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This is only true if the people buying it actually think of it and use it as a currency. I own some bitcoin and ether and have never used them as a currency. If

This is only true if the people buying it actually think of it and use it as a currency. I own some bitcoin and ether and have never used them as a currency. If its usage is not primarily as a currency, it isn't a currency. I struggle to believe there is more value on a daily basis in transactions of btc for goods and services than there is for "forex".

topmonk 9y ago
I think you're putting the cart before the horse here. The reason that USD is used to buy goods and services is not because everyone woke up one day and began to "think of it and use it as a currency". USD just happens to be the most convenient financial instrument for a lot of people. The more people that own and value BTC, the more convenient it will become to transact with, the more stores that will accept it, and then people will think of it and use it as a currency (if it succeeds, that is). Any item of value is priced according to its future utility. So BTC's price now relates to what it's value as a currency will be, adjusted by the probability it will succeed, in the future. If you don't believe that BTC will ever be used as a currency, then you don't believe in the success of the bitcoin experiment in general, and since that's its only purpose, then of course you would have to conclude its in a bubble. But if you do believe in the success of the experiment, then the price does not seem out of whack at all.
- lloyd-christmas 9y ago
  > I think you're putting the cart before the horse here. I'd argue that you are the one doing this. You're labeling something as what you'd like it to be and what it's intended to be, not what it is. > If you don't believe that BTC will ever be used as a currency, then you don't believe in the success of the bitcoin experiment in general, and since that's its only purpose, then of course you would have to conclude its in a bubble This is irrelevant to me. If I can profit off something, I don't need to form conclusions as to whether or not it's a bubble or whether or not it will succeed. I worked as an equities trader for half a decade. I didn't need to know the 5 year plan of AMZN before I bought it, nor did I need to know the 5 minute plan of a company stock that dropped 50% in a minute because of one large seller. All I needed was some clue that other people are willing to buy it for more than I did at some point in the future. At this moment in time, that's exactly what BTC is to me. I think it would be neat if it succeeded, but that isn't why I own it at this moment in time.
  - topmonk 9y ago
    > I'd argue that you are the one doing this. You're labeling something as what you'd like it to be and what it's intended to be, not what it is. What does "labeling" mean? I'm just saying the value of cryptocurrency depends on whether in the future it will be used as a currency. If it will, then it's value is much higher than it's current price. If not, then it's value is zero. > This is irrelevant to me. If I can profit off something, I don't need to form conclusions as to whether or not it's a bubble or whether or not it will succeed. I thought we were talking about whether crypto is in a bubble or not. No? Then what are you talking about? Irrelevant to what?

topmonk 9y ago

I think you're putting the cart before the horse here. The reason that USD is used to buy goods and services is not because everyone woke up one day and began to "think of it and use it as a currency". USD just happens to be the most convenient financial instrument for a lot of people. The more people that own and value BTC, the more convenient it will become to transact with, the more stores that will accept it, and then people will think of it and use it as a currency (if it succeeds, that is). Any item of value is priced according to its future utility. So BTC's price now relates to what it's value as a currency will be, adjusted by the probability it will succeed, in the future. If you don't believe that BTC will ever be used as a currency, then you don't believe in the success of the bitcoin experiment in general, and since that's its only purpose, then of course you would have to conclude its in a bubble. But if you do believe in the success of the experiment, then the price does not seem out of whack at all.

lloyd-christmas 9y ago
> I think you're putting the cart before the horse here. I'd argue that you are the one doing this. You're labeling something as what you'd like it to be and what it's intended to be, not what it is. > If you don't believe that BTC will ever be used as a currency, then you don't believe in the success of the bitcoin experiment in general, and since that's its only purpose, then of course you would have to conclude its in a bubble This is irrelevant to me. If I can profit off something, I don't need to form conclusions as to whether or not it's a bubble or whether or not it will succeed. I worked as an equities trader for half a decade. I didn't need to know the 5 year plan of AMZN before I bought it, nor did I need to know the 5 minute plan of a company stock that dropped 50% in a minute because of one large seller. All I needed was some clue that other people are willing to buy it for more than I did at some point in the future. At this moment in time, that's exactly what BTC is to me. I think it would be neat if it succeeded, but that isn't why I own it at this moment in time.
- topmonk 9y ago
  > I'd argue that you are the one doing this. You're labeling something as what you'd like it to be and what it's intended to be, not what it is. What does "labeling" mean? I'm just saying the value of cryptocurrency depends on whether in the future it will be used as a currency. If it will, then it's value is much higher than it's current price. If not, then it's value is zero. > This is irrelevant to me. If I can profit off something, I don't need to form conclusions as to whether or not it's a bubble or whether or not it will succeed. I thought we were talking about whether crypto is in a bubble or not. No? Then what are you talking about? Irrelevant to what?