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Many people here in Turkey will think solar eclipse triggered this. Strong 1999 earthquake in Turkey also happened just some weeks after the full solar eclips

by afsina 9y ago

Many people here in Turkey will think solar eclipse triggered this. Strong 1999 earthquake in Turkey also happened just some weeks after the full solar eclipse. I think it is just a coincidence though. Edit: wording.

raverbashing 9y ago
Are there studies on possible tidal effects (if any) that an eclipse situation could cause?
- adrianN 9y ago
  Tides have an influence on earthquakes [1], but spring tides due to Sun and Moon lining up happen about twice a month, so I don't think that the Eclipse is a likely cause. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_triggering_of_earthquakes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_triggering_of_earthquake...
- matheweis 9y ago
  Sort of; they found that the probability of a quake along shallow thrust faults increases about 3x during full and new moons in general (of which an eclipse is a special case, with no special risk): https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-position-moon-or-planets-affect-seismicity-are-there-more-earthquakes-morningin-eveningat-a?qt-news_science_products=7 https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-position-moon-or-planets-affec...
cies 9y ago
Gotta love Reddit in Turkey then. (Possibly already blocked though) "Magnitude 8.0 Earthquake strikes off Mexico's coast. A Magnitude 8.0 Earthquake was predicted by a Redditor just a day earlier on this subreddit." https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/6yss3m/magnitude_80_earthquake_strikes_off_mexicos_coast/ https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/6yss3m/magnitud...
- matheweis 9y ago
  r/conspiracy aside, looks like the redditor's main theory is that there is some sort of casual link between solar flares and earthquakes. Should be an easy thing for a data scientist to debunk or validate...
  - cies 9y ago
    > r/conspiracy aside :) > Should be an easy thing for a data scientist to debunk or validate... He's calling those with said skills to help him. From his announcement: > If you are good at statistical analysis we could use your help. Please pm me. Link: https://np.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/6yhv3l/the_ultimate_earthquake_test_is_about_to_commence/ https://np.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/6yhv3l/the_ultim...
  - anotherbrownguy 9y ago
    The funny thing is almost everything outside of r/conspiracy and a few other places is a conspiracy theory site for conspiracies including Russiagate.
- eregorn 9y ago
  He predicted an earthquake in the Philippines and other areas that didn't happen 2 months ago and one in New Zealand 1 month ago. He also made a prediction for a 9.0 earthquake in Nepal after the eclipse and slowly dropped the number over the days to fish out a "prediction". He was also hedging his bets on this earthquake and was giving preference to Japan, not Mexico. The guy's a charlatan that was basically throwing predictions at the wall till they stuck and is now hoping no one notices his failures.
  - MicroBerto 9y ago
    I disagree. I've read some of his forecasts and he's getting better over time. He put Mexico within the sphere of possibilities. I think there's something to his solar flare theory. It may not be the only the only piece, but it seems to be a piece. He'll have an uphill battle to fight but it's fun to read his stuff.
Retric 9y ago
Actually, back in high school I did some statistics and found a link between tidal forces and earthquakes. Which is reasonable as the crust does flex a little. An eclipse means the moon earth and sun are in a line which maximizes the net tidal forces. However, you can get the same impact from a lunar eclipse. It's also not much stronger than a normal full moon. Anyway, the effect was not that strong, but I have seen it validated by other studies. The problem is say a 50% increase in odds for the next hour can be statistically significant, but the odds for a random hour are so low it's just not that useful. PS: Best data was actually micro quakes near volcano's, but they are so tiny as to be mostly meaningless.

by afsina 9y ago

raverbashing 9y ago

Are there studies on possible tidal effects (if any) that an eclipse situation could cause?

adrianN 9y ago
Tides have an influence on earthquakes [1], but spring tides due to Sun and Moon lining up happen about twice a month, so I don't think that the Eclipse is a likely cause. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_triggering_of_earthquakes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_triggering_of_earthquake...
matheweis 9y ago
Sort of; they found that the probability of a quake along shallow thrust faults increases about 3x during full and new moons in general (of which an eclipse is a special case, with no special risk): https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-position-moon-or-planets-affect-seismicity-are-there-more-earthquakes-morningin-eveningat-a?qt-news_science_products=7 https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-position-moon-or-planets-affec...

cies 9y ago

Gotta love Reddit in Turkey then. (Possibly already blocked though) "Magnitude 8.0 Earthquake strikes off Mexico's coast. A Magnitude 8.0 Earthquake was predicted by a Redditor just a day earlier on this subreddit." https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/6yss3m/magnitude_80_earthquake_strikes_off_mexicos_coast/ https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/6yss3m/magnitud...

matheweis 9y ago
r/conspiracy aside, looks like the redditor's main theory is that there is some sort of casual link between solar flares and earthquakes. Should be an easy thing for a data scientist to debunk or validate...
- cies 9y ago
  > r/conspiracy aside :) > Should be an easy thing for a data scientist to debunk or validate... He's calling those with said skills to help him. From his announcement: > If you are good at statistical analysis we could use your help. Please pm me. Link: https://np.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/6yhv3l/the_ultimate_earthquake_test_is_about_to_commence/ https://np.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/6yhv3l/the_ultim...
- anotherbrownguy 9y ago
  The funny thing is almost everything outside of r/conspiracy and a few other places is a conspiracy theory site for conspiracies including Russiagate.
eregorn 9y ago
He predicted an earthquake in the Philippines and other areas that didn't happen 2 months ago and one in New Zealand 1 month ago. He also made a prediction for a 9.0 earthquake in Nepal after the eclipse and slowly dropped the number over the days to fish out a "prediction". He was also hedging his bets on this earthquake and was giving preference to Japan, not Mexico. The guy's a charlatan that was basically throwing predictions at the wall till they stuck and is now hoping no one notices his failures.
- MicroBerto 9y ago
  I disagree. I've read some of his forecasts and he's getting better over time. He put Mexico within the sphere of possibilities. I think there's something to his solar flare theory. It may not be the only the only piece, but it seems to be a piece. He'll have an uphill battle to fight but it's fun to read his stuff.

Retric 9y ago

Actually, back in high school I did some statistics and found a link between tidal forces and earthquakes. Which is reasonable as the crust does flex a little. An eclipse means the moon earth and sun are in a line which maximizes the net tidal forces. However, you can get the same impact from a lunar eclipse. It's also not much stronger than a normal full moon. Anyway, the effect was not that strong, but I have seen it validated by other studies. The problem is say a 50% increase in odds for the next hour can be statistically significant, but the odds for a random hour are so low it's just not that useful. PS: Best data was actually micro quakes near volcano's, but they are so tiny as to be mostly meaningless.