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As a matter of fact, betting markets are a fantastic way of aggregating opinion in the wisdom of the crowds literature. If you have some option that will pay ou

by imh 9y ago

As a matter of fact, betting markets are a fantastic way of aggregating opinion in the wisdom of the crowds literature. If you have some option that will pay out $1 if something is true, and you think there are 70% odds of it happening, you'll buy it if the price is less than 70 cents.

jakeogh 9y ago
It's fun. A few tips from my predictit.org (healthy:) addiction: Never buy at the asking price, put in a buy order lower and let the market come to you. Unless it's a question that will be resolved soon, it's likely your buy order will get filled. Pay attention to how many orders are on each side, often people will "prop up" a market with a series of small orders, which at a glance make it look like a particular position is worth more than it really is. Put in small orders, over and over, don't make big buys unless you can afford to lose. Each day you have more information, not less. Never under-estimate how far the other side will drive down or up a question. Your perception of what the other side will do is prob wrong, regardless whether you are actually correct when the question is called. (for example, you could buy "Yes" for T2016 @ $0.14 (on the dollar) when the Billy Bush tape came out). Stick to what you know. Make sure you understand linked markets before buying a bunch of stuff at 0.99. Keep a strong cash balance. If you put in too many buy orders, you will wake up, they got filled, and your long standing buy orders are now canceled because you couldn't cover them and now you go to the back of the line when you place them again. Always have some sell orders on every position. The swings might hit them and then you can re-buy at a lower price. Consider that there may be players that are not out to make money. Never use the comment sections for anything other than comic relief. Keep track of your time investment, even if you are making money, it might not be worth it. In the case of predictit which is one of the few options for US players, you cant risk more than $850 on any single question (well.. really $1650 on linked markets) so you are not going to get rich.
- irishcoffee 9y ago
  Thank you for showing me(/us) this, I've not heard of it before. Thank you twice for your personal wisdom as to your thoughts/experiences.

by imh 9y ago

jakeogh 9y ago

It's fun. A few tips from my predictit.org (healthy:) addiction: Never buy at the asking price, put in a buy order lower and let the market come to you. Unless it's a question that will be resolved soon, it's likely your buy order will get filled. Pay attention to how many orders are on each side, often people will "prop up" a market with a series of small orders, which at a glance make it look like a particular position is worth more than it really is. Put in small orders, over and over, don't make big buys unless you can afford to lose. Each day you have more information, not less. Never under-estimate how far the other side will drive down or up a question. Your perception of what the other side will do is prob wrong, regardless whether you are actually correct when the question is called. (for example, you could buy "Yes" for T2016 @ $0.14 (on the dollar) when the Billy Bush tape came out). Stick to what you know. Make sure you understand linked markets before buying a bunch of stuff at 0.99. Keep a strong cash balance. If you put in too many buy orders, you will wake up, they got filled, and your long standing buy orders are now canceled because you couldn't cover them and now you go to the back of the line when you place them again. Always have some sell orders on every position. The swings might hit them and then you can re-buy at a lower price. Consider that there may be players that are not out to make money. Never use the comment sections for anything other than comic relief. Keep track of your time investment, even if you are making money, it might not be worth it. In the case of predictit which is one of the few options for US players, you cant risk more than $850 on any single question (well.. really $1650 on linked markets) so you are not going to get rich.

irishcoffee 9y ago
Thank you for showing me(/us) this, I've not heard of it before. Thank you twice for your personal wisdom as to your thoughts/experiences.