4 ms·

Could you expand on point 1? Or maybe point to some references?

• nikcub 9y ago
  If you're reading a story a week about x being in a bubble, then by definition it isn't a bubble
  • derenrich 9y ago
    That is not in the definition of a bubble. Nor does it preclude there being a bubble.
• thomasz 9y ago
  “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” - Keynes
• pja 9y ago
  Once a security has entered bubble territory, by definition its price has become disassociated from any underlying fundamentals - bubbles form when rising prices drive positive sentiment which pulls in fresh buyers who buy into the rising price story, driving the price higher which in turn draws in more buyers in a self feeding cycle that only ends when the supply of fresh buyers dries up. Because this is a self feeding cycle, the price can double & redouble from almost any point if the "story" is good enough. So you can be dead right about a given asset being in a bubble, but if you short it the odds are that you're going to get painfully stopped out long before the bubble collapse finally happens. As Keynes said, prices can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent: The history of investing is littered with individuals who were right, but lost their capital because they were simply too early.
  • pja 9y ago
    & if you want evidence of this cycle in action for BitCoin, try this: “The price of BitCoin has a 91% correlation with Google searches for BitCoin” http://uk.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-correlation-google-search-2017-9 http://uk.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-correlation-goog... Obviously BTC can be in a bubble & whilst still having real value - the two things are not necessarily connected. (Although having a good future value story is helpful for a bubble to form in the first place I would argue.)