they oppressed? In 1938 Barcelona was bombed because the army wanted to destroy the republic and what existed of Catalonia autonomy. So any existing Catalonia autonomy or democracy of any form was crushed in 1939, replaced by a military dictatorship, and only started to recover in 1977-1978. The Spanish dictatorship killed thousands of Catalans after the 1939 takeover. The same forces in Spanish society who did that are the same forces which seek to destroy Catalan autonomy again. By the same means, policemen kicking down the door. You dismiss prior referendums, fine. There is going to be one in 11 days. So if those polls you cite are true, then it seems independence will not happen. It's bizarre to call a referendum in ten days "outrageously undemocratic", while decades of a brutal dictatorship established by an invasion and the murder of thousands afterward goes without mention.

gfiorav 9y ago
What forces are you talking about? The fascist killed Spaniards from all Spain, not only Catalonia. In any case, the republic was outspokenly against the Catalan independence. Azaña was quoted to write in a letter “before alllwing for an independent Catalonia, I’ll give it to Franco”. Please don’t revise history, is the most fascist thing you can do. The problem with the referendum results is that they can’t be accurate. They’re asking people to bring the ballots printed at home, and there’s no accurate census. No observers either. Not that the Catalonian government cares, of course.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- icebraining 9y ago
  Azaña said many things: "Si en algún momento dominara en Cataluña otra voluntad y resolviera remar sola en su navío, sería justo permitirlo y nuestro deber consistiría en dejaros en paz, y si esto sucediera os desearíamos buena suerte hasta que cicatrizara la herida"
  - notspanishflu 9y ago

severino 9y ago

> The people leading this movement in Catalonia is riddled with corruption Every single party in Spain is riddled with corruption. But it doesn't mean they can't defend some ideology anymore. Besides, this is not some crazy politician's idea, but a movement from people ranging from the far left to the Christian democracy. Some parties changed their positions to "ride the wave", though. > There’s an estimated 40-45% of support for the vote and less than that (30-40%) support for independence. And how you know that? Polls? Polls means nothing. They can say whatever their planners want them to say.

collyw 9y ago
>Every single party in Spain is riddled with corruption. The smaller the government the less corruption would be my assumption. Iceland seems to do a pretty good job of listening to its people. > Polls means nothing. They can say whatever their planners want them to say. Regarding polls, I have a theory that you should always lie if asked in one. The less validity that polls have, the less they can be used to manipulate the vote. If no one believes what the polls say, there will have less influence and there be less chance of tactical voting, which is a real problem with our current version of democracy. Maybe some people think that tactical voting is a good thing, but in my lifetime it always seems to be the case that people are voting for the lesser of two evils, rather than what they actually believe in. Is that really what democracy is supposed to be about?

wott 9y ago

> There’s an estimated 40-45% of support for the vote and less than that (30-40%) support for independence. Madrid would not react as brutally as they do if their intelligence services foresee such a result; they would just protest and deny vote legitimacy as they usually did the previous times, and let the vote be.

notspanishflu 9y ago
Applying the Law is "react brutally". Are you really serious?

oriol16 9y ago

"You must know that this referendum was approved without reading the bill in the Catalonian parliament, so the opposition couldn’t even have a say." It's understandable given the filibusterism, and outright prohibitions you would expect from the central government. Referendum has been proposed for 7 years and it was rejected every time. Catalonia has less corruption than Spain in average. Even though the National Police and the judiciary have a very strong bias in favor of spanish parties.

notspanishflu 9y ago
There's a legal way to change the Spanish Constitution. Use it. On the other hand, you can't be serious saying that in the region of Catalonia there's less corruption than in the whole Spain.
- oriol16 9y ago
  http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2013/04/26/andalucia/1366975697.html http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2013/04/26/andalucia/136697569... find the ratios and then the ratios of population. Thank you.
  - notspanishflu 9y ago
    Number of cases don't say anything. It's better to look at the amount of money. You can have 500 politicians stealing 1 million euros each, and 5 politicians stealing 1 billion each.
    - Oletros 9y ago
      So, if for 2 comunities of 1 million people with 300 politicians each, if in one comunity 1 politician steals 1.000 millions is more corrupt than one where 300 politicians steal 3 millions each? Curious way of counting corruption And, by the way, I think Catalonia is exactly as corrupt as the rest of the Spain, it is not a problem of the comunity, is a problem of the whole society which rewards that any people steal taxes or don't pay VAT CiU, PP and PSOE are equal regarding corruption.

Oletros 9y ago

> In short: please be skeptical about whatever you hear from either side. There’s an estimated 40-45% of support for the vote and less than that (30-40%) support for independence Do you have sources, because the last I know is from El Periodico (against independence) and the amount of people supporting a referendum was almost 80%

gfiorav 9y ago
I follow the numbers closely... it’s always coming from CIS. It seems to have risin after the attacks. http://www.elmundo.es/cataluna/2017/07/21/5971c7f7468aebd53d8b45cf.html http://www.elmundo.es/cataluna/2017/07/21/5971c7f7468aebd53d...
- Oletros 9y ago
  That link doesn't talk about support to a vote, just for independence
  - gfiorav 9y ago
    Support for the vote is at least the same for independence. It’s more, some people against independence are in favor of the vote
    - Oletros 9y ago
      Last poll from El Peridico, 78.9%
    - Oletros 9y ago
      Form the El Pais of today https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/09/23/catalunya/1506191226_220170.html https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/09/23/catalunya/1506191226_2201... > Hasta un 82% de catalanes se muestran partidarios de solucionar el problema catalán con un referéndum pactado y plenamente legal sobre la independencia. La idea seduce a la inmensa mayoría de los partidos independentistas pero también recoge numerosos apoyos entre las fuerzas constitucionalistas.