4 ms·

So this headline obviously has broad room for interpretation. It is simply not feasible to dump the ICE in 5 years across the lineup. I would guess that a sizab

by S_A_P 9y ago

So this headline obviously has broad room for interpretation. It is simply not feasible to dump the ICE in 5 years across the lineup. I would guess that a sizable percentage would be mild hybrid, which is kind of the only way to hit some of the forthcoming emissions/MPG/Km/L targets while maintaining the type of "performance" that ICE have given in recent years. Im not sure how I feel about it, as it really just means that cars are going to get a lot more difficult to fix and possibly end up in the junkyard sooner. If battery tech improves enough to allow for a near "refuel" experience, that is the sea change. I am all for this, but if this never comes, the switch to electric cars will likely either be forced by legislation or end up a 30-50 year process.

randcraw 9y ago
A couple big questions follow, if the rise of electric-only cars implies a shift away from today's gasoline-car infrastructure (which seems increasingly imminent): How soon before fast recharger stations are plentiful (and fast) enough to allow long distance trips via electric-only cars? If multitudes of rechargers do not arise, does the inevitability of electric-only cars spell the end of using the automobile for interstate travel once the last gas station becomes unsustainable? If people already are using cars less for long trips, this trend away from road trips may be unstoppable in most of the world, and soon thereafter, everywhere.
volkl48 9y ago
It'll be a 30-50 year process. I don't even think that's a question. Look at the phase-out of leaded gasoline, it wasn't fully banned from sale for on-road vehicles in the US until 1996. The phase-out began in 1976. And that was a lot more clear-cut "this is terrible!" to the average person. ------------------------------- Personally, I expect most countries will never fully ban or need to ban ICE-powered vehicles, just as we don't ban you from driving a Model T or horse & buggy around today. New sales will be required to meet strict efficiency and safety standards and once electric becomes a cheaper option (perhaps with taxes/subsidies to hurry that), new ICE-powered vehicles will become a specialized niche rather than mainstream. They'll probably retain various niches for a long time, but that'll be a tiny fraction compared with current use. Already on the road average ICE-powered vehicles will rapidly taper off in demand as they cycle into wearing out and winding up in the junkyard.

by S_A_P 9y ago

randcraw 9y ago

A couple big questions follow, if the rise of electric-only cars implies a shift away from today's gasoline-car infrastructure (which seems increasingly imminent): How soon before fast recharger stations are plentiful (and fast) enough to allow long distance trips via electric-only cars? If multitudes of rechargers do not arise, does the inevitability of electric-only cars spell the end of using the automobile for interstate travel once the last gas station becomes unsustainable? If people already are using cars less for long trips, this trend away from road trips may be unstoppable in most of the world, and soon thereafter, everywhere.

volkl48 9y ago

It'll be a 30-50 year process. I don't even think that's a question. Look at the phase-out of leaded gasoline, it wasn't fully banned from sale for on-road vehicles in the US until 1996. The phase-out began in 1976. And that was a lot more clear-cut "this is terrible!" to the average person. ------------------------------- Personally, I expect most countries will never fully ban or need to ban ICE-powered vehicles, just as we don't ban you from driving a Model T or horse & buggy around today. New sales will be required to meet strict efficiency and safety standards and once electric becomes a cheaper option (perhaps with taxes/subsidies to hurry that), new ICE-powered vehicles will become a specialized niche rather than mainstream. They'll probably retain various niches for a long time, but that'll be a tiny fraction compared with current use. Already on the road average ICE-powered vehicles will rapidly taper off in demand as they cycle into wearing out and winding up in the junkyard.