12 ms·

Based on the Australian experience, the next wave of price declines for residential solar will indeed come from balance-of-system cost declines, increased insta

by D_Alex 9y ago

Based on the Australian experience, the next wave of price declines for residential solar will indeed come from balance-of-system cost declines, increased installation efficiency and lower profits. Current costs in Australia are about A$ 1.70 /pk-W (~US$1.35), pre-subsidies, split roughly into 35% modules, 10% inverter, 10% mounting system, 10% other hardware (cabling, switchboard etc), 10% installation and 25% "vendor's margin", including marketing, sales and profits. The household has also to pay for a bi-directional meter to allow for energy sales. IIRC that was around A$350. It's a mystery why the US costs are so high - maybe not enough competition?

maxerickson 9y ago
Probably not enough interest. It'd be interesting to see the costs split out based on available sun. I would guess they are lower in Phoenix than in Connecticut.
flgb 9y ago
Energy costs are significantly lower in the US.
extrapickles 9y ago
Most of the northern states don't have much sunlight and have cheap enough power to make it not worth it.
- fastbeef 9y ago
  A common misconception. Even in northern Sweden, which is above the arctic circle, you can still generate ~80% of the energy that Southern Europe generates.
  - extrapickles 9y ago
    It's a combination of the 80% output and the cheap local hydro power which makes it not attractive.
    - fastbeef 9y ago
      It's true that power here is cheap (~0.1€ per kWh). However, since most electric companies buy back what you overproduce you can get an installation that covers your whole years supply and have it paid of in 7-10 years.
  - shandor 9y ago
    This is fascinating if true. Do you gave any sources, I'd be really interested in reading more on the matter.
    - bjelkeman-again 9y ago
      This gives a good overview. What people miss is that during the summer the sun is up all the time. (In the winter, not so much.) And average cloud cover is also accounted for. http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/countries/europe/EU-Glob_opta_presentation.png http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/countries/europe/EU-Glob_op...
      - DamonHD 9y ago
        PVGIS is an excellent tool and I have been using it for years!
      - shandor 9y ago
        Thanks! That is quite surprising, and very encouraging. It seems that solar is a very good overall fit for even most of the world, and once the tech is good enough to be used in huge numbers the differences can probably be compensated with other, local power sources (like hydro in Scandinavia, which is huge there).
      - kodfodrasz 9y ago
        Do I understand correctly that the wishful thinking value of 75% photovoltaic conversion efficiency is plotted in the diagram?
        ju-st 9y ago
        It means the conversion factor of yearly yield in kWh to installed PV in kWp. "Yearly sum of solar electricity generated by 1 kWp system". It's not about the physical PV efficiency.
        deleted 9y ago
        [deleted]
  - fallingfrog 9y ago
    Here in Maine your solar panels are going to be covered with snow 5 months of the year, so the power production in the winter can't be very significant.. It's one thing to store energy between night and day and it's another thing to store energy between summer and winter. Don't get me wrong, I think solar is the future, but not sure how to make it work up north.
    - pmyjavec 9y ago
      In curious about this, does it snow so heavily for 5 months there would be no way to clear the panels? I mean they're installed at an angle to start with so how does the snow build up? Could panels not be designed with inbuilt defrosters?
      - fallingfrog 9y ago
        The snow could be cleared off with a shovel, but then you have to either pay someone to do it in the case of industrial solar, or in the case of home solar, go up on your roof when it's covered with ice and snow, not the safest maneuver. Defrosters might be possible but that might use more power than the panels generate. You'd have to raise the temperature of the panels to above the freezing point of water, which might be a change of 20 or 30 degrees F on really cold days. Some years are worse than others- 2014 was really bad, I didn't see bare ground until late April.
    - fps 9y ago
      I live in Massachusetts, and have 37 250 watt panels. Snow isn't an issue. The panels generate a little bit of resistive heat, which means snow typically doesn't stick. If it's snowing so heavy, and is so cold that the panels do get covered with snow, the snow melts and slides off within an hour or so. In July my panels make 1300 kwh and in December and January they make 300 kwh, mostly because of the angle of the sun and the length of the time above the horizon. I also have significant southern tree cover, so my production is not optimal for my area.
- ehsankia 9y ago
  What about some place like California? It has sunlight almost all year round, it has a pretty progressive government, and a leading tech sector. With house prices being so high, so the cost of solar panels would be relatively lower too.
  - eru 9y ago
    They also have a crazy amount of NIMBYs. Though they might not have figured out how to object to solar panels, yet?
    - HillaryBriss 9y ago
      in Los Angeles, solar panels are becoming increasingly common on single family dwellings. as more and more existing trees die off because of higher water costs and a general theme of reduced water usage, there's a little bit less shade, too.
NamTaf 9y ago
It's worth noting that in Queensland, we saw a big decline in cost after the feed-in tariff was dropped substantially in 2012, reducing demand. I paid AU$8500 for a 3kW system when I could lock in a 44c feed-in tariff, but everyone knew there was a deadline looming that wasn't changing. Once that deadline hit and it dropped to 6c, demand for installs dropped and the subsequent price dropped towards where we are now. Essnetially, panel and other equipment supply (as well as labour supply) overcame demand and the price fell as a result. We also had the renewable energy credits scheme which made the price float about a bit since they were a traded commodity and the installer would take them off you for a price reduction proportional to their market value (if you elected to not instead keep them for yourself and pay 'full' price, but then have to sell them yourself too). Basically what I'm saying is that there were multiple levers causing the price to float around a lot over the last 5-8 years and it's not strictly just because gradually supply/competition grew.
wallace_f 9y ago
Based on that, shouldn't it be possible to get close to a 35% price decline, as long as the government allows you to buy wholesale and self install? It would be great to see a DIY community around this, making widespread adoption even cheaper.
- eru 9y ago
  You can definitely get a monetary price decline from DIY. But most people's time has value, too.
  - wallace_f 9y ago
    Not sure what your lifestyle is like, but I think you would be surprised by how many people are willing to do weekend DIY projects on their homes, especially if they will save them money.
    - bradfa 9y ago
      A properly done and code-compliant residential rooftop solar install is non-trivial for many DIYers. I do lots of things around my house but a rooftop solar install is something I'd definitely hire an experienced and insured contractor for.
    - toomuchtodo 9y ago
      Your typical DIYer is unable to penetrate an asphalt shingle or metal roof and properly waterproof those penetrations for the panel frame supports, voiding your roof warranty and possibly negating any ability to make a claim for water damage from your homeowner's insurance. Also, any electrical work in most sane jurisdictions is going to require signoff from both the local code department and the utility (if grid tie). The labor of a professional is cheaper than possible poor outcomes.
      - wallace_f 9y ago
        Ok, I can appreciate those concerns, but if someone wants to do this, I think that's their right. What if they have a cabin that they want to wire with solar? What if they just want to setup some panels on top of an awning, or in their backyard, and hook them up to a beer cooler? To be fair I installed a solar+2nd battery+inverter that can also charge or be charged from the primary battery in an RV. I waterproof'd the roof, did the wiring, there's lots of guides on how to do it and it is not rocket science. Should you or my local gov have stopped me from this?

by D_Alex 9y ago

maxerickson 9y ago

Probably not enough interest. It'd be interesting to see the costs split out based on available sun. I would guess they are lower in Phoenix than in Connecticut.

flgb 9y ago

Energy costs are significantly lower in the US.

extrapickles 9y ago

Most of the northern states don't have much sunlight and have cheap enough power to make it not worth it.

fastbeef 9y ago
A common misconception. Even in northern Sweden, which is above the arctic circle, you can still generate ~80% of the energy that Southern Europe generates.
- extrapickles 9y ago
  It's a combination of the 80% output and the cheap local hydro power which makes it not attractive.
  - fastbeef 9y ago
    It's true that power here is cheap (~0.1€ per kWh). However, since most electric companies buy back what you overproduce you can get an installation that covers your whole years supply and have it paid of in 7-10 years.
- shandor 9y ago
  This is fascinating if true. Do you gave any sources, I'd be really interested in reading more on the matter.
  - bjelkeman-again 9y ago
    This gives a good overview. What people miss is that during the summer the sun is up all the time. (In the winter, not so much.) And average cloud cover is also accounted for. http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/countries/europe/EU-Glob_opta_presentation.png http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/countries/europe/EU-Glob_op...
    - DamonHD 9y ago
      PVGIS is an excellent tool and I have been using it for years!
    - shandor 9y ago
      Thanks! That is quite surprising, and very encouraging. It seems that solar is a very good overall fit for even most of the world, and once the tech is good enough to be used in huge numbers the differences can probably be compensated with other, local power sources (like hydro in Scandinavia, which is huge there).
    - kodfodrasz 9y ago
      Do I understand correctly that the wishful thinking value of 75% photovoltaic conversion efficiency is plotted in the diagram?
      - ju-st 9y ago
        It means the conversion factor of yearly yield in kWh to installed PV in kWp. "Yearly sum of solar electricity generated by 1 kWp system". It's not about the physical PV efficiency.
        deleted 9y ago
        [deleted]
- fallingfrog 9y ago
  Here in Maine your solar panels are going to be covered with snow 5 months of the year, so the power production in the winter can't be very significant.. It's one thing to store energy between night and day and it's another thing to store energy between summer and winter. Don't get me wrong, I think solar is the future, but not sure how to make it work up north.
  - pmyjavec 9y ago
    In curious about this, does it snow so heavily for 5 months there would be no way to clear the panels? I mean they're installed at an angle to start with so how does the snow build up? Could panels not be designed with inbuilt defrosters?
    - fallingfrog 9y ago
      The snow could be cleared off with a shovel, but then you have to either pay someone to do it in the case of industrial solar, or in the case of home solar, go up on your roof when it's covered with ice and snow, not the safest maneuver. Defrosters might be possible but that might use more power than the panels generate. You'd have to raise the temperature of the panels to above the freezing point of water, which might be a change of 20 or 30 degrees F on really cold days. Some years are worse than others- 2014 was really bad, I didn't see bare ground until late April.
  - fps 9y ago
    I live in Massachusetts, and have 37 250 watt panels. Snow isn't an issue. The panels generate a little bit of resistive heat, which means snow typically doesn't stick. If it's snowing so heavy, and is so cold that the panels do get covered with snow, the snow melts and slides off within an hour or so. In July my panels make 1300 kwh and in December and January they make 300 kwh, mostly because of the angle of the sun and the length of the time above the horizon. I also have significant southern tree cover, so my production is not optimal for my area.
ehsankia 9y ago
What about some place like California? It has sunlight almost all year round, it has a pretty progressive government, and a leading tech sector. With house prices being so high, so the cost of solar panels would be relatively lower too.
- eru 9y ago
  They also have a crazy amount of NIMBYs. Though they might not have figured out how to object to solar panels, yet?
  - HillaryBriss 9y ago
    in Los Angeles, solar panels are becoming increasingly common on single family dwellings. as more and more existing trees die off because of higher water costs and a general theme of reduced water usage, there's a little bit less shade, too.

NamTaf 9y ago

It's worth noting that in Queensland, we saw a big decline in cost after the feed-in tariff was dropped substantially in 2012, reducing demand. I paid AU$8500 for a 3kW system when I could lock in a 44c feed-in tariff, but everyone knew there was a deadline looming that wasn't changing. Once that deadline hit and it dropped to 6c, demand for installs dropped and the subsequent price dropped towards where we are now. Essnetially, panel and other equipment supply (as well as labour supply) overcame demand and the price fell as a result. We also had the renewable energy credits scheme which made the price float about a bit since they were a traded commodity and the installer would take them off you for a price reduction proportional to their market value (if you elected to not instead keep them for yourself and pay 'full' price, but then have to sell them yourself too). Basically what I'm saying is that there were multiple levers causing the price to float around a lot over the last 5-8 years and it's not strictly just because gradually supply/competition grew.

wallace_f 9y ago

Based on that, shouldn't it be possible to get close to a 35% price decline, as long as the government allows you to buy wholesale and self install? It would be great to see a DIY community around this, making widespread adoption even cheaper.

eru 9y ago
You can definitely get a monetary price decline from DIY. But most people's time has value, too.
- wallace_f 9y ago
  Not sure what your lifestyle is like, but I think you would be surprised by how many people are willing to do weekend DIY projects on their homes, especially if they will save them money.
  - bradfa 9y ago
    A properly done and code-compliant residential rooftop solar install is non-trivial for many DIYers. I do lots of things around my house but a rooftop solar install is something I'd definitely hire an experienced and insured contractor for.
  - toomuchtodo 9y ago
    Your typical DIYer is unable to penetrate an asphalt shingle or metal roof and properly waterproof those penetrations for the panel frame supports, voiding your roof warranty and possibly negating any ability to make a claim for water damage from your homeowner's insurance. Also, any electrical work in most sane jurisdictions is going to require signoff from both the local code department and the utility (if grid tie). The labor of a professional is cheaper than possible poor outcomes.
    - wallace_f 9y ago
      Ok, I can appreciate those concerns, but if someone wants to do this, I think that's their right. What if they have a cabin that they want to wire with solar? What if they just want to setup some panels on top of an awning, or in their backyard, and hook them up to a beer cooler? To be fair I installed a solar+2nd battery+inverter that can also charge or be charged from the primary battery in an RV. I waterproof'd the roof, did the wiring, there's lots of guides on how to do it and it is not rocket science. Should you or my local gov have stopped me from this?