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Click bait title, article is not actually suggesting Kim Jong-Un will instigate nuclear warfare (or would be rational if he chose to do so), even though the tit
by Benjamin_Dobell 9y ago
Click bait title, article is not actually suggesting Kim Jong-Un will instigate nuclear warfare (or would be rational if he chose to do so), even though the title comes across that way.
The article specifically talks about retaliation against military attacks by the US i.e. the article never suggests it would be rational to fire a nuke off as a "first" move, but rather simply fire them before the US does. The title is quite unclear in that regard.
- zzalpha 9y agoClick bait title, article is not actually suggesting Kim Jong-Un will instigate nuclear warfare Actually it does: This scenario to stave off an invasion with a limited nuclear attack on a U.S. military target is not irrational, although it is clearly risky and terrifyingly tragic. One wrinkle is that North Korea’s arsenal is currently small and vulnerable, and U.S. military strategy, reiterated by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, is to try to find and destroy all of Kim’s nuclear systems in the event of a war. That gives Kim an incentive to go first, go early and go massively if he is not confident about surviving a U.S. attempt at disarming him. If Kim thinks we are coming after him or his forces, he cannot afford to be wrong and he cannot afford to launch second. That last sentence is key, so if you're skimming this comment, go back and read it. To summarize: The basic thesis is that, if Kim believes an attack is coming (not that it has started, that it is simply coming), his rational choice is to use nuclear arms on bases in the region and thus force the US to the negotiating table.