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The reality is that bitcoin has the first mover advantage. Any other virtual currency has a big mountain to climb to catch up to it. 100 years from now bitcoin

The reality is that bitcoin has the first mover advantage. Any other virtual currency has a big mountain to climb to catch up to it. 100 years from now bitcoin will be around since there is no one entity that defines it and control it. What the community has shown is that they are willing to adapt to the situation. Right now bitcoin has problems but as time moves the code will be modified. What's happening now is that bitcoin is being locked into people's mind as a currency with real value. Whether one can justify it or not is irrelevant. As long as one person is willing to trade goods and services for it will survive. No one throws away a stack of money if they can help it. The community will not let bitcoin die. The mistake people make is that all the current bitcoin constraints are locked forever. I had the same idea but I finally realized that it is not true. The currency is defined by code and code can be changed. It's very hard to change since the majority of the community has to agree but its possible and people will find a way to keep it going. One way to think about bitcoin's future is to look at what software was like 40 years ago and then look at what it looks like today. There's a big difference. Bitcoin still has a long way to go before it can be defined as a mature technology. I have no doubt that what we call bitcoin now will not be what we call bit coin 40 years from now. It will evolve in to the currency and store of value people are hoping it should be. No, bitcoin is not dead.

speedplane 9y ago
> What's happening now is that bitcoin is being locked into people's mind as a currency with real value. I'm not certain that's true. Most of the trading in bitcoin is based on speculation that it'll rise in value, and secondly, that'll become more commonplace. Currently, it's not a useful (or usable) form of currency for the vast majority of the planet. So there's no value backing it (yet). The true test is in X many years, whether BitCoin will be used as actual currency, in which case the value will keep climbing, or whether it'll remain a speculative investment, in which case it'll crash. I learned about bitcoin when it was less than a dollar, and I'd love to invest, but it's just gambling.
- WheelsAtLarge 9y ago
  Keep in mind that there people growing up now that will think of bitcoin as having true value. Bitcoin will not be a thing that suddenly appeared in the world as it did for us. So they will be more comfortable using it. They will just think of it as another monetary asset. The boom and bust aspect will slowly disappear. One of the problems with it is the lack of things you can buy with it. As more people get used to it as a currency the more goods that will be available for purchase. Then we'll know what the true exchange value of it will be. Right now the value is basically guessing and it's driven by greed and fear. That will change. Chase's CEO might be right that it's a bubble but that does not mean it does not have value. The reality is that we don't know its value as a monetary unit. It might go to a million or crash to 1. No one knows. As the problems with it get ironed out we'll find out. People forget that the only reason fiat currency has value is because you can always find someone that will exchange it for goods or services. It has no value on its own. It's a believe in people's mind. Bitcoin will have that same trust in time. One big advantage over fiat is that the community is world wide and it's not locked to one country. I can see a country disappearing from the world but by definition bitcoin is a world monetary unit that's slowly embedding itself into the world psychic. I truthfully believe that in less than 40 years it will as common as the dollar is now. My only fear is that the world's countries will fear it and outlaw it. That doesn't mean it will go away but might slow it down. BTW, I was a anti bitcoin guy but after a little analysis I've come around.
rimliu 9y ago
I've missed something, but bitcoin is not locked in my mind neither as currency nor as something valuable. Like a tool for speculation—sure.
legulere 9y ago
Both the Chinese miners as well as the Bitcoin Client developers have near absolute control over Bitcoin. They decide how the code is getting changed. At least for the miners the motivation is clear: monetary profit (bitcoin is not money). And the only way to keep up the profit is through speculation.
chx 9y ago
I am running a , what would you call, reform micro school for the first four graders. Our biggest challenge as educators is that we really have no idea how the world at large will look like in 20-30 years and yet we need to prepare our kids for that (our answer is they need to love learning, the rest will follow). But assuming anything a hundred years out... may I borrow your crystal ball for a few minutes please? I have a few things I need to check.

speedplane 9y ago

> What's happening now is that bitcoin is being locked into people's mind as a currency with real value. I'm not certain that's true. Most of the trading in bitcoin is based on speculation that it'll rise in value, and secondly, that'll become more commonplace. Currently, it's not a useful (or usable) form of currency for the vast majority of the planet. So there's no value backing it (yet). The true test is in X many years, whether BitCoin will be used as actual currency, in which case the value will keep climbing, or whether it'll remain a speculative investment, in which case it'll crash. I learned about bitcoin when it was less than a dollar, and I'd love to invest, but it's just gambling.

WheelsAtLarge 9y ago
Keep in mind that there people growing up now that will think of bitcoin as having true value. Bitcoin will not be a thing that suddenly appeared in the world as it did for us. So they will be more comfortable using it. They will just think of it as another monetary asset. The boom and bust aspect will slowly disappear. One of the problems with it is the lack of things you can buy with it. As more people get used to it as a currency the more goods that will be available for purchase. Then we'll know what the true exchange value of it will be. Right now the value is basically guessing and it's driven by greed and fear. That will change. Chase's CEO might be right that it's a bubble but that does not mean it does not have value. The reality is that we don't know its value as a monetary unit. It might go to a million or crash to 1. No one knows. As the problems with it get ironed out we'll find out. People forget that the only reason fiat currency has value is because you can always find someone that will exchange it for goods or services. It has no value on its own. It's a believe in people's mind. Bitcoin will have that same trust in time. One big advantage over fiat is that the community is world wide and it's not locked to one country. I can see a country disappearing from the world but by definition bitcoin is a world monetary unit that's slowly embedding itself into the world psychic. I truthfully believe that in less than 40 years it will as common as the dollar is now. My only fear is that the world's countries will fear it and outlaw it. That doesn't mean it will go away but might slow it down. BTW, I was a anti bitcoin guy but after a little analysis I've come around.

rimliu 9y ago

I've missed something, but bitcoin is not locked in my mind neither as currency nor as something valuable. Like a tool for speculation—sure.

legulere 9y ago

Both the Chinese miners as well as the Bitcoin Client developers have near absolute control over Bitcoin. They decide how the code is getting changed. At least for the miners the motivation is clear: monetary profit (bitcoin is not money). And the only way to keep up the profit is through speculation.

chx 9y ago

I am running a , what would you call, reform micro school for the first four graders. Our biggest challenge as educators is that we really have no idea how the world at large will look like in 20-30 years and yet we need to prepare our kids for that (our answer is they need to love learning, the rest will follow). But assuming anything a hundred years out... may I borrow your crystal ball for a few minutes please? I have a few things I need to check.