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> If this were true, salaries would be skyrocketing In my corner of the world, they definitely are. I think a lot of these discussions are complicated by the

> If this were true, salaries would be skyrocketing In my corner of the world, they definitely are. I think a lot of these discussions are complicated by the fact that there are essentially two developer job markets: prime and sub-prime. The prime developer market is for top-tier developers who work at top tech companies and startups, primarily in SV & NYC. The sub-prime developer market is all the developers working on companies whose primary product isn't software. The hiring market for both markets looks very different, especially since people don't really recognize that as such. A hiring manager in the prime market might legitimately perceive there as being a shortage, even when receiving dozens or hundreds of resumes because the vast majority of those resumes are simply not qualified. When I was last hiring, we received plenty of resumes—but many of those resumes were from people who exclusively had Microsoft experience or simply maintained WordPress installations. They didn't meet my standard for a senior developer, and once we found someone who did meet that standard after months of searching we did whatever it took to hire them. I don't feel like an outlier, since I'm looking at the market from the prime sector where it's normal and expected to have multiple competing offers. There can be a shortage of senior developers while still having hundreds of applications for every open position because most of those applications won't pass the bar. If you're capable of passing that bar, you have your pick of positions.

ryandrake 9y ago
My guess is that what you describe as the "prime" developer market represents 1% of the tech labor force, surely no more than 10%. Much smaller than you think it is. There are plenty of talented people, even in these "top" tech companies, who do not have 6-7 offers thrown at them regularly and have to slug it out with the rest of us in a brutal labor market. I think what is being argued here is whether collective action would be beneficial to the remaining 90-99%.
- morgante 9y ago
  It's certainly more than 1%. Top tech companies alone employ more than 1% of developers. > There are plenty of talented people, even in these "top" tech companies, who do not have 6-7 offers thrown at them That doesn't match my experience at all. Every Google/Facebook/Amazon employee I know constantly has interview requests and people trying to recruit them.
  - ryandrake 9y ago
    > It's certainly more than 1%. Top tech companies alone employ more than 1% of developers. That would be true only if you assumed around a huge number of top tech company hires were those prime developers. I've worked at all kinds of companies, including one you would undoubtedly consider "top." They all employ the full distribution. The mean will be higher in the top companies, but that's it. > That doesn't match my experience at all. Every Google/Facebook/Amazon employee I know constantly has interview requests and people trying to recruit them. Obviously it doesn't match your personal experience--we've already established that you're one of those "prime" developers. Likely your co-worker/acquaintance bubble is full of them too. Our perception of normal is often clouded by what we encounter every day. You see this all the time here on HN, where commenters tend to be smarter than the average bear. In that respect, I am open to applying that same reasoning to myself: I see talented people underemployed, struggling to get recognized, and at the mercy of their employer; and therefore I am potentially extrapolating this as normal. I think the numbers bear me out, but I admit I have not done more than casual Internet-research.
    - morgante 9y ago
      > That would be true only if you assumed around a huge number of top tech company hires were those prime developers. I do assume that. Yes, there is a distribution of abilities at top tech companies—but virtually everyone I've worked with at a good company could easily get other offers. If you actually worked at a top tech company, your bubble should be similar to mine—I have a hard time imaging that many of your FANG colleagues are having trouble getting good employment offers.
Clubber 9y ago
So what would the average prime developer expect to make in SV?
- morgante 9y ago
  $200-300k in total compensation.
  - Clubber 9y ago
    I don't want this to sound like it probably does but that's not overly impressive for a place like SV. I mean it sounds like a lot before you calculate cost of living (and it would be a lot here). A good self disciplined developer where I live (accounting for cost of living) would make the north end of that from a not very known company (that's not even a software company). A not great maintenance developer that requires a lot of direction with 5 years experience would make about $150K in SV (adjusted). I'm pointing this out because it's important for developers to know at least their (adjusted) market value. The taboo about salaries only stands to help employers. Also, it's a negotiating tactic to have the other person throw out the first number, that's why job listings rarely list salaries. For me, the only way I would gain is to collect a large (adjusted) salary for a few years, keeping my expenses as low as possible (not that easy in SV), then moving back to a lower cost of living area. That doesn't seem to be worth the trouble though. FWIW, I would expect a prime developer working for one of the big five to make at least double that based on what they contribute to the bottom line. That's not going to happen with the way the negotiation is stacked against an individual.
    - morgante 9y ago
      My estimate is skewed downwards because you asked for average, and a significant percentage of the cohort is new grads and relatively inexperienced developers. Senior developers can certainly make above $300k. You seem to put far too much stock in cost of living adjustments (a very common fallacy on HN). Such adjustments should be applied to expenses, not income, and neglects the fact that many expenses don't multiplicatively scale with location. It's very possible to live a good life even in SV/NYC on $60k/yr in expenses, leaving tons of room for aggressive savings. Instead of talking about bogus adjusted salaries, give me hard numbers on why you think $300k is a low salary. At the very least, tell me what bogus adjustment number you're using. > The taboo about salaries only stands to help employers. It also helps highly-paid workers who only have to justify their salary to managers instead of to all their peers as well. > Also, it's a negotiating tactic to have the other person throw out the first number It's a tactic but not a very good one. I've conducted my own split tests and anchoring with a high number tends to lead to much better results while not wasting your time on people who think paying a senior developer $120k is reasonable.
eli_gottlieb 9y ago
>A hiring manager in the prime market might legitimately perceive there as being a shortage, even when receiving dozens or hundreds of resumes because the vast majority of those resumes are simply not qualified. I was unemployed last winter into spring. I had job experience on my resume, as an embedded firmware developer. No company doing embedded wanted to hire me, because I'd worked on a small variety of fairly specific boards. No company doing non-embedded wanted to hire me, because I lacked substantial web-dev experience. I thus went from a six-figure year to depressingly continual unemployment. I have a job now, but at a reduced salary because, well, I have to be the junior to do webdev (a friend helped me out). Really seems to me like there's no shortage, and salaries are not skyrocketing. Nothing's gotten expensive enough that anyone's considered hiring people without exact skill combinations, but who otherwise have solid records.

ryandrake 9y ago

My guess is that what you describe as the "prime" developer market represents 1% of the tech labor force, surely no more than 10%. Much smaller than you think it is. There are plenty of talented people, even in these "top" tech companies, who do not have 6-7 offers thrown at them regularly and have to slug it out with the rest of us in a brutal labor market. I think what is being argued here is whether collective action would be beneficial to the remaining 90-99%.

morgante 9y ago
It's certainly more than 1%. Top tech companies alone employ more than 1% of developers. > There are plenty of talented people, even in these "top" tech companies, who do not have 6-7 offers thrown at them That doesn't match my experience at all. Every Google/Facebook/Amazon employee I know constantly has interview requests and people trying to recruit them.
- ryandrake 9y ago
  > It's certainly more than 1%. Top tech companies alone employ more than 1% of developers. That would be true only if you assumed around a huge number of top tech company hires were those prime developers. I've worked at all kinds of companies, including one you would undoubtedly consider "top." They all employ the full distribution. The mean will be higher in the top companies, but that's it. > That doesn't match my experience at all. Every Google/Facebook/Amazon employee I know constantly has interview requests and people trying to recruit them. Obviously it doesn't match your personal experience--we've already established that you're one of those "prime" developers. Likely your co-worker/acquaintance bubble is full of them too. Our perception of normal is often clouded by what we encounter every day. You see this all the time here on HN, where commenters tend to be smarter than the average bear. In that respect, I am open to applying that same reasoning to myself: I see talented people underemployed, struggling to get recognized, and at the mercy of their employer; and therefore I am potentially extrapolating this as normal. I think the numbers bear me out, but I admit I have not done more than casual Internet-research.
  - morgante 9y ago
    > That would be true only if you assumed around a huge number of top tech company hires were those prime developers. I do assume that. Yes, there is a distribution of abilities at top tech companies—but virtually everyone I've worked with at a good company could easily get other offers. If you actually worked at a top tech company, your bubble should be similar to mine—I have a hard time imaging that many of your FANG colleagues are having trouble getting good employment offers.

Clubber 9y ago

So what would the average prime developer expect to make in SV?

morgante 9y ago
$200-300k in total compensation.
- Clubber 9y ago
  I don't want this to sound like it probably does but that's not overly impressive for a place like SV. I mean it sounds like a lot before you calculate cost of living (and it would be a lot here). A good self disciplined developer where I live (accounting for cost of living) would make the north end of that from a not very known company (that's not even a software company). A not great maintenance developer that requires a lot of direction with 5 years experience would make about $150K in SV (adjusted). I'm pointing this out because it's important for developers to know at least their (adjusted) market value. The taboo about salaries only stands to help employers. Also, it's a negotiating tactic to have the other person throw out the first number, that's why job listings rarely list salaries. For me, the only way I would gain is to collect a large (adjusted) salary for a few years, keeping my expenses as low as possible (not that easy in SV), then moving back to a lower cost of living area. That doesn't seem to be worth the trouble though. FWIW, I would expect a prime developer working for one of the big five to make at least double that based on what they contribute to the bottom line. That's not going to happen with the way the negotiation is stacked against an individual.
  - morgante 9y ago
    My estimate is skewed downwards because you asked for average, and a significant percentage of the cohort is new grads and relatively inexperienced developers. Senior developers can certainly make above $300k. You seem to put far too much stock in cost of living adjustments (a very common fallacy on HN). Such adjustments should be applied to expenses, not income, and neglects the fact that many expenses don't multiplicatively scale with location. It's very possible to live a good life even in SV/NYC on $60k/yr in expenses, leaving tons of room for aggressive savings. Instead of talking about bogus adjusted salaries, give me hard numbers on why you think $300k is a low salary. At the very least, tell me what bogus adjustment number you're using. > The taboo about salaries only stands to help employers. It also helps highly-paid workers who only have to justify their salary to managers instead of to all their peers as well. > Also, it's a negotiating tactic to have the other person throw out the first number It's a tactic but not a very good one. I've conducted my own split tests and anchoring with a high number tends to lead to much better results while not wasting your time on people who think paying a senior developer $120k is reasonable.

eli_gottlieb 9y ago

>A hiring manager in the prime market might legitimately perceive there as being a shortage, even when receiving dozens or hundreds of resumes because the vast majority of those resumes are simply not qualified. I was unemployed last winter into spring. I had job experience on my resume, as an embedded firmware developer. No company doing embedded wanted to hire me, because I'd worked on a small variety of fairly specific boards. No company doing non-embedded wanted to hire me, because I lacked substantial web-dev experience. I thus went from a six-figure year to depressingly continual unemployment. I have a job now, but at a reduced salary because, well, I have to be the junior to do webdev (a friend helped me out). Really seems to me like there's no shortage, and salaries are not skyrocketing. Nothing's gotten expensive enough that anyone's considered hiring people without exact skill combinations, but who otherwise have solid records.