3 ms·

I think the end game is more like the end of individual car ownership in cities. Company-owned or ideally(!!!) municiple fleets would be much more efficient in

I think the end game is more like the end of individual car ownership in cities. Company-owned or ideally(!!!) municiple fleets would be much more efficient in that idle time and parking would fade away.

simonh 9y ago
I agree that's the end-game but recently I've revised my expected timetable. I fully expected that my daughters, now 12 and 13, might never need to own cars. My wife even thinks they may never need to learn to drive. I now think that's unrealistic. It's true that for 95%+ of most journeys, self driving cars would be fine, but that last 5% or less really matters even if for only a minority of journeys. Finding a parking space can be very hard and our current streets, curbs and driveways aren't designed for self-driving vehicles. Rural settings can also be highly challenging. I think the big changes initially will be road haulage because companies can re-engineer pickup and drop-off points to be highly autonomous friendly and automated. Next will be companies like Uber and Lyft providing driverless cabs from and to designated points. Then a gradual demographic trend to less car ownership, but driverless cars for the masses are going to take at least a decade to come IMHO. The last 10m is really tough in too many common scenarios.
- elguyosupremo 9y ago
  I agree that the last 10 meters is going to be one of the harder things to solve, but i think you'll see people building calibrated parking spots into their driveways (some way of teaching the car how to get there from the road) and perhaps even companies doing the same with their parking lots and then publishing the details online. As self driving cars become more ubiquitous there will be companies that spring up to precision map places and feed that data into whatever databases the cars use.
dx034 9y ago
Not sure about that. Sure it makes sense, taking public transport in Europe also makes sense and many people use it most of the time. But there are times when you want your own car. And with a family that happens often. Also, many people love cars. I don't think many people (esp those with family) will give up their car. Can be more expensive and less convenient and most will still do it. If cars were really just to get around, we'd see different kinds of cars on the road. Cars are a lifestyle symbol and for many people a place where they spend a lot of time. You don't want to rely on municiple fleets for that.

simonh 9y ago

I agree that's the end-game but recently I've revised my expected timetable. I fully expected that my daughters, now 12 and 13, might never need to own cars. My wife even thinks they may never need to learn to drive. I now think that's unrealistic. It's true that for 95%+ of most journeys, self driving cars would be fine, but that last 5% or less really matters even if for only a minority of journeys. Finding a parking space can be very hard and our current streets, curbs and driveways aren't designed for self-driving vehicles. Rural settings can also be highly challenging. I think the big changes initially will be road haulage because companies can re-engineer pickup and drop-off points to be highly autonomous friendly and automated. Next will be companies like Uber and Lyft providing driverless cabs from and to designated points. Then a gradual demographic trend to less car ownership, but driverless cars for the masses are going to take at least a decade to come IMHO. The last 10m is really tough in too many common scenarios.

elguyosupremo 9y ago
I agree that the last 10 meters is going to be one of the harder things to solve, but i think you'll see people building calibrated parking spots into their driveways (some way of teaching the car how to get there from the road) and perhaps even companies doing the same with their parking lots and then publishing the details online. As self driving cars become more ubiquitous there will be companies that spring up to precision map places and feed that data into whatever databases the cars use.

dx034 9y ago

Not sure about that. Sure it makes sense, taking public transport in Europe also makes sense and many people use it most of the time. But there are times when you want your own car. And with a family that happens often. Also, many people love cars. I don't think many people (esp those with family) will give up their car. Can be more expensive and less convenient and most will still do it. If cars were really just to get around, we'd see different kinds of cars on the road. Cars are a lifestyle symbol and for many people a place where they spend a lot of time. You don't want to rely on municiple fleets for that.