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Many commenters seem to be relating this post to the Reproducibility Project, which showed problems with reproducing around 100 psychology studies. It's importa
by forapurpose 9y ago
Many commenters seem to be relating this post to the Reproducibility Project, which showed problems with reproducing around 100 psychology studies. It's important to understand the real conclusions of that project, which is not at all that 'only a small number of studies are accurate'.
Strictly on the basis of significance — a statistical measure of how likely it is that a result did not occur by chance — 35 of the studies held up, and 62 did not. (Three were excluded because their significance was not clear.) The overall “effect size,” a measure of the strength of a finding, dropped by about half across all of the studies. Yet very few of the redone studies contradicted the original ones; their results were simply weaker.[0]
Also, as one person pointed out in the same article:
Dr. Schwarz, who was not involved in any of the 100 studies that were re-examined, said that the replication studies themselves were virtually never evaluated for errors in design or analysis.[0]
And finally, that's how science is supposed to work. Research isn't a hard conclusion but an argument in a long debate:[1]
But the failure to replicate is not a cause for alarm; in fact, it is a normal part of how science works.
Science is not a body of facts that emerge, like an orderly string of light bulbs, to illuminate a linear path to universal truth. Rather, science (to paraphrase Henry Gee, an editor at Nature) is a method to quantify doubt about a hypothesis, and to find the contexts in which a phenomenon is likely. Failure to replicate is not a bug; it is a feature. It is what leads us along the path — the wonderfully twisty path — of scientific discovery.
[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/28/science/many-social-science-findings-not-as-strong-as-claimed-study-says.html https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/28/science/many-social-scien...
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/01/opinion/psychology-is-not-in-crisis.html https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/01/opinion/psychology-is-not...
- pc2g4d 9y agoFailure to replicate at that rate was an alarm bell indicating that studies were less robust and reproducible than previously assumed. It's not entirely "normal" science, as a high rate of failure in replication can be a symptom of publication bias and everything else mentioned in "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False" http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124 http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/jou...
- forapurpose 9y ago> It's not entirely "normal" science, as a high rate of failure in replication ... What is a high rate? What is a normal rate?
- ulucs 9y ago5%, which the p value ensures if it's not hacked (or the papers go through selection effects)
- forapurpose 9y agoThat's the statistical theory, but what is the reality? I would be very surprised if 95% of results are accurate. We would need a study of reproducibility across other fields - and of course a study that reproduces the Reproducibility Project. > it's not hacked (or the papers go through selection effects) There are many, many reasons, besides 'hacking' or selection effects, for results that aren't 100% accurate.