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Relevant meme from over three years ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/23yy37/how_china_sinks_bitcoin_south_park_style_inspired/ https://www.reddit.

Relevant meme from over three years ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/23yy37/how_china_sinks_bitcoin_south_park_style_inspired/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/23yy37/how_china_s... (This is not the first time, nor the second time, nor the third time, that we've seen the news "china bans bitcoin" or "china cracks down on bitcoin".)

ajross 9y ago
Could be the nineteenth time. This is the logic that BASE jumpers use: I haven't died yet, ergo it's safe. It only needs to crash once. And as basically everyone knows but refuses to acknowledge, the liquidity limitations of all this speculation (i.e. there's nowhere near enough demand to buy up a dropping currency) mean that it'll crash all the way to zero when it does.
- mark024 9y ago
  great, then I'll buy the whole 16 millions of it, I could not care less about China, I think their presence in bitcoin is bad, as in everything they do, they are not consumers, they are locusts, they are in it only to profit, to make money, I dealt a bit with chinese, eg. wow gold and is a simmilar story, they did more harm to wow with they gold selling than good.
  - ajross 9y ago
    If you aren't exposed to bitcoin currently and view this instability as an opportunity to jump in at the floor of another boom/bust cycle, then that's a good plan (or at least not an insane one). But that logic only works if you aren't exposed to bitcoin. I expect given your tone and defensiveness that this isn't true and that you're holding a ton of coins right now that you'd be pretty upset to find were worth nothing.
    - mark024 9y ago
      I wish I would be holding a lot of coins... even if bitcoins drops 50% is still worth a lot, I know the privileged elitist HN guys hate it for some reason, while probably is saving lives as we speak in Venezuela, but my tone is probably due experience dealing with Chinese, and their efficiency in farming every bit of value form everything they touch, for example their recently started to farm pubg.
    - zipwitch 9y ago
      As someone who isn't exposed (I have like .02 bitcoin from a fountain in the early days), but has been an interested observer, the possibility of a crash down to rock bottom does make it seem like a good time to at least be in position to play with cryptocurrencies with some disposable funds. Maybe I'll take out some of my prediction market money that's been sitting since the election.
  - gilrain 9y ago
    I've dealt with Americans that would make your skin crawl, but, of course, most are decent, average people. It's the same anywhere. To think otherwise of Chinese people is to give in to our racist, tribal instincts. Resist!
  - dang 9y ago
    > they are not consumers, they are locusts That's a bannable offense and we've banned this account. All: if you can't post civilly, please don't post here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- ploxiln 9y ago
  I'd rephrase the metaphor - someone is saying, "I saw him hit the cliff, he's done for!", and then it turns out he didn't hit the cliff. After a couple times you stop paying attention to this message, it's too unreliable. I'll grant you bitcoin is volatile and "dangerous". That's true before China "bans" bitcoin. But the question is "did China just ban bitcoin" and the answer is "most probably not".
  - ajross 9y ago
    OK, sure. That part I agree with. I thought you were making the case that because people have been predicting a bitcoin crash for years (they have) and been wrong (they have), that such a crash won't happen (it will). Speculative investments have boom/bust cycles, they always will. Arguing that bitcoin is somehow immune is silly. And, specific to bitcoin, when that crash happens it's going to be catastrophic. Daily-trade-to-capitalization ratio for bitcoin is literally 10x lower than it is for any other volatile security. When the owners start fleeing there will be no one to buy.

ajross 9y ago

Could be the nineteenth time. This is the logic that BASE jumpers use: I haven't died yet, ergo it's safe. It only needs to crash once. And as basically everyone knows but refuses to acknowledge, the liquidity limitations of all this speculation (i.e. there's nowhere near enough demand to buy up a dropping currency) mean that it'll crash all the way to zero when it does.

mark024 9y ago
great, then I'll buy the whole 16 millions of it, I could not care less about China, I think their presence in bitcoin is bad, as in everything they do, they are not consumers, they are locusts, they are in it only to profit, to make money, I dealt a bit with chinese, eg. wow gold and is a simmilar story, they did more harm to wow with they gold selling than good.
- ajross 9y ago
  If you aren't exposed to bitcoin currently and view this instability as an opportunity to jump in at the floor of another boom/bust cycle, then that's a good plan (or at least not an insane one). But that logic only works if you aren't exposed to bitcoin. I expect given your tone and defensiveness that this isn't true and that you're holding a ton of coins right now that you'd be pretty upset to find were worth nothing.
  - mark024 9y ago
    I wish I would be holding a lot of coins... even if bitcoins drops 50% is still worth a lot, I know the privileged elitist HN guys hate it for some reason, while probably is saving lives as we speak in Venezuela, but my tone is probably due experience dealing with Chinese, and their efficiency in farming every bit of value form everything they touch, for example their recently started to farm pubg.
  - zipwitch 9y ago
    As someone who isn't exposed (I have like .02 bitcoin from a fountain in the early days), but has been an interested observer, the possibility of a crash down to rock bottom does make it seem like a good time to at least be in position to play with cryptocurrencies with some disposable funds. Maybe I'll take out some of my prediction market money that's been sitting since the election.
- gilrain 9y ago
  I've dealt with Americans that would make your skin crawl, but, of course, most are decent, average people. It's the same anywhere. To think otherwise of Chinese people is to give in to our racist, tribal instincts. Resist!
- dang 9y ago
  > they are not consumers, they are locusts That's a bannable offense and we've banned this account. All: if you can't post civilly, please don't post here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
ploxiln 9y ago
I'd rephrase the metaphor - someone is saying, "I saw him hit the cliff, he's done for!", and then it turns out he didn't hit the cliff. After a couple times you stop paying attention to this message, it's too unreliable. I'll grant you bitcoin is volatile and "dangerous". That's true before China "bans" bitcoin. But the question is "did China just ban bitcoin" and the answer is "most probably not".
- ajross 9y ago
  OK, sure. That part I agree with. I thought you were making the case that because people have been predicting a bitcoin crash for years (they have) and been wrong (they have), that such a crash won't happen (it will). Speculative investments have boom/bust cycles, they always will. Arguing that bitcoin is somehow immune is silly. And, specific to bitcoin, when that crash happens it's going to be catastrophic. Daily-trade-to-capitalization ratio for bitcoin is literally 10x lower than it is for any other volatile security. When the owners start fleeing there will be no one to buy.