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Yep, they're pretty close. Late this year or 2018 they'll have cars driving around empty. I'd like to know more, do you have a source for these claims?

Fricken 9y ago
It's a prediction, I can't provide a source for events that haven't occurred. But Reuters reported they intend to put 'thousands' of autonomous Bolts on the road in 2018: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous-exclusive/exclusive-gm-plans-to-build-test-thousands-of-self-driving-bolts-in-2018-sources-idUSKBN15W283 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous-exclusive/e... Cruise has released some impressive demos on their YouTube page, of vehicle driving around downtown SF: https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA Cruise reported to the California DMV that they averaged on unplanned disengagement every 180 miles through 2016: https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/disengagement_report_2016 https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/disen... What's also interesting is that Cruise is hiring 'autonomous vehicle support advisors', which is for remote assistance. Not something you need to do if you plan to have a test driver in the front seat for year(s) to come: https://getcruise.com/careers/listing/791711 https://getcruise.com/careers/listing/791711 Also, because Kyle Vogt said so, and he's never bullshitted me before, he's got credibility.
- xur17 9y ago
  > Cruise reported to the California DMV that they averaged on unplanned disengagement every 180 miles through 2016 Isn't this disengagement rate several orders of magnitude too high to support fully autonomous vehicles?
  - nrb 9y ago
    For comparison, it's about 28x higher[1] than Waymo reported for the same period. I'm not sure how similar the driving conditions were but I would guess pretty close. 1. https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/946b3502-c959-4e3b-b119-91319c27788f/GoogleAutoWaymo_disengage_report_2016.pdf?MOD=AJPERES https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/946b3502-c959-4e3b... (Page 3 of PDF)
  - Fricken 9y ago
    That's their average for the year. They were way worse at the beginning, and way better by the end. They continue to improve, though I can't give you data on that until late December when this year's disengagement reports are filed. Like once you get to the point where you can go, say, 10 miles in urban traffic without a disengagement, the improvements from then on (as measured by disengagements) improve dramatically, up until you get to the point where it's really hard to discover new edge cases. Waymo in 2016 was at 1 disengagement every 5000 miles, and that's a 4x improvement over 2015.
- mbesto 9y ago
  > they'll have cars driving around empty. > It's a prediction, I can't provide a source for events that haven't occurred. Using the words "they will" makes it sound like an assertion. How are you so confident about "events that haven't occurred" will indeed occur? You listed out reports and demos, none of which necessarily suggest that "Late this year or 2018 they'll have cars driving around empty"? Do you have additional inside information that the rest of us don't have? > Also, because Kyle Vogt said so, and he's never bullshitted me before, he's got credibility. Is this a serious comment?
  - Fricken 9y ago
    If I tell you the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning, I don't actually know it's going to do that until it does. That's kind of the thing about future events, it should go without saying. Nothing you've written is a counter argument. You just used way more words than you need to to say 'I don't believe you'. Yay. My points are that GM is doing well, and that they are scaling up their operation to a degree that wouldn't make sense if they didn't intend to deliver the minimum viable commercial robotaxi service sometime over the next year or so. The counterpoints are that 'this smells like PR bullshit', and that Kyle Vogt is an asshole (because no asshole has ever successfully led a technology company before). You guys have nothing substantiative to argue with.
    - mbesto 9y ago
      > The counterpoints are that 'this smells like PR bullshit', and that Kyle Vogt is an asshole I literally said none of that...

Fricken 9y ago

It's a prediction, I can't provide a source for events that haven't occurred. But Reuters reported they intend to put 'thousands' of autonomous Bolts on the road in 2018: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous-exclusive/exclusive-gm-plans-to-build-test-thousands-of-self-driving-bolts-in-2018-sources-idUSKBN15W283 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous-exclusive/e... Cruise has released some impressive demos on their YouTube page, of vehicle driving around downtown SF: https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA Cruise reported to the California DMV that they averaged on unplanned disengagement every 180 miles through 2016: https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/disengagement_report_2016 https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/disen... What's also interesting is that Cruise is hiring 'autonomous vehicle support advisors', which is for remote assistance. Not something you need to do if you plan to have a test driver in the front seat for year(s) to come: https://getcruise.com/careers/listing/791711 https://getcruise.com/careers/listing/791711 Also, because Kyle Vogt said so, and he's never bullshitted me before, he's got credibility.

xur17 9y ago
> Cruise reported to the California DMV that they averaged on unplanned disengagement every 180 miles through 2016 Isn't this disengagement rate several orders of magnitude too high to support fully autonomous vehicles?
- nrb 9y ago
  For comparison, it's about 28x higher[1] than Waymo reported for the same period. I'm not sure how similar the driving conditions were but I would guess pretty close. 1. https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/946b3502-c959-4e3b-b119-91319c27788f/GoogleAutoWaymo_disengage_report_2016.pdf?MOD=AJPERES https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/946b3502-c959-4e3b... (Page 3 of PDF)
- Fricken 9y ago
  That's their average for the year. They were way worse at the beginning, and way better by the end. They continue to improve, though I can't give you data on that until late December when this year's disengagement reports are filed. Like once you get to the point where you can go, say, 10 miles in urban traffic without a disengagement, the improvements from then on (as measured by disengagements) improve dramatically, up until you get to the point where it's really hard to discover new edge cases. Waymo in 2016 was at 1 disengagement every 5000 miles, and that's a 4x improvement over 2015.
mbesto 9y ago
> they'll have cars driving around empty. > It's a prediction, I can't provide a source for events that haven't occurred. Using the words "they will" makes it sound like an assertion. How are you so confident about "events that haven't occurred" will indeed occur? You listed out reports and demos, none of which necessarily suggest that "Late this year or 2018 they'll have cars driving around empty"? Do you have additional inside information that the rest of us don't have? > Also, because Kyle Vogt said so, and he's never bullshitted me before, he's got credibility. Is this a serious comment?
- Fricken 9y ago
  If I tell you the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning, I don't actually know it's going to do that until it does. That's kind of the thing about future events, it should go without saying. Nothing you've written is a counter argument. You just used way more words than you need to to say 'I don't believe you'. Yay. My points are that GM is doing well, and that they are scaling up their operation to a degree that wouldn't make sense if they didn't intend to deliver the minimum viable commercial robotaxi service sometime over the next year or so. The counterpoints are that 'this smells like PR bullshit', and that Kyle Vogt is an asshole (because no asshole has ever successfully led a technology company before). You guys have nothing substantiative to argue with.
  - mbesto 9y ago
    > The counterpoints are that 'this smells like PR bullshit', and that Kyle Vogt is an asshole I literally said none of that...