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I don't follow BTC news often but it seems like anytime the price goes up or down it is somehow tied to an event in China. Makes me wonder how much of bitcoin's

I don't follow BTC news often but it seems like anytime the price goes up or down it is somehow tied to an event in China. Makes me wonder how much of bitcoin's skyrocketing value is actually based on China's market rather than natural growth. I guess we'll find out soon. In more positive news, it looks like Russia is on path to legalize Bitcoin [1] [1] https://cointelegraph.com/news/russia-is-working-on-legalizing-status-of-bitcoin-other-cryptocurrencies-rt https://cointelegraph.com/news/russia-is-working-on-legalizi...

sillysaurus3 9y ago
Eh, people were saying the same thing about silk road. Surprise: silk road got shut down and BTC's price didn't drop at all. I believe BTC's price is inherently a weighted random walk driven by speculation rather than rational reasons. Not everyone shares this belief, and it's human nature to look for explanations when there aren't any. (An unknowable explanation is still unknowable.)
- narrator 9y ago
  All bubbles have money coming in from somewhere. The Keynsian "Animal Spirits" concept is almost as much B.S as Marxist "Productive Forces".
  - sillysaurus3 9y ago
    I didn't say there wasn't money coming in.
- bdcravens 9y ago
  > silk road got shut down and BTC's price didn't drop at all Yes it did: (though I assume you mean over the longer term, but I don't think that's how most would read that comment) https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/oct/03/bitcoin-price-silk-road-ulbricht-value https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/oct/03/bitcoin-p...
  - sillysaurus3 9y ago
    It did not. I was there, and I watched specifically for this. These articles always get published in response to what people want to believe. If you look at the data, there was a temporary drop followed by an immediate recovery. The article even says this: On Wednesday afternoon the price of one Bitcoin (BTC) was $145.70 on Mt Gox, one of the largest exchanges for the currency. After the news that Ross Ulbricht had been arrested and the Silk Road site seized, the exchange rate plummeted to a low of $109.76, before recovering to $124.00 late on Thursday. Translation: "BTC went from $145 to $124 and then continued to go up."
    - bdcravens 9y ago
      I was there as well. People were freaking out on r/bitcoin and elsewhere. There was an immediate response. The price recovered, but a drop from $145 to $110 (a 25% drop) shouldn't be hand waved away.
      - sillysaurus3 9y ago
        It wasn't a 25% drop, it was a 15% drop which isn't uncommon. This is Bitcoin. It was followed by an immediate recovery.
        bdcravens 9y ago
        Sure, if you pick the price point of $124. I agree, Bitcoin is filled with tons of swings and volatility. I was merely addressing your comment "silk road got shut down and BTC's price didn't drop at all" which is quite inaccurate. I'm a big Bitcoin proponent myself, and don't think we do anyone any favors by painting a false picture. (or to be more generous, keep moving the goal posts)
        sillysaurus3 9y ago
        The price dropped for one day. That does not count as a drop. Pull up the data and show that it dropped longer than a day and then I'll agree that it dropped. How far are we going to zoom in to say that BTC dropped? An hour? A minute? A day is not a useful time interval. Using the lowest point of the day also isn't useful. Traders typically use a moving average. Neither the lowest nor the highest peak is a useful way to compute the price of bitcoin for the day. If you're going to wag your finger and say "Nu uh" and trot out data saying that it went down to X price, well, yes, you're technically correct. But I think most people would agree that the price over the next week is a far more useful way to know whether the price truly dropped or not. In other words, if China's ban results in BTC dropping for a day, who cares? No one.
modeless 9y ago
Recent growth has been coming more from South Korea and Japan. This news has already hurt the price, but it's likely priced in now, and there are plenty of other markets out there. Speculation will continue.

sillysaurus3 9y ago

Eh, people were saying the same thing about silk road. Surprise: silk road got shut down and BTC's price didn't drop at all. I believe BTC's price is inherently a weighted random walk driven by speculation rather than rational reasons. Not everyone shares this belief, and it's human nature to look for explanations when there aren't any. (An unknowable explanation is still unknowable.)

narrator 9y ago
All bubbles have money coming in from somewhere. The Keynsian "Animal Spirits" concept is almost as much B.S as Marxist "Productive Forces".
- sillysaurus3 9y ago
  I didn't say there wasn't money coming in.
bdcravens 9y ago
> silk road got shut down and BTC's price didn't drop at all Yes it did: (though I assume you mean over the longer term, but I don't think that's how most would read that comment) https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/oct/03/bitcoin-price-silk-road-ulbricht-value https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/oct/03/bitcoin-p...
- sillysaurus3 9y ago
  It did not. I was there, and I watched specifically for this. These articles always get published in response to what people want to believe. If you look at the data, there was a temporary drop followed by an immediate recovery. The article even says this: On Wednesday afternoon the price of one Bitcoin (BTC) was $145.70 on Mt Gox, one of the largest exchanges for the currency. After the news that Ross Ulbricht had been arrested and the Silk Road site seized, the exchange rate plummeted to a low of $109.76, before recovering to $124.00 late on Thursday. Translation: "BTC went from $145 to $124 and then continued to go up."
  - bdcravens 9y ago
    I was there as well. People were freaking out on r/bitcoin and elsewhere. There was an immediate response. The price recovered, but a drop from $145 to $110 (a 25% drop) shouldn't be hand waved away.
    - sillysaurus3 9y ago
      It wasn't a 25% drop, it was a 15% drop which isn't uncommon. This is Bitcoin. It was followed by an immediate recovery.
      - bdcravens 9y ago
        Sure, if you pick the price point of $124. I agree, Bitcoin is filled with tons of swings and volatility. I was merely addressing your comment "silk road got shut down and BTC's price didn't drop at all" which is quite inaccurate. I'm a big Bitcoin proponent myself, and don't think we do anyone any favors by painting a false picture. (or to be more generous, keep moving the goal posts)
        sillysaurus3 9y ago
        The price dropped for one day. That does not count as a drop. Pull up the data and show that it dropped longer than a day and then I'll agree that it dropped. How far are we going to zoom in to say that BTC dropped? An hour? A minute? A day is not a useful time interval. Using the lowest point of the day also isn't useful. Traders typically use a moving average. Neither the lowest nor the highest peak is a useful way to compute the price of bitcoin for the day. If you're going to wag your finger and say "Nu uh" and trot out data saying that it went down to X price, well, yes, you're technically correct. But I think most people would agree that the price over the next week is a far more useful way to know whether the price truly dropped or not. In other words, if China's ban results in BTC dropping for a day, who cares? No one.

modeless 9y ago

Recent growth has been coming more from South Korea and Japan. This news has already hurt the price, but it's likely priced in now, and there are plenty of other markets out there. Speculation will continue.