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But.. but.. an 'analyst' for CoinDesk said this was normal and the exchanges will just need to get a license and China welcome them back with open arms. The bu

by korzun 9y ago

But.. but.. an 'analyst' for CoinDesk said this was normal and the exchanges will just need to get a license and China welcome them back with open arms. The bullshit artists that already 'invested' in this scheme will now tell you that China did not matter and the people under them will parrot it. Anybody that disagrees simply doesn't understand Bitcoin or just mad that they could not get on the choo-choo train at the right time.

ceejayoz 9y ago
"This is good news for Bitcoin."
gruez 9y ago
>The bullshit artists that already 'invested' in this scheme will now tell you that China did not matter and the people under them will parrot it. If you're so sure that it's bullshit you're free to put your money where your mouth is and short it.
- korzun 9y ago
  > If you're so sure that it's bullshit you're free to put your money where your mouth is and short it. Let me know when you are back to peddling Amway.
  - sctb 9y ago
    We've already asked you not to post like this, no matter what you're replying to. Could you please stop? https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- skinnymuch 9y ago
  I don't agree with OP necessarily but just because one may think it's BS doesn't mean they think the public and traders think that. So shorting it wouldn't work out for a while in that hypothetical. I don't have too much knowledge about cryptos. And the ICOs occurring certainly seem mostly like BS, but I'm still "investing" (more like trading quickly and selling) to make a profit while this gold rush lasts. Doesn't matter how I feel about it.
- ghostbrainalpha 9y ago
  I know you can short as an institutional investor on GDAX, but is it possible for the average person to do a BitCoin short?
  - niix 9y ago
    Several other exchanges allow you to short without being an institutional investor.
- pja 9y ago
  1) Shorting into a bubble is usually a terrible idea. 2) The only realistic way to short BTC is to do so via a very small list of exchanges. Even if you trust them (which, given the history of cryptocurrency exchanges is hardly a given) the borrow cost is huge: there's no way you could reasonably make this kind of macro BTC bet. The combination of these two realities makes the "If you don't believe the price, you ought to be shorting it" assertion completely baseless.
  - antonislav 9y ago
    Could you expand on point 1? Or maybe point to some references?
    - nikcub 9y ago
      If you're reading a story a week about x being in a bubble, then by definition it isn't a bubble
      - derenrich 9y ago
        That is not in the definition of a bubble. Nor does it preclude there being a bubble.
    - thomasz 9y ago
      “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” - Keynes
    - pja 9y ago
      Once a security has entered bubble territory, by definition its price has become disassociated from any underlying fundamentals - bubbles form when rising prices drive positive sentiment which pulls in fresh buyers who buy into the rising price story, driving the price higher which in turn draws in more buyers in a self feeding cycle that only ends when the supply of fresh buyers dries up. Because this is a self feeding cycle, the price can double & redouble from almost any point if the "story" is good enough. So you can be dead right about a given asset being in a bubble, but if you short it the odds are that you're going to get painfully stopped out long before the bubble collapse finally happens. As Keynes said, prices can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent: The history of investing is littered with individuals who were right, but lost their capital because they were simply too early.
Akujin 9y ago
Some of us who have been holding since Bitcoin was worth $2 are laughing at you.
- QAPereo 9y ago
  Until you cash out, I'd wait on the laughing.
  - Akujin 9y ago
    My "buy in" was a $300 AMD graphics card which I then kept using for games after the mining difficulty was too high. As far as I'm concerned my BTC is an added value. If it crashes to worthlessness I would not care. PS: I have no intention of cashing out. Since BTC is deflationary I'd rather hold till each BTC is worth 100k. Check this thread in 2030 :)
    - QAPereo 9y ago
      For what it's worth, I hope that you make that fortune.
    - mywittyname 9y ago
      Deflationary does not imply an ever-increasing value. At some point, deflationary commodities will be so rare as to be useless. Lack of supply leads to a lack of velocity, which leads to a lack of liquidity. Once that happens, people will move to a competing product. Imagine if soy beans gradually went extinct. In the short-term, the prices would spike as companies reliant on soy beans compete for the shrinking supply. But as prices go up, these companies either go bankrupt, or find alternative inputs to replace soy beans. Either way, the prices eventually hit zero before extinction occurs. The once plentiful and valuable becomes rare and worthless.
      - _muff1nman_ 9y ago
        > Lack of supply leads to a lack of velocity, which leads to a lack of liquidity How does one define supply with a divisible unit like bitcoin? Arguably, supply does not diminish, rather people use smaller units of bitcoins.

by korzun 9y ago

ceejayoz 9y ago

"This is good news for Bitcoin."

gruez 9y ago

>The bullshit artists that already 'invested' in this scheme will now tell you that China did not matter and the people under them will parrot it. If you're so sure that it's bullshit you're free to put your money where your mouth is and short it.

korzun 9y ago
> If you're so sure that it's bullshit you're free to put your money where your mouth is and short it. Let me know when you are back to peddling Amway.
- sctb 9y ago
  We've already asked you not to post like this, no matter what you're replying to. Could you please stop? https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
skinnymuch 9y ago
I don't agree with OP necessarily but just because one may think it's BS doesn't mean they think the public and traders think that. So shorting it wouldn't work out for a while in that hypothetical. I don't have too much knowledge about cryptos. And the ICOs occurring certainly seem mostly like BS, but I'm still "investing" (more like trading quickly and selling) to make a profit while this gold rush lasts. Doesn't matter how I feel about it.
ghostbrainalpha 9y ago
I know you can short as an institutional investor on GDAX, but is it possible for the average person to do a BitCoin short?
- niix 9y ago
  Several other exchanges allow you to short without being an institutional investor.
pja 9y ago
1) Shorting into a bubble is usually a terrible idea. 2) The only realistic way to short BTC is to do so via a very small list of exchanges. Even if you trust them (which, given the history of cryptocurrency exchanges is hardly a given) the borrow cost is huge: there's no way you could reasonably make this kind of macro BTC bet. The combination of these two realities makes the "If you don't believe the price, you ought to be shorting it" assertion completely baseless.
- antonislav 9y ago
  Could you expand on point 1? Or maybe point to some references?
  - nikcub 9y ago
    If you're reading a story a week about x being in a bubble, then by definition it isn't a bubble
    - derenrich 9y ago
      That is not in the definition of a bubble. Nor does it preclude there being a bubble.
  - thomasz 9y ago
    “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” - Keynes
  - pja 9y ago
    Once a security has entered bubble territory, by definition its price has become disassociated from any underlying fundamentals - bubbles form when rising prices drive positive sentiment which pulls in fresh buyers who buy into the rising price story, driving the price higher which in turn draws in more buyers in a self feeding cycle that only ends when the supply of fresh buyers dries up. Because this is a self feeding cycle, the price can double & redouble from almost any point if the "story" is good enough. So you can be dead right about a given asset being in a bubble, but if you short it the odds are that you're going to get painfully stopped out long before the bubble collapse finally happens. As Keynes said, prices can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent: The history of investing is littered with individuals who were right, but lost their capital because they were simply too early.

Akujin 9y ago

Some of us who have been holding since Bitcoin was worth $2 are laughing at you.

QAPereo 9y ago
Until you cash out, I'd wait on the laughing.
- Akujin 9y ago
  My "buy in" was a $300 AMD graphics card which I then kept using for games after the mining difficulty was too high. As far as I'm concerned my BTC is an added value. If it crashes to worthlessness I would not care. PS: I have no intention of cashing out. Since BTC is deflationary I'd rather hold till each BTC is worth 100k. Check this thread in 2030 :)
  - QAPereo 9y ago
    For what it's worth, I hope that you make that fortune.
  - mywittyname 9y ago
    Deflationary does not imply an ever-increasing value. At some point, deflationary commodities will be so rare as to be useless. Lack of supply leads to a lack of velocity, which leads to a lack of liquidity. Once that happens, people will move to a competing product. Imagine if soy beans gradually went extinct. In the short-term, the prices would spike as companies reliant on soy beans compete for the shrinking supply. But as prices go up, these companies either go bankrupt, or find alternative inputs to replace soy beans. Either way, the prices eventually hit zero before extinction occurs. The once plentiful and valuable becomes rare and worthless.
    - _muff1nman_ 9y ago
      > Lack of supply leads to a lack of velocity, which leads to a lack of liquidity How does one define supply with a divisible unit like bitcoin? Arguably, supply does not diminish, rather people use smaller units of bitcoins.