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The missile NK recently fired over Japan recently was launched at 5:58 AM. At 6:02 AM the Japanese government sent a text alert. At 6:12 it landed in the ocea
by trgv 9y ago
The missile NK recently fired over Japan recently was launched at 5:58 AM. At 6:02 AM the Japanese government sent a text alert. At 6:12 it landed in the ocean. We know about NK missiles launches very quickly after they are fired. I wouldn't be surprised if we know about them before they're fired. This suggests to me that these missiles can be intercepted.
I don't know what kinds of interception technology is deployed in the area, but I would guess there is some and I would also guess that a (hypothetical) NK ICBM would not have significant countermeasures.
I think the real question here is what NK/Kim's aims are. When Iran was actively developing a nuclear capability, it seemed clear that their goal was to get as close to a weapon as possible without actually finishing a weapon. The closer they were, the more bargaining power they had in terms of getting the US/UN to lift sanctions.
With NK, I'm less clear about strategy. In the past, it seemed like NK actions had the aim of extorting aid money from the US/allies. That may still be the case. Here's a chart showing US humanitarian aid to NK since 2001: https://explorer.usaid.gov/cd/PRK https://explorer.usaid.gov/cd/PRK
- hacker_9 9y ago> fired over Japan To put it in context, it was fired into space, over the part of the world where Japan resides. Changes the narrative quite a bit.
- gambiting 9y agoEven the best interception systems have a horrible success rate, it's basically a nice system to have but it's not possible to rely on it for protection. There is no better protection than making sure the missile is not launched in the first place.
- rgbrenner 9y agoIt takes 30-40 minutes for an NK icbm to reach the US. About 20 minutes to guam. But the US missile defense has never seen combat.. only tests. They had 10 successful tests (the last 10) out of 18. But those are planned ahead of time (with trajectories already mapped out), and the missiles don't have countermeasures (which they would in a real conflict). So there's a big question about whether the system will work at all. I don't think anyone is eager to find out. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa-defense/lack-of-real-world-testing-raises-doubts-on-u-s-missile-defenses-idUSKBN1AP2R3 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa-d...
- AnimalMuppet 9y agoOf course, there are also questions about how well NK missiles can do countermeasures...