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TL;DR "Its the charging, stupid" Until they have a fast charging option like Tesla's, then all the other auto makers will be "also rans" in my opinion. Case
by drewg123 9y ago
TL;DR "Its the charging, stupid"
Until they have a fast charging option like Tesla's, then all the other auto makers will be "also rans" in my opinion. Case in point: The Chevy Bolt is, on paper, a Tesla Model 3 killer. It is cheaper, has better range, and it is available now. However, there is no way to charge it on a road trip (unless you're a masochist, and want to depend on flaky 3rd party charging networks where the chargers might not work, or might charge slowly). So, because of this, Chevy can't unload the cars, and have so much inventory built up that they've idled the Bolt production line.
And don't say "fast charging is only important for road trips." One of the barriers holding back EV adoption in cities is the lack of charging options for apartment and condo dwellers. At home charging mostly depends on having a garage that you own, and that you can have a charger or 40A outlet installed in. Good luck getting a landlord to do that, and if you have street parking, you're totally hosed. Tesla recognized this, and is now opening Superchargers in urban areas in advance of the model 3 being generally available.
- petra 9y agoSo what's the end game for Tesla ? owning the best charging network with large network effects, and getting high margins?
- drewg123 9y agoI expect that it is evolving. Right now, there are a lot of people who will only get a Tesla for the above reasons. That gives them better market share, and allows them to command a bit of a premium for their cars. Medium term, I'd be willing to bet that they start to make deals to let other auto manufacturers use their superchargers. This would cement their lead in charging, and they might be able to make some revenue from this. Longer term, there will have to be a fast charging network from somebody, especially if Tesla does not open up their supercharging network. I'm really shocked that one or more of the big gasoline companies has not gotten on board with this. They make a lot of their money from the various stuff they sell in addition to gas (food, trinkets, etc). EV "fast" charging is still an order of magnitude slower than gas/diesel refueling, so people will be spending a lot more time in their stores. This should drive up their profit.
- usrusr 9y agoWhy not? If they stay the only "charger network included, that's why we are so much more expensive up front" offering, they will naturally glide into the Apple niche: high prices that inevitably communicate status, but with a perfectly valid "excuse" for those who don't want to appear like status-buyers. There are worse fates for a company/brand. Failing this, they could still thrive as the dominant charging network if they open that up. Might even work in parallel, opening the network but keeping a minimum number of spots reserved for brand cars at all sites, at all times.
- BoorishBears 9y agoThe Bolt has DC fast charging (90 miles in 30 minutes was the tagline, but it's more complicated than that because of charging curves)
- drewg123 9y agoSure.. good luck finding a fast DC charger that works when you're on a trip.
- BoorishBears 9y agoTesla isn't immune from that problem, charger degradation has been affecting the supercharger network for a while now. To me, when EVs are ready for mainstream use, the charging infrastructure will be there. I got a Volt because unless tying yourself to a supercharger is an option, or you own your home and can install an L2 charger, the infrastructure isn't yet where it needs to be for mainstream adoption