5 ms·

I think his initial comment is a fair summary of that section: > So I read that as there's no measurable impact on hurricane activity yet. The modelling indica

I think his initial comment is a fair summary of that section: > So I read that as there's no measurable impact on hurricane activity yet. The modelling indicates that they won't get more frequent, but will become more intense in the future (stronger winds, more rainfall).

jacquesm 9y ago
> The modelling indicates that they won't get more frequent Is simply incorrect. "One modeling study projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, but we estimate that this increase may not be detectable until the latter half of the century." Isn't saying they will not get more frequent, it is saying they may get much more frequent but that it will take a long time before we will be able to detect this reliably. Which is logical given the limited number of data points.
- vitus 9y ago
  That's not quite an accurate rebuttal. That modeling study projects a large increase in severe hurricanes, not in hurricanes overall. My understanding is that the models suggest that hurricanes will get more severe, in a fashion that outpaces any downward trend in quantity. "In the Bender et al. 2010 study, we estimate that the effect of increasing category 4-5 storms outweighs the reduction in overall hurricane numbers such that we project (very roughly) a 30% increase in potential damage in the Atlantic basin by 2100."
  - jacquesm 9y ago
    Right you are, but the main point stands.
- Brakenshire 9y ago
  That's a difference in phrasing. All hurricanes won't increase in frequency, but they will get stronger. That isn't contradicted by saying that high strength hurricanes will become more frequent.
- patrickg_zill 9y ago
  "One study projects" but how many other studies are there on the same subject that do not project that? Or, is there only one study found that covers this range of years?

5 ms·

I think his initial comment is a fair summary of that section: > So I read that as there's no measurable impact on hurricane activity yet. The modelling indica

by Brakenshire 9y ago

jacquesm 9y ago
> The modelling indicates that they won't get more frequent Is simply incorrect. "One modeling study projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, but we estimate that this increase may not be detectable until the latter half of the century." Isn't saying they will not get more frequent, it is saying they may get much more frequent but that it will take a long time before we will be able to detect this reliably. Which is logical given the limited number of data points.
- vitus 9y ago
  That's not quite an accurate rebuttal. That modeling study projects a large increase in severe hurricanes, not in hurricanes overall. My understanding is that the models suggest that hurricanes will get more severe, in a fashion that outpaces any downward trend in quantity. "In the Bender et al. 2010 study, we estimate that the effect of increasing category 4-5 storms outweighs the reduction in overall hurricane numbers such that we project (very roughly) a 30% increase in potential damage in the Atlantic basin by 2100."
  - jacquesm 9y ago
    Right you are, but the main point stands.
- Brakenshire 9y ago
  That's a difference in phrasing. All hurricanes won't increase in frequency, but they will get stronger. That isn't contradicted by saying that high strength hurricanes will become more frequent.
- patrickg_zill 9y ago
  "One study projects" but how many other studies are there on the same subject that do not project that? Or, is there only one study found that covers this range of years?