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Dropping the Android Firewall ? if Google does, would any future partners trust it and collaborate with it ? and without that, many of Google's efforts, includi

by petra 9y ago

Dropping the Android Firewall ? if Google does, would any future partners trust it and collaborate with it ? and without that, many of Google's efforts, including it's moonshot, will have much lower chance of sucsess. Would they risk that ?

simonh 9y ago
Where else would the Android handset makers go, Microsoft? Actually that sounds good, we could do with a third viable handset OS, but that's a digression and at this point a bit of a fantasy. They have nowhere else to go. Back in the early days of iOS and Android the consensus seemed to be that the smartphone OSes were pretty much done. To compete with iOS all you had to do was match it's features, or catch up, and once you had it was pretty much all over. Since then Apple and Google have constantly found compelling new features for the OSes almost every year. Apple is sinking billions into the development of iOS, just look at what they're doing just in the area of health[1], and there is clear blue water in terms of quality and features[2] between it and Android, and that gap is increasing. Google makes most of it's money in mobile off the iOS platform, yet is investing hugely in Android development and making a pittance out of it. Not only is that unsustainable, but if they really want to compete with Apple they need to dramatically increase their investment in Android. They only way they can justify doing that is to actually start making significant revenue off Android. The only way to do that is to sell their own handsets, differentiate them from competing Android handset vendors, command a decent profit margin and grab significant market share. [1] https://www.cultofmac.com/316559/abc-news-goes-inside-apples-top-secret-health-lab/ https://www.cultofmac.com/316559/abc-news-goes-inside-apples... [2] Super robust and secure XPC; Superior power management; Custom development tools, languages and hardware-software integration with things like Metal and the motion co-processor; High quality health and fitness tracking; VRKit; Highly consistent calibration of sensors between devices, vital for precision applications like VR; All this is arguable in the details, sure, but the fact that Apple is spending hugely on this backed by blockbuster revenues isn't and Google can't realistically match that just for the heck of it. They need a revenue stream to back it up.
- bryanlarsen 9y ago
  Google has tens of billions a year in revenue from Android. Only in comparison to Apple revenue or Google's advertising business can that be called a pittance. :)
  - simonh 9y ago
    In a 2016 court filing it was revealed Google made $30bn on Android in the 8 years since 2008. Their annual revenue in 2016 was $89bn, of which 87% was from search. Half of that is from mobile, but 90% of that comes from iOS so Android search revenue is about $7bn. On top of that they make a few bn from the Play store. So their total Android related revenue is probably about $10bn a year. So no, Google do not make tens of billions a year off Android. They may possibly make a profit off of it of a few bn a year, but that's about the best we can say. On the other hand they pay Apple $3bn a year just to be the default search engine in Mobile Safari. That's how big the gulf is in the mobile market between them and Apple. They make about 4x as much money off iOS as they do off their own operating system. If I was running Google there's no way I'd consider that acceptable, because all that iOS revenue is at Apple's discretion.
grwthckrmstr 9y ago
At this point, all smartphone oems selling Android devices, do they really have a choice? Android is too big. The oems are too invested. They need Google. Google on the other hand, could flip the switch one day and say that they do not need them anymore.

by petra 9y ago

simonh 9y ago

Where else would the Android handset makers go, Microsoft? Actually that sounds good, we could do with a third viable handset OS, but that's a digression and at this point a bit of a fantasy. They have nowhere else to go. Back in the early days of iOS and Android the consensus seemed to be that the smartphone OSes were pretty much done. To compete with iOS all you had to do was match it's features, or catch up, and once you had it was pretty much all over. Since then Apple and Google have constantly found compelling new features for the OSes almost every year. Apple is sinking billions into the development of iOS, just look at what they're doing just in the area of health[1], and there is clear blue water in terms of quality and features[2] between it and Android, and that gap is increasing. Google makes most of it's money in mobile off the iOS platform, yet is investing hugely in Android development and making a pittance out of it. Not only is that unsustainable, but if they really want to compete with Apple they need to dramatically increase their investment in Android. They only way they can justify doing that is to actually start making significant revenue off Android. The only way to do that is to sell their own handsets, differentiate them from competing Android handset vendors, command a decent profit margin and grab significant market share. [1] https://www.cultofmac.com/316559/abc-news-goes-inside-apples-top-secret-health-lab/ https://www.cultofmac.com/316559/abc-news-goes-inside-apples... [2] Super robust and secure XPC; Superior power management; Custom development tools, languages and hardware-software integration with things like Metal and the motion co-processor; High quality health and fitness tracking; VRKit; Highly consistent calibration of sensors between devices, vital for precision applications like VR; All this is arguable in the details, sure, but the fact that Apple is spending hugely on this backed by blockbuster revenues isn't and Google can't realistically match that just for the heck of it. They need a revenue stream to back it up.

bryanlarsen 9y ago
Google has tens of billions a year in revenue from Android. Only in comparison to Apple revenue or Google's advertising business can that be called a pittance. :)
- simonh 9y ago
  In a 2016 court filing it was revealed Google made $30bn on Android in the 8 years since 2008. Their annual revenue in 2016 was $89bn, of which 87% was from search. Half of that is from mobile, but 90% of that comes from iOS so Android search revenue is about $7bn. On top of that they make a few bn from the Play store. So their total Android related revenue is probably about $10bn a year. So no, Google do not make tens of billions a year off Android. They may possibly make a profit off of it of a few bn a year, but that's about the best we can say. On the other hand they pay Apple $3bn a year just to be the default search engine in Mobile Safari. That's how big the gulf is in the mobile market between them and Apple. They make about 4x as much money off iOS as they do off their own operating system. If I was running Google there's no way I'd consider that acceptable, because all that iOS revenue is at Apple's discretion.

grwthckrmstr 9y ago

At this point, all smartphone oems selling Android devices, do they really have a choice? Android is too big. The oems are too invested. They need Google. Google on the other hand, could flip the switch one day and say that they do not need them anymore.