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right. It has less convention than gold and less valuation. Bitcoin market cap is what 50-70 billion?. What is the non-industrial fraction of gold's market c

right. It has less convention than gold and less valuation. Bitcoin market cap is what 50-70 billion?. What is the non-industrial fraction of gold's market cap? 1 trillion? so, if bitcoin permanently stays at 10% of gold's hedging value, it justifies a valuation of 100 billion. that's not counting at all usefulness of bitcoin for money transfers.

Nursie 9y ago
Ugh, methinks you are deliberately missing my point. There is no reason to think bitcoin is a good long term hedge.
- vasilipupkin 9y ago
  there is no reason yet to think that. But my point is it could become that hedge. Because there is no fundamental reason for gold to be treated as that hedge. So, my point is, the fact that there is no fundamental reason to use bitcoin is not really a great argument against it. Because there is no fundamental reason to use gold and it is used anyway.
  - Nursie 9y ago
    There's no fundamental reason, no, however it has proven desirable and valuable over thousands of years. By your logic anything could be a hedge in future. Which is strictly speaking true, but not very useful. You may wish to consider the ~25% drop we've seen in the last couple of weeks when deciding on how well bitcoin holds its value through the ages...
    - vasilipupkin 9y ago
      gold is also volatile and has had 25% pullbacks. Plot gold over time and you'll see. Hedging is not about the volatility per se but about correlation with other investments. anything could not be a hedge. It needs to be liquid, transferable, international, etc. etc. bitcoin is on the way there. I am not saying it will supplant gold, I am saying it could. that probability is certainly not zero.
      - Nursie 9y ago
        And I think you're looking at the world through bitcoin-tinted glasses there.
        vasilipupkin 9y ago
        I wish I had been 5 years ago
        Nursie 9y ago
        Well likewise when they were $0.50 a piece I toyed with the idea of getting some, just in case. That doesn't mean I think they're a reliable investment or comparable to gold, just that in hindsight I could have been very rich by for a few bucks back then. Ah well.

Nursie 9y ago

Ugh, methinks you are deliberately missing my point. There is no reason to think bitcoin is a good long term hedge.

vasilipupkin 9y ago
there is no reason yet to think that. But my point is it could become that hedge. Because there is no fundamental reason for gold to be treated as that hedge. So, my point is, the fact that there is no fundamental reason to use bitcoin is not really a great argument against it. Because there is no fundamental reason to use gold and it is used anyway.
- Nursie 9y ago
  There's no fundamental reason, no, however it has proven desirable and valuable over thousands of years. By your logic anything could be a hedge in future. Which is strictly speaking true, but not very useful. You may wish to consider the ~25% drop we've seen in the last couple of weeks when deciding on how well bitcoin holds its value through the ages...
  - vasilipupkin 9y ago
    gold is also volatile and has had 25% pullbacks. Plot gold over time and you'll see. Hedging is not about the volatility per se but about correlation with other investments. anything could not be a hedge. It needs to be liquid, transferable, international, etc. etc. bitcoin is on the way there. I am not saying it will supplant gold, I am saying it could. that probability is certainly not zero.
    - Nursie 9y ago
      And I think you're looking at the world through bitcoin-tinted glasses there.
      - vasilipupkin 9y ago
        I wish I had been 5 years ago
        Nursie 9y ago
        Well likewise when they were $0.50 a piece I toyed with the idea of getting some, just in case. That doesn't mean I think they're a reliable investment or comparable to gold, just that in hindsight I could have been very rich by for a few bucks back then. Ah well.