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I agree you need massive amounts of training data. But the marginal value of that data diminishes rapidly after a certain point. Let's say Waymo spends $2 bill
by MarkMc 9y ago
I agree you need massive amounts of training data. But the marginal value of that data diminishes rapidly after a certain point.
Let's say Waymo spends $2 billion to get the training data necessary to produce a fully automated car. A few years later Uber has also spent $2 billion and has a the necessary training data. By that time Waymo has 10 times as much telemetry data, so its cars might be somewhat safer. But as long as Uber cars are safe enough to get regulatory approval they can compete effectively with Waymo. Beyond a certain point people generally care more about cost than safety - look at the airline industry.
Also consider that Tesla seems to be getting telemetry data for much less than Waymo or Uber - they have thousands of drivers who are willing to pay for sensors and test automated driving software for free.
- adrianN 9y agoPeople are not very rational. Almost all trips in cars are very short, yet people are still very concerned about range in electric cars. Being able to cover more exotic driving conditions ("Our cars also work during a severe hurricane") could be a very effective marketing strategy.
- randomstudent 9y ago> People are not very rational. Almost all trips in cars are very short, yet people are still very concerned about range in electric cars As they should be... What good is a car if it can't be used for the occasional long trip? I expect my car to be up to the task to go visit friends or family 200km away on a whim, after coming home from work, instead of sitting idly while my battery is charging for a couple hours... I'm sure many users have the same expectations. Are we irrational?
- Retric 9y agoYes, the absolute worst case for most people is you get a rental car. Having family 100 miles away that you visit regularly is reason to get a 100+ mile range electric car. Having family that lives 100 miles away that you visit every 10 years is not. NYC is a great example where many people making 100+k per year don't own a car because transportation != car.
- lukeschlather 9y agoSure, most trips are short. But short trips are best accomplished via walking, biking, public transit, or taxis. The only reason I want a car is for long trips. It can make short trips more convenient, but also if I were just buying it for short trips there's no point in spending the money, at least not living in a major city. Long trips are usually cost-prohibitive without a car that has decent range, at least relative to the cost of a gas-burning vehicle.