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I love how if you think something is a bubble, you can just compare it to any bubble in the past, ignoring all of the nuances. If you want a parallel to Tulip
by saosebastiao 9y ago
I love how if you think something is a bubble, you can just compare it to any bubble in the past, ignoring all of the nuances.
If you want a parallel to Tulip Mania, you have Beanie Babies. It was pure asset inflation for the sake of asset inflation. There was no innovation (except in markets for distribution of the asset), just wild speculation on things that were almost completely useless.
I do think cryptocurrency is in a bubble, but I see it far closer to Railway Mania or the Dot Com bubble. In both cases there is a clear cut demonstration of potential utility even pre-bubble, meaning there very likely a post-bubble future for the technology, even if the landscape changes drastically in the meantime. Railway mania in particular had plenty of failures, but it also had many companies that were viable but just overvalued, and even beyond that, there were plenty of companies that thrived post bubble.
I have my own speculations as to who will come out alive when the bubble crashes, and it certainly wont be anything tied to "smart" contracts, which has been the source of most of the ridiculous market behavior as of late (ERC20 especially). Others will survive on their merits, and I'll say this much: If it isn't low latency, low energy consumption, highly liquid, and traceable, it's as good as dead.
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- cm2187 9y agoI am not sure I would compare the invention of the internet or the development of railways to cryptocurrencies. At best, cryptocurrencies are a very minor technological development.
- benjaminjackman 9y ago> Others will survive on their merits, and I'll say this much: If it isn't low latency, low energy consumption, highly liquid, and traceable, it's as good as dead. What are a few things that pass those criterion and hence have a chance at living in your estimation?
- taw55 9y agoWhy is this comment downvoted? (Honest question)