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Most people I know that don't have white collar jobs don't have any expectation they will ever be able to retire. I'd be very surprised if the majority of ameri

Most people I know that don't have white collar jobs don't have any expectation they will ever be able to retire. I'd be very surprised if the majority of americans were in a position to be able to retire.

PoachedSausage 9y ago
I'm in my thirties and work for a government funded research organisation doing work on a particle accelerator. I don't expect or want to retire, but then 'retirement' means different things. I would definitely want to retire if I worked as a brick layer. Pensions are a Ponzi scheme, don't fall for it. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41204209 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41204209
- Retric 9y ago
  No, the math is very different from a Ponzi scheme. Pensions are awesome if you don't have kids. Consider if you have a 5% chance to die at or before 65 who get's the money? Well what if you could get together with 10,000 people and split it with those who live. Now your investments are boosted by those who die and there is no downside as who cares what happens after you die. Unfortunately, such schemes are illegal unless it's though a company. Because really the long tail is living to 120 which means you don't want to aim to be broke at say 95 then turn 95 and be in good health. PS: Remember, returns after inflation can be <3% over 20 years. I want a hedge for that risk other than just having a massive amount of money I can't really spend.
  - uiri 9y ago
    I agree that private pensions are not necessarily Ponzi schemes. It is possible that they are operated that way. It is also possible that they are operated like an actual investment fund. Without looking at the books, it is difficult to tell. However, social security and other government funded pensions are Ponzi schemes. The money you pay in is given to people who are retired at that time. The money you get out is paid by people who are working at that time.
    - Retric 9y ago
      Social Security is running a ~$2.79 trillion dollar 'surplus' as they have collected more than they have paid out. Which means they have not been paying out 1:1 with money paid in. It's also not just a pension fund as you can receive benefits well before 62. Death of spouse with under age children or permanent disability. Now, this does not mean it's a great or even a good investment. But, the trade off of safety vs returns is not actually that bad assuming you live longer than average. PS: Another way of looking at it is there are no 100% safe approaches to investing 10's of trillions of dollars. Your stuck leveraging GDP growth which is only slightly better than inflation and frankly that's what SS does.
    - barrkel 9y ago
      Keeping retired people alive requires devoting some proportion of current economic output to their welfare. Whether that proportion is paid from private savings, public savings, or current taxation ultimately doesn't change the fact that it comes out of current production. You can't save (nice) food, health workers, winter heating, etc. So the real fight is what proportion of current output goes to old people. Private schemes try to ensure wealthy old people get the biggest slice. Public schemes are more vote driven. It doesn't make them Ponzi schemes.
  - PoachedSausage 9y ago
    Yes, pensions can be awesome. One of my colleagues is retiring soon with a very nice final salary pension the likes of which will not be seen by anyone starting now. Most pensions also will not be enough to cover long term care costs if you are unlucky enough to get some form of dementia. Pensions as a concept were a great idea when life expectancy was shorter and most people could mostly look after themselves in old age. I don't think they can survive large numbers of people living until 90 -100 with dementia and needing 24h care. Lets hope the Ai/robotics gamble pays out.
- kinj28 9y ago
  Just curious - how many software developers would have retired by now? And at what age?
- IanCal 9y ago
  > Pensions are a Ponzi scheme, don't fall for it. Pensions are mostly just highly tax advantaged wrappers for investments now. They are most definitely not ponzi schemes. Your link is for a defined benefit pension, which is not typical anymore.
  - PoachedSausage 9y ago
    That's the point. Large numbers of current retirees have been promised unaffordable pensions.
    - IanCal 9y ago
      Telling people to "not fall for it" sounds like talking about what people will currently be offered. Given the level of misunderstanding about pensions generally I think just telling people this is dangerous.
  - exclusiv 9y ago
    It may not be typical anymore but CalPERS is a defined benefit plan and the largest public pension fund in the US. [1] The problem is they bump up those benefits when their fund is doing well but when it isn't doing well there's little or no adjustment. It's so big it's fund is influential in the market and also in politics. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CalPERS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CalPERS
- kpommerenke 9y ago
  Parent says "Pensions are a Ponzi scheme, don't fall for it." While public pensions like social security have certain features of a Ponzi scheme, they can be sustainable forever, unlike other Ponzi schemes. In fact, they can be more efficient than everyone saving and investing for retirement themselves: https://www.economist.com/news/economics-brief/21727877-final-brief-our-series-big-economic-ideas-looks-costs-and-benefits https://www.economist.com/news/economics-brief/21727877-fina...
CM30 9y ago
A lot of people with white collar jobs don't have any expectation they'll ever be able to retire either. As much focus as there is on web development/software engineering/other tech related jobs with decent income possibilities, a lot of other white collar jobs don't pay all that well at all.
rsheridan6 9y ago
I don't get how this is supposed to fit in with the fact that discrimination against older workers is a big thing. Who is supposed to be hiring these 70 year olds with no savings?

PoachedSausage 9y ago

I'm in my thirties and work for a government funded research organisation doing work on a particle accelerator. I don't expect or want to retire, but then 'retirement' means different things. I would definitely want to retire if I worked as a brick layer. Pensions are a Ponzi scheme, don't fall for it. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41204209 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41204209

Retric 9y ago
No, the math is very different from a Ponzi scheme. Pensions are awesome if you don't have kids. Consider if you have a 5% chance to die at or before 65 who get's the money? Well what if you could get together with 10,000 people and split it with those who live. Now your investments are boosted by those who die and there is no downside as who cares what happens after you die. Unfortunately, such schemes are illegal unless it's though a company. Because really the long tail is living to 120 which means you don't want to aim to be broke at say 95 then turn 95 and be in good health. PS: Remember, returns after inflation can be <3% over 20 years. I want a hedge for that risk other than just having a massive amount of money I can't really spend.
- uiri 9y ago
  I agree that private pensions are not necessarily Ponzi schemes. It is possible that they are operated that way. It is also possible that they are operated like an actual investment fund. Without looking at the books, it is difficult to tell. However, social security and other government funded pensions are Ponzi schemes. The money you pay in is given to people who are retired at that time. The money you get out is paid by people who are working at that time.
  - Retric 9y ago
    Social Security is running a ~$2.79 trillion dollar 'surplus' as they have collected more than they have paid out. Which means they have not been paying out 1:1 with money paid in. It's also not just a pension fund as you can receive benefits well before 62. Death of spouse with under age children or permanent disability. Now, this does not mean it's a great or even a good investment. But, the trade off of safety vs returns is not actually that bad assuming you live longer than average. PS: Another way of looking at it is there are no 100% safe approaches to investing 10's of trillions of dollars. Your stuck leveraging GDP growth which is only slightly better than inflation and frankly that's what SS does.
  - barrkel 9y ago
    Keeping retired people alive requires devoting some proportion of current economic output to their welfare. Whether that proportion is paid from private savings, public savings, or current taxation ultimately doesn't change the fact that it comes out of current production. You can't save (nice) food, health workers, winter heating, etc. So the real fight is what proportion of current output goes to old people. Private schemes try to ensure wealthy old people get the biggest slice. Public schemes are more vote driven. It doesn't make them Ponzi schemes.
- PoachedSausage 9y ago
  Yes, pensions can be awesome. One of my colleagues is retiring soon with a very nice final salary pension the likes of which will not be seen by anyone starting now. Most pensions also will not be enough to cover long term care costs if you are unlucky enough to get some form of dementia. Pensions as a concept were a great idea when life expectancy was shorter and most people could mostly look after themselves in old age. I don't think they can survive large numbers of people living until 90 -100 with dementia and needing 24h care. Lets hope the Ai/robotics gamble pays out.
kinj28 9y ago
Just curious - how many software developers would have retired by now? And at what age?
IanCal 9y ago
> Pensions are a Ponzi scheme, don't fall for it. Pensions are mostly just highly tax advantaged wrappers for investments now. They are most definitely not ponzi schemes. Your link is for a defined benefit pension, which is not typical anymore.
- PoachedSausage 9y ago
  That's the point. Large numbers of current retirees have been promised unaffordable pensions.
  - IanCal 9y ago
    Telling people to "not fall for it" sounds like talking about what people will currently be offered. Given the level of misunderstanding about pensions generally I think just telling people this is dangerous.
- exclusiv 9y ago
  It may not be typical anymore but CalPERS is a defined benefit plan and the largest public pension fund in the US. [1] The problem is they bump up those benefits when their fund is doing well but when it isn't doing well there's little or no adjustment. It's so big it's fund is influential in the market and also in politics. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CalPERS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CalPERS
kpommerenke 9y ago
Parent says "Pensions are a Ponzi scheme, don't fall for it." While public pensions like social security have certain features of a Ponzi scheme, they can be sustainable forever, unlike other Ponzi schemes. In fact, they can be more efficient than everyone saving and investing for retirement themselves: https://www.economist.com/news/economics-brief/21727877-final-brief-our-series-big-economic-ideas-looks-costs-and-benefits https://www.economist.com/news/economics-brief/21727877-fina...

CM30 9y ago

A lot of people with white collar jobs don't have any expectation they'll ever be able to retire either. As much focus as there is on web development/software engineering/other tech related jobs with decent income possibilities, a lot of other white collar jobs don't pay all that well at all.

rsheridan6 9y ago

I don't get how this is supposed to fit in with the fact that discrimination against older workers is a big thing. Who is supposed to be hiring these 70 year olds with no savings?