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What’s it going to take before US homeowners start putting solar on their roofs en masse? With all the power outages in Florida after the hurricane, rooftop so

What’s it going to take before US homeowners start putting solar on their roofs en masse? With all the power outages in Florida after the hurricane, rooftop solar would have been useful.

mac01021 9y ago
Rooftop solar only helps in scenarios like that if you also have an attached storage system. You're not going to power your fridge/oven/dryer directly from the panels. I would also like to see rooftop solar become widespread in the near future. But I think for most people to get on board, they'll need to be able to break even on the investment within something like 3 years.
- bamboozled 9y ago
  "Rooftop solar only helps in scenarios like that if you also have an attached storage system." These exist nowadays [1] [1] https://www.tesla.com/powerwall https://www.tesla.com/powerwall
  - sremani 9y ago
    Unless there is a some level of prepper in you, those powerwalls do not make any economic sense. Most of the Solars that SolarCity installs are grid tie-in, means no power at substation means no power even with those panels on roof.
    - ZeroGravitas 9y ago
      Customer located storage solutions do make economic sense in many situtions, that's why some utilities will pay you to have one in your home and let them control it's charge/discharge when they need to. Usually that economic benefit is left on the table due to the utility being poorly regulated but that's subtly different from the thing itself not making economic sense.
      - snowwindwaves 9y ago
        Can you provide a link to these any of these utilities? Most are so focused on reliability they are quite resistant to pushing the limits. There must have been some cost savings such as avoiding building or upgrading a substation
        ZeroGravitas 9y ago
        Green Mountain Power https://www.tesla.com/blog/next-step-in-energy-storage-aggregation https://www.tesla.com/blog/next-step-in-energy-storage-aggre... and Pacific Gas & Electric http://www.solarcity.com/newsroom/press/solarcity-and-pge-collaborate-distributed-energy-resource-projects http://www.solarcity.com/newsroom/press/solarcity-and-pge-co...
        snowwindwaves 9y ago
        the PG&E project is a technology demonstration which is a nice first step green mountain power appears to be a retailer of electricity and not a distribution company; they don't own any power lines. The distribution co. will have to be on board to safely accept power flowing in the opposite direction (from the load), and for the most part they have no incentive for this so don't really care.
        ZeroGravitas 9y ago
        Wikipedia says they own 21,000Km of power lines: Green Mountain Power (GMP), a subsidiary of Gaz Métro, is the largest electricity distributor in Vermont, serving over 70% of the market and more than 260,000 customers. GMP’s core business includes the distribution, transportation, generation, purchase and sale of electricity in Vermont and, to a lesser degree, electricity transportation in New Hampshire and electricity generation in the states of New York, Maine and Connecticut. The GMP network comprises over 1,500 km of overhead transmission lines, 18,000 km of overhead distribution lines and 1,600 km of underground distribution lines, located mainly in Vermont but also extending to New Hampshire and New York.[17] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaz_M%C3%A9tro#Vermont_operations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaz_M%C3%A9tro#Vermont_operati... You may be confusing them with Green Mountain Energy, which got spun off and bought by someone else: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Mountain_Energy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Mountain_Energy
- ZeroGravitas 9y ago
  Storage makes it better, but even just being able to charge your laptop, phone, car and run your air-con during the day would be a win. I don't think most solar installations are designed to operate without a grid connection though, and even not all powerwall installations can run off grid. Though I'm not sure that they beat a generator (diesel or connected to your gas line) if you really anticipate regular grid outages and probably won't for a while.
  - EGreg 9y ago
    Exactly. We need to decentralize energy generation (solar) AND cellphone signals (mesh networking). Here I expound on it at length: https://youtu.be/WzMm7-j7yIY https://youtu.be/WzMm7-j7yIY
  - jaclaz 9y ago
    >Storage makes it better, but even just being able to charge your laptop, phone, car and run your air-con during the day would be a win. You mean the car that is parked during the day in your office parking lot a few tens miles away and the laptop and phone that you are carrying with you? Seriously, without some form of (efficient) storage system, the whole thing depends on exchanges on the grid. Off grid - as I see it - is a very nice solution (still with some minimal storage) for a hut in the woods, where everything is specifically designed for low power (and where you don't have a dishwasher, a washer, etc.), replacing - in a more environment friendly way - the noisy generator, but still it remains something good for youe being there on - say - every other weekend. Having an el-cheapo (diesel or gasoline) small generator for emergencies is handy, but only for those hopefully very rare emergencies, the cost for a good quality (suitable to run often and in several hours stretches) generator and for the fuel is not competitive with solar (though of course the initial cost of solar is still higher).
    - melling 9y ago
      Everyone seems to be forgetting that you can get paid to transmit your extra power back to the grid during the day. Air conditioning, for example, is high during the day. You might not need it at home but someone else will.
- jason_s 9y ago
  >hey'll need to be able to break even on the investment within something like 3 years. ???? That's a 33% discount rate. Kind of insane expectations... I put solar on my house in 2014, after doing a bunch of analysis showing the breakeven point was 8-12 years. After having it and checking the utility bills, it looks like it's going to be 10-11 years. Maybe less if they raise their rates.
atupis 9y ago
Serious question does US have underground cables?
- hristov 9y ago
  Some places, yes. Unfortunately, in most places we don't. Usually wealthier neighborhoods get underground cables, but even then most long distance cables are up in the air, so if a hurricane destroys a long distance cable, you are screwed even if you have underground cables in your local neighborhood.
- astura 9y ago
  Some are. Manhattan is a noticeable case where pretty much the entire power grid is buried. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/07/25/why-most-cities-dont-bury-power-lines/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/07/25/why-m... >All told, the Edison Electric Institute estimates (pdf) that some 18 percent of the country's distribution lines are buried. For the transmission system, only about 0.5 percent of lines sit beneath the surface. "Undergrounding an entire power system," says EIA, "is considered cost prohibitive." Instead, most utilities will just try to bury a few key lines.
- dx034 9y ago
  The low population density makes underground cables very expensive in many parts. Even where you have underground cables for neighborhoods, longer range transport will be done above ground (as in many parts of Europe). It's probably cheaper to rebuild poles every few years than laying underground.
  - lutorm 9y ago
    Long distance lines are usually so large you don't have to worry about trees falling on them, though.
    - dx034 9y ago
      They can still be damaged by debris flying around. Happens less often but just two damaged lines can cause blackouts for huge areas. And repairing them takes much longer. But not sure if any of those got damaged during the hurricane.
danmaz74 9y ago
OTOH, what is the risk of a hurricane destroying your rooftop solar installation? Serious question.
- ph0rque 9y ago
  I would guess the same as a hurricane destroying your roof?
  - mrfusion 9y ago
    Seems like it might be higher. Wouldn't all the 100mph debris crack the panels? I don't think they're impact resistant ?
    - jhayward 9y ago
      Hurricane prone areas have building codes that require hurricane-proof installations. Most panels are built withstand extreme conditions, e.g., 2-inch hail, etc.
      - dx034 9y ago
        I recently read that in parts of Florida the roof needs to be secured with concrete to avoid wind lifting tiles. Can this be done with solar panels? I always had the impression that there's space between the panel and the roof. In this case, couldn't wind of a hurricane lift the panel?
      - djtriptych 9y ago
        But does "withstand" mean "continue to function at 100%" or "probably not kill anyone nearby"?
        jhayward 9y ago
        The building codes are mostly the latter - maintain integrity of the roof, don't become projectiles. The manufacturing standards are more the former, such as "withstand 2 inch hail at X mph and maintain at least 95% of rated capacity"
mrfusion 9y ago
I think installation costs still have to come way down.
xbmcuser 9y ago
Price of storage and ease of installation isn't there yet net metering allowed a large number of home solar installations. Blocking those has slowed it down. The price of panels etc is less than half of a home installatons so panel prices coming down is unlikely to fuel much morenhome solar growth
tdb7893 9y ago
In most places unless there are huge subsidies (e.g. net metering) commercial scale solar should be less expensive overall. Solar owned by the homeowners might help in niche scenarios but overall it's often just not a good investment for many individual homeowners
- ZeroGravitas 9y ago
  Net metering technically isn't a subsidy since they are being compensated for a benefit they provide, it's just forcing utilities to not pay less than they're benefiting, and solar is a good investment for individuals when sensible regulation ensures they get a share of the benefits they provide to the grid. Here's a respected centrist think tank's take: https://www.brookings.edu/research/rooftop-solar-net-metering-is-a-net-benefit/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/rooftop-solar-net-meterin... "Nevertheless, by the end of 2015, regulators in at least 10 states had conducted studies to develop methodologies to value distributed generation and net metering, while other states conducted less formal inquiries, ranging from direct rate design or net-metering policy changes to general education of decisionmakers and the public. And there is a degree of consensus. What do the commission-sponsored analyses show? A growing number show that net metering benefits all utility customers"
  - wbl 9y ago
    It's a subsidy. Powerplants don't get paid retail rates.
    - ZeroGravitas 9y ago
      Powerplants often get paid many multiples of retail rates at peak times. The retail rates are averages. And, in places with air-con usage, those peaks coincide to a high degree with solar production. So it's not a subsidy.
      - wbl 9y ago
        What if we paid consumers like powerplants then?
dragontamer 9y ago
Any more useful than a generator? Generators already have the inverter built in. "Storage" is your tank of gasoline or whatever fuel it uses. Generators are cheaper and more reliable for emergency situations right now.
vailripper 9y ago
At least up here in the PNW, grid-tied solar systems are actually required to shut down in the event of power grid failures (sending power back into "dead" lines is a good way to get people killed), so while I definitely would like to see what you're talking about, I'm not sure a selling point of it is resiliency for power outages.
- ceejayoz 9y ago
  Safety disconnects let you keep the house powered without sending power onto the grid, though.
  - Caveman_Coder 9y ago
    Are these safety disconnects you're talking about at the home, or are you talking about the utilities circuit breakers?
    - ceejayoz 9y ago
      At the home. https://www.civicsolar.com/support/installer/articles/sizing-dc-disconnect-solar-pv-systems https://www.civicsolar.com/support/installer/articles/sizing...
      - Caveman_Coder 9y ago
        I'd still see that posing problems for crews of electricians. A customer home safety disconnect could fail to operate in which case you'd be feeding the supposedly "dead" distribution line.

What’s it going to take before US homeowners start putting solar on their roofs en masse? With all the power outages in Florida after the hurricane, rooftop solar would have been useful.

mac01021 9y ago

Rooftop solar only helps in scenarios like that if you also have an attached storage system. You're not going to power your fridge/oven/dryer directly from the panels. I would also like to see rooftop solar become widespread in the near future. But I think for most people to get on board, they'll need to be able to break even on the investment within something like 3 years.

bamboozled 9y ago
"Rooftop solar only helps in scenarios like that if you also have an attached storage system." These exist nowadays [1] [1] https://www.tesla.com/powerwall https://www.tesla.com/powerwall
- sremani 9y ago
  Unless there is a some level of prepper in you, those powerwalls do not make any economic sense. Most of the Solars that SolarCity installs are grid tie-in, means no power at substation means no power even with those panels on roof.
  - ZeroGravitas 9y ago
    Customer located storage solutions do make economic sense in many situtions, that's why some utilities will pay you to have one in your home and let them control it's charge/discharge when they need to. Usually that economic benefit is left on the table due to the utility being poorly regulated but that's subtly different from the thing itself not making economic sense.
    - snowwindwaves 9y ago
      Can you provide a link to these any of these utilities? Most are so focused on reliability they are quite resistant to pushing the limits. There must have been some cost savings such as avoiding building or upgrading a substation
      - ZeroGravitas 9y ago
        Green Mountain Power https://www.tesla.com/blog/next-step-in-energy-storage-aggregation https://www.tesla.com/blog/next-step-in-energy-storage-aggre... and Pacific Gas & Electric http://www.solarcity.com/newsroom/press/solarcity-and-pge-collaborate-distributed-energy-resource-projects http://www.solarcity.com/newsroom/press/solarcity-and-pge-co...
        snowwindwaves 9y ago
        the PG&E project is a technology demonstration which is a nice first step green mountain power appears to be a retailer of electricity and not a distribution company; they don't own any power lines. The distribution co. will have to be on board to safely accept power flowing in the opposite direction (from the load), and for the most part they have no incentive for this so don't really care.
        ZeroGravitas 9y ago
        Wikipedia says they own 21,000Km of power lines: Green Mountain Power (GMP), a subsidiary of Gaz Métro, is the largest electricity distributor in Vermont, serving over 70% of the market and more than 260,000 customers. GMP’s core business includes the distribution, transportation, generation, purchase and sale of electricity in Vermont and, to a lesser degree, electricity transportation in New Hampshire and electricity generation in the states of New York, Maine and Connecticut. The GMP network comprises over 1,500 km of overhead transmission lines, 18,000 km of overhead distribution lines and 1,600 km of underground distribution lines, located mainly in Vermont but also extending to New Hampshire and New York.[17] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaz_M%C3%A9tro#Vermont_operations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaz_M%C3%A9tro#Vermont_operati... You may be confusing them with Green Mountain Energy, which got spun off and bought by someone else: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Mountain_Energy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Mountain_Energy
ZeroGravitas 9y ago
Storage makes it better, but even just being able to charge your laptop, phone, car and run your air-con during the day would be a win. I don't think most solar installations are designed to operate without a grid connection though, and even not all powerwall installations can run off grid. Though I'm not sure that they beat a generator (diesel or connected to your gas line) if you really anticipate regular grid outages and probably won't for a while.
- EGreg 9y ago
  Exactly. We need to decentralize energy generation (solar) AND cellphone signals (mesh networking). Here I expound on it at length: https://youtu.be/WzMm7-j7yIY https://youtu.be/WzMm7-j7yIY
- jaclaz 9y ago
  >Storage makes it better, but even just being able to charge your laptop, phone, car and run your air-con during the day would be a win. You mean the car that is parked during the day in your office parking lot a few tens miles away and the laptop and phone that you are carrying with you? Seriously, without some form of (efficient) storage system, the whole thing depends on exchanges on the grid. Off grid - as I see it - is a very nice solution (still with some minimal storage) for a hut in the woods, where everything is specifically designed for low power (and where you don't have a dishwasher, a washer, etc.), replacing - in a more environment friendly way - the noisy generator, but still it remains something good for youe being there on - say - every other weekend. Having an el-cheapo (diesel or gasoline) small generator for emergencies is handy, but only for those hopefully very rare emergencies, the cost for a good quality (suitable to run often and in several hours stretches) generator and for the fuel is not competitive with solar (though of course the initial cost of solar is still higher).
  - melling 9y ago
    Everyone seems to be forgetting that you can get paid to transmit your extra power back to the grid during the day. Air conditioning, for example, is high during the day. You might not need it at home but someone else will.
jason_s 9y ago
>hey'll need to be able to break even on the investment within something like 3 years. ???? That's a 33% discount rate. Kind of insane expectations... I put solar on my house in 2014, after doing a bunch of analysis showing the breakeven point was 8-12 years. After having it and checking the utility bills, it looks like it's going to be 10-11 years. Maybe less if they raise their rates.

atupis 9y ago

Serious question does US have underground cables?

hristov 9y ago
Some places, yes. Unfortunately, in most places we don't. Usually wealthier neighborhoods get underground cables, but even then most long distance cables are up in the air, so if a hurricane destroys a long distance cable, you are screwed even if you have underground cables in your local neighborhood.
astura 9y ago
Some are. Manhattan is a noticeable case where pretty much the entire power grid is buried. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/07/25/why-most-cities-dont-bury-power-lines/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/07/25/why-m... >All told, the Edison Electric Institute estimates (pdf) that some 18 percent of the country's distribution lines are buried. For the transmission system, only about 0.5 percent of lines sit beneath the surface. "Undergrounding an entire power system," says EIA, "is considered cost prohibitive." Instead, most utilities will just try to bury a few key lines.
dx034 9y ago
The low population density makes underground cables very expensive in many parts. Even where you have underground cables for neighborhoods, longer range transport will be done above ground (as in many parts of Europe). It's probably cheaper to rebuild poles every few years than laying underground.
- lutorm 9y ago
  Long distance lines are usually so large you don't have to worry about trees falling on them, though.
  - dx034 9y ago
    They can still be damaged by debris flying around. Happens less often but just two damaged lines can cause blackouts for huge areas. And repairing them takes much longer. But not sure if any of those got damaged during the hurricane.

danmaz74 9y ago

OTOH, what is the risk of a hurricane destroying your rooftop solar installation? Serious question.

ph0rque 9y ago
I would guess the same as a hurricane destroying your roof?
- mrfusion 9y ago
  Seems like it might be higher. Wouldn't all the 100mph debris crack the panels? I don't think they're impact resistant ?
  - jhayward 9y ago
    Hurricane prone areas have building codes that require hurricane-proof installations. Most panels are built withstand extreme conditions, e.g., 2-inch hail, etc.
    - dx034 9y ago
      I recently read that in parts of Florida the roof needs to be secured with concrete to avoid wind lifting tiles. Can this be done with solar panels? I always had the impression that there's space between the panel and the roof. In this case, couldn't wind of a hurricane lift the panel?
    - djtriptych 9y ago
      But does "withstand" mean "continue to function at 100%" or "probably not kill anyone nearby"?
      - jhayward 9y ago
        The building codes are mostly the latter - maintain integrity of the roof, don't become projectiles. The manufacturing standards are more the former, such as "withstand 2 inch hail at X mph and maintain at least 95% of rated capacity"

mrfusion 9y ago

I think installation costs still have to come way down.

xbmcuser 9y ago

Price of storage and ease of installation isn't there yet net metering allowed a large number of home solar installations. Blocking those has slowed it down. The price of panels etc is less than half of a home installatons so panel prices coming down is unlikely to fuel much morenhome solar growth

tdb7893 9y ago

In most places unless there are huge subsidies (e.g. net metering) commercial scale solar should be less expensive overall. Solar owned by the homeowners might help in niche scenarios but overall it's often just not a good investment for many individual homeowners

ZeroGravitas 9y ago
Net metering technically isn't a subsidy since they are being compensated for a benefit they provide, it's just forcing utilities to not pay less than they're benefiting, and solar is a good investment for individuals when sensible regulation ensures they get a share of the benefits they provide to the grid. Here's a respected centrist think tank's take: https://www.brookings.edu/research/rooftop-solar-net-metering-is-a-net-benefit/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/rooftop-solar-net-meterin... "Nevertheless, by the end of 2015, regulators in at least 10 states had conducted studies to develop methodologies to value distributed generation and net metering, while other states conducted less formal inquiries, ranging from direct rate design or net-metering policy changes to general education of decisionmakers and the public. And there is a degree of consensus. What do the commission-sponsored analyses show? A growing number show that net metering benefits all utility customers"
- wbl 9y ago
  It's a subsidy. Powerplants don't get paid retail rates.
  - ZeroGravitas 9y ago
    Powerplants often get paid many multiples of retail rates at peak times. The retail rates are averages. And, in places with air-con usage, those peaks coincide to a high degree with solar production. So it's not a subsidy.
    - wbl 9y ago
      What if we paid consumers like powerplants then?

dragontamer 9y ago

Any more useful than a generator? Generators already have the inverter built in. "Storage" is your tank of gasoline or whatever fuel it uses. Generators are cheaper and more reliable for emergency situations right now.

vailripper 9y ago

At least up here in the PNW, grid-tied solar systems are actually required to shut down in the event of power grid failures (sending power back into "dead" lines is a good way to get people killed), so while I definitely would like to see what you're talking about, I'm not sure a selling point of it is resiliency for power outages.

ceejayoz 9y ago
Safety disconnects let you keep the house powered without sending power onto the grid, though.
- Caveman_Coder 9y ago
  Are these safety disconnects you're talking about at the home, or are you talking about the utilities circuit breakers?
  - ceejayoz 9y ago
    At the home. https://www.civicsolar.com/support/installer/articles/sizing-dc-disconnect-solar-pv-systems https://www.civicsolar.com/support/installer/articles/sizing...
    - Caveman_Coder 9y ago
      I'd still see that posing problems for crews of electricians. A customer home safety disconnect could fail to operate in which case you'd be feeding the supposedly "dead" distribution line.