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I haven't collected the hard numbers for what is presented on page vi of https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68925.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68925.p

by sounds 9y ago

I haven't collected the hard numbers for what is presented on page vi of https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68925.pdf https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68925.pdf, but soft costs appear to have swollen to take up most of the cost savings from reduced module prices. In other words, yep.

totalBeginner 9y ago
Here are the exact numbers that went into the figure you reference, the key costs findings by category for 2010-2017: https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/nrel-u-s-solar-photovoltaic-system-cost-benchmark-q1-2017-report https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/nrel-u-s-solar-photovoltaic... Soft costs decreased appreciably from 2016-2017 in both "utility-scale" categories (Fixed-Tilt, and One-Axis Tracker), and have increased slightly at the smaller "commercial" and "residential" scales. Across all scales, soft costs claim a larger portion because other costs are falling more quickly. Only at residential scale has soft cost growth consumed much of the savings in other costs: $-0.18/(watt installed) total cost, $+0.16/(watt installed) soft costs. At commercial scale: $-0.32/(watt installed) total cost, $+0.05/(watt installed) soft costs. While this direction of change is certainly suboptimal, I don't think the magnitude is worrisome yet. EDIT: paragraph/line breaks for clarity of presentation.
kbenson 9y ago
Which from an outsider perspective could have been companies recouping on bets made (discounts offered) in 2016 to grow their brand recognition, etc. It's hard to draw too strong a conclusion from data for for so few years, where costs change so much, and the outlier is the most recent year (which is also incomplete). It's also possible that the actual business costs from year-over-year operation are finally becoming well known, and the installation costs are finally reflecting items that weren't correctly priced in earlier (botched installation fixed, warranty repairs, etc).

by sounds 9y ago

totalBeginner 9y ago

Here are the exact numbers that went into the figure you reference, the key costs findings by category for 2010-2017: https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/nrel-u-s-solar-photovoltaic-system-cost-benchmark-q1-2017-report https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/nrel-u-s-solar-photovoltaic... Soft costs decreased appreciably from 2016-2017 in both "utility-scale" categories (Fixed-Tilt, and One-Axis Tracker), and have increased slightly at the smaller "commercial" and "residential" scales. Across all scales, soft costs claim a larger portion because other costs are falling more quickly. Only at residential scale has soft cost growth consumed much of the savings in other costs: $-0.18/(watt installed) total cost, $+0.16/(watt installed) soft costs. At commercial scale: $-0.32/(watt installed) total cost, $+0.05/(watt installed) soft costs. While this direction of change is certainly suboptimal, I don't think the magnitude is worrisome yet. EDIT: paragraph/line breaks for clarity of presentation.

kbenson 9y ago

Which from an outsider perspective could have been companies recouping on bets made (discounts offered) in 2016 to grow their brand recognition, etc. It's hard to draw too strong a conclusion from data for for so few years, where costs change so much, and the outlier is the most recent year (which is also incomplete). It's also possible that the actual business costs from year-over-year operation are finally becoming well known, and the installation costs are finally reflecting items that weren't correctly priced in earlier (botched installation fixed, warranty repairs, etc).