4 ms·
Long Bets is a good site to make a public statement but PredictionBook[1] or Metaculus[2] may be better to track predictions about things we argue about. Both s
by rvern 9y ago
Long Bets is a good site to make a public statement but PredictionBook[1] or Metaculus[2] may be better to track predictions about things we argue about. Both sites calculate your Brier score, which is how you can know how well calibrated you are.[3]
Since prediction tracking and aggregation sites use reputation instead of money, they scale to a higher number of predictions. As proof, there have been only 747 predictions and bets on Long Bets, while gwern alone has made[4] 2275 on PredictionBook. Furthermore, the Metaculus community prediction provides valuable forecast information,[5] much like prediction markets, while predictions on Long Bets don't count as Bayesian evidence of their own.
[1]: https://predictionbook.com/ https://predictionbook.com/
[2]: https://www.metaculus.com/ https://www.metaculus.com/
[3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score
[4]: https://www.gwern.net/Prediction-markets https://www.gwern.net/Prediction-markets
[5]: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/
- wpietri 9y agoSure. These things have different purposes. The Long Now's mission is to foster long-term thinking broadly. We don't care as much how well-calibrated a particular individual is. The point of Long Bets is to generate discussion, argumentation, and consideration. That's part of why we require each bettor to make a case for their side: we're less interested in who was right or wrong than how and why someone was right or wrong. I hope that people also use those sites. But I would love to generate some clear, dramatic bets about controversial topics here. The Buffett bet is a great example. People every day are putting money into one investment or another and have been for a long time, and there's no lack of data on results. But because of this bet a great number of people have thought about these specifics, as well as the many interesting related issues. I'd love to see that around more topics.