4 ms·

Yep, they're pretty close. Late this year or 2018 they'll have cars driving around empty. GM has consistently been underestimated by the public, but they've pla

Yep, they're pretty close. Late this year or 2018 they'll have cars driving around empty. GM has consistently been underestimated by the public, but they've played their cards very well. It's in no small part due to the drive and leadership of Kyle Vogt, who is on his way to the big leagues to join the ranks of Musk, Bezos, and Jobs and those guys.

deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
felippee 9y ago
Once they actually have cars driving empty we will actually learn how close or how far are they. I've seen a lot of PR muscle flexing from big companies before and no longer believe any such stuff. They do that to impress investors and the public, but this has nothing to do with reality.
- Fricken 9y ago
  This PR announcement isn't the only data point, GM has the goods to back it up.
  - patejam 9y ago
    Your comments sound like a PR statement, what goods? How do you know how close they are? Looks to me that they designed a mass-producible car outfitted with self-driving systems (which is very cool!). But they are only just starting to do employee testing. Waymo has been doing that for years.
    - Fricken 9y ago
      Waymo is ahead on the technology. They were ready to begin public trials with their Koala cars in 2015, but the California DMV shut them down, and many of their key people jumped ship. Waymo has since been proceeding a bit more cautiously, and their efforts at this point are oriented more towards smoothing out ride feel, testing under adverse weather conditions, and their early rider program in Phoenix. Whether it's Waymo or GM to officially be the first to have an empty car driving on public roads, the other won't be far behind, though the victory will be largely symbolic. GM's cars still need a lot of polish, and Waymo needs better manufacturing partnerships.
      - ma2rten 9y ago
        Waymo already had a car driving with a blind person.
        Fricken 9y ago
        I'm not talking about one-offs.
ryanmarsh 9y ago
Yep, they're pretty close. Late this year or 2018 they'll have cars driving around empty. I'd like to know more, do you have a source for these claims?
- Fricken 9y ago
  It's a prediction, I can't provide a source for events that haven't occurred. But Reuters reported they intend to put 'thousands' of autonomous Bolts on the road in 2018: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous-exclusive/exclusive-gm-plans-to-build-test-thousands-of-self-driving-bolts-in-2018-sources-idUSKBN15W283 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous-exclusive/e... Cruise has released some impressive demos on their YouTube page, of vehicle driving around downtown SF: https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA Cruise reported to the California DMV that they averaged on unplanned disengagement every 180 miles through 2016: https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/disengagement_report_2016 https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/disen... What's also interesting is that Cruise is hiring 'autonomous vehicle support advisors', which is for remote assistance. Not something you need to do if you plan to have a test driver in the front seat for year(s) to come: https://getcruise.com/careers/listing/791711 https://getcruise.com/careers/listing/791711 Also, because Kyle Vogt said so, and he's never bullshitted me before, he's got credibility.
  - xur17 9y ago
    > Cruise reported to the California DMV that they averaged on unplanned disengagement every 180 miles through 2016 Isn't this disengagement rate several orders of magnitude too high to support fully autonomous vehicles?
    - nrb 9y ago
      For comparison, it's about 28x higher[1] than Waymo reported for the same period. I'm not sure how similar the driving conditions were but I would guess pretty close. 1. https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/946b3502-c959-4e3b-b119-91319c27788f/GoogleAutoWaymo_disengage_report_2016.pdf?MOD=AJPERES https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/946b3502-c959-4e3b... (Page 3 of PDF)
eco 9y ago
Is there anywhere that allows autonomous cars to be tested on real roads without a fallback human driver?
- Fricken 9y ago
  Arizona. Their weather and regulatory climate has Waymo, Cruise, and Uber all testing there. I believe Michigan and Florida are also willing to permit fully autonomous cars on their roads, but most of the action is in and around Phoenix.
  - aetherson 9y ago
    Last I saw, the tests in Phoenix had human back-up drivers. Has something changed recently?
    - Fricken 9y ago
      Nobody is driving without backup drivers yet yet. It's not because they aren't allowed.
- tim333 9y ago
  Volvos were supposed to be rolling in London and Gothenburg this year but it hasn't happened yet. They were supposed to have a member of the public who could snooze or read a book.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

felippee 9y ago

Once they actually have cars driving empty we will actually learn how close or how far are they. I've seen a lot of PR muscle flexing from big companies before and no longer believe any such stuff. They do that to impress investors and the public, but this has nothing to do with reality.

Fricken 9y ago
This PR announcement isn't the only data point, GM has the goods to back it up.
- patejam 9y ago
  Your comments sound like a PR statement, what goods? How do you know how close they are? Looks to me that they designed a mass-producible car outfitted with self-driving systems (which is very cool!). But they are only just starting to do employee testing. Waymo has been doing that for years.
  - Fricken 9y ago
    Waymo is ahead on the technology. They were ready to begin public trials with their Koala cars in 2015, but the California DMV shut them down, and many of their key people jumped ship. Waymo has since been proceeding a bit more cautiously, and their efforts at this point are oriented more towards smoothing out ride feel, testing under adverse weather conditions, and their early rider program in Phoenix. Whether it's Waymo or GM to officially be the first to have an empty car driving on public roads, the other won't be far behind, though the victory will be largely symbolic. GM's cars still need a lot of polish, and Waymo needs better manufacturing partnerships.
    - ma2rten 9y ago
      Waymo already had a car driving with a blind person.
      - Fricken 9y ago
        I'm not talking about one-offs.

ryanmarsh 9y ago

Yep, they're pretty close. Late this year or 2018 they'll have cars driving around empty. I'd like to know more, do you have a source for these claims?

Fricken 9y ago
It's a prediction, I can't provide a source for events that haven't occurred. But Reuters reported they intend to put 'thousands' of autonomous Bolts on the road in 2018: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous-exclusive/exclusive-gm-plans-to-build-test-thousands-of-self-driving-bolts-in-2018-sources-idUSKBN15W283 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous-exclusive/e... Cruise has released some impressive demos on their YouTube page, of vehicle driving around downtown SF: https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA https://youtu.be/KSRPmng1cmA Cruise reported to the California DMV that they averaged on unplanned disengagement every 180 miles through 2016: https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/disengagement_report_2016 https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/disen... What's also interesting is that Cruise is hiring 'autonomous vehicle support advisors', which is for remote assistance. Not something you need to do if you plan to have a test driver in the front seat for year(s) to come: https://getcruise.com/careers/listing/791711 https://getcruise.com/careers/listing/791711 Also, because Kyle Vogt said so, and he's never bullshitted me before, he's got credibility.
- xur17 9y ago
  > Cruise reported to the California DMV that they averaged on unplanned disengagement every 180 miles through 2016 Isn't this disengagement rate several orders of magnitude too high to support fully autonomous vehicles?
  - nrb 9y ago
    For comparison, it's about 28x higher[1] than Waymo reported for the same period. I'm not sure how similar the driving conditions were but I would guess pretty close. 1. https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/946b3502-c959-4e3b-b119-91319c27788f/GoogleAutoWaymo_disengage_report_2016.pdf?MOD=AJPERES https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/946b3502-c959-4e3b... (Page 3 of PDF)

eco 9y ago

Is there anywhere that allows autonomous cars to be tested on real roads without a fallback human driver?

Fricken 9y ago
Arizona. Their weather and regulatory climate has Waymo, Cruise, and Uber all testing there. I believe Michigan and Florida are also willing to permit fully autonomous cars on their roads, but most of the action is in and around Phoenix.
- aetherson 9y ago
  Last I saw, the tests in Phoenix had human back-up drivers. Has something changed recently?
  - Fricken 9y ago
    Nobody is driving without backup drivers yet yet. It's not because they aren't allowed.
tim333 9y ago
Volvos were supposed to be rolling in London and Gothenburg this year but it hasn't happened yet. They were supposed to have a member of the public who could snooze or read a book.