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Price model of Bitcoin with Brownian motion leads to $6358 per coin
- panarky 9y agoI don't need Brownian motion to extrapolate the historical growth rate into the future. Is the Brownian motion part supposed to estimate the volatility of a random walk?
- xiphias 9y agoV1 in July wrote $4000. I'm sure that if the model would be updated with the current crash of the price, it would predict significantly less than $6000. I think it's just impossible to do predictions on such timeframe. It's easier to estimate the order of magnitude on 5 year timeframe (current adoption growth is about 10x / 3 years, but it's still hard to measure)