4 ms·
It's been almost 10 years already. That is decently long compared to bubbles of years passed. We average about one per decade. I think it makes sense. Lenders
by quuquuquu 9y ago
It's been almost 10 years already. That is decently long compared to bubbles of years passed. We average about one per decade.
I think it makes sense. Lenders have a never ending impetus from Wall St to grow revenue and profit.
When all of the rich and moneyed people (13.5m people in the USA are millionaires) have already taken on loans, who do you go to next?
It becomes a cycle of just digging deeper and deeper into the question of "how do we sell this large capital asset to someone who barely has the ability to pay it back in the next 30 years".
Eventually, small economic cracks (sub prime defaults) lead to medium economic cracks (minor layoffs) which eventually, if the hysteria is massive enough, lead to massive economic cracks (major layoffs, shutting down business arms, pull backs in investment)
Eventually the govt is expected by market actors to become a lender of last resort, the dust settles, assets are repo'd, and over time...
... the cycle begins anew.
So, keep an eye out for the cracks that may be forming right now. Soon there will be another Lehman, another Enron, another Oil Crisis, another speculative bubble bursting due to credit on credit on credit on credit.
- chiefalchemist 9y agoYes. But must we immediately repeat the same series of bad moves? Have we not learned anything?
- quuquuquu 9y agoOh, I completely agree with you! I hate bubbles, I hate predatory lending, etc. However I am very sad to say that my observation is that this is happening again, either from ignorance or deliberate action. I would love to be wrong :(