6 ms·

What If Bitcoin – Shoot I didn't invest

17 points by AshishGupta93 9y ago

sAbakumoff 9y ago
Of all the words of mice and men, the saddest are, "It might have been.”
- AndrewOMartin 9y ago
  "All our savings and our house went up in smoke because I shot them all on a volatile investment I knew nothing about" must come in a close second.
  - bshimmin 9y ago
    "Invest only what you can afford to lose" really are wise words. They aren't words that will get you insanely rich in the blink of an eye, of course, but they are words that mean you won't lose your house.
    - AndrewOMartin 9y ago
      You're damn right, I worked in the online gambling industry four about 5 years, and that became the golden rule zero for all things, especially poker strategy.
scrrr 9y ago
Funny, this could be extended to all sorts of investments. What if I spent 1000 USD on Apple in 1990? I'd have about 1000 Apple stock now, currently worth around 160k.
- quickthrower2 9y ago
  That's nothing like the return on BTC
  - JSDave 9y ago
    How about the return on PonziCoin everybody missed out on? It's gone up about 10,000% in 2 months. Market cap should surpass global GDP mid-May next year.
keyle 9y ago
As much as I see myself as wild person when it comes to offshoot bets, I still can't reason myself into buying bitcoins. Not sure I must be too Gen X to find this reasonable. Anyone here comment "how well they did?" and if you've pulled out or are seriously thinking about pulling out? I feel silly, but I'm still not going to put my hard earned cash in it any time soon... In fact, I wouldn't really know how.
- Tade0 9y ago
  I guess there's another side to this story: Some people got their bitcoins stolen. Also all this wealth is purely speculative. If everybody converted their bitcoins to fiat currency now the exchange rate would collapse quickly.
  - znebby 9y ago
    > If everybody converted their bitcoins to fiat currency now the exchange rate would collapse quickly. You can say the same about literally any asset or currency. If everyone sells, and no one is buying, then yes, the value drops to 0.
    - Tade0 9y ago
      Let me rephrase that: it takes a lesser percentage of bitcoin holders vs fiat currency holders selling their assets to collapse the value of their respective currencies. Or even better: it's nearly impossible to do that with fiat currency, because there are checks and balances in place.
    - JSDave 9y ago
      Yes, but all the systems put in place to shield fiat from the booms and busts don't exist in crypto. For example, the federal reserve and legislators can manipulate the interest rates and the deficit to encourage people to hold or sell their USD.
    - pg314 9y ago
      You're conflating the value and price of an asset. E.g. if you own an asset like a stock that pays dividends, the value of that stock is the net present value of the future dividends. The price is determined by buyers and sellers and can diverge widely from the value. It's related to the distinction between investing and speculating. Investing is based on whether the intrinsic value is below or above the price, while speculating is just based on the price.
quickthrower2 9y ago
This will depress many people
TekMol 9y ago
But does that mean anything? You could have made this kind of ROI with many assets. For example with stock options. I have been telling people for years that "I am sure Bitcoin will grow a lot. I probably should invest. I'm just too lazy to dabble with the tech.". And I have not invested even though I thought it would be a great investment. But what if I did? I would not have invested more then $10k. Because it's such a volatile asset. If I did that 3 years ago, I would have made $60k or so. Nice. But I made more with less volatile investments in the same time. Simply because I invested more. So by not investing in BTC, I did not miss much.
- pjc50 9y ago
  Not only is it tremendously volatile, it's very easy for it to be lost or stolen from your wallet, or defrauded by the exchanges. (Unless you're really good at information security and very disciplined. I'd be very uncomfortable keeping a £10k investment on a PC in my house.)
  - TekMol 9y ago
    That's actually the biggest issue with Bitcoin. And what I meant with "dabble with the tech". There is just no way to securely create a secret key. Because the algorithm is so complex, you have to trust somebody else's software to create the key. How do you know that software is neither malicious nor buggy?
    - DennisP 9y ago
      If you really want to be sure, you can create your own private key with dice: http://www.swansontec.com/bitcoin-dice.html http://www.swansontec.com/bitcoin-dice.html https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2s2w1r/generate_addresses_private_keys_with_pencil_paper/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2s2w1r/generate_ad...
      - TekMol 9y ago
        Thanks! That bitcoin-dice.html link is awesome. It links to a rather short bash script that seems to do the key to public address conversion. That is exactly what is needed.
have_faith 9y ago
I refuse to visit this website in order to preserve my own sanity. I was floating around forums trading BTC while it was $5. Life moves on, trees keep growing.
- MrMember 9y ago
  If I had the disposable income I have now back then I probably would have build a mining rig when the price was around $15. It wasn't too difficult to mine around a Bitcoin per day with a decent rig. On the flipside I have no idea when or if I would have cashed out. When it hit $100? $1000? Impossible to say.
verroq 9y ago
What if I didn't buy AMD? What if I didn't buy SPY? What if I didn't buy NVDA? What if I didn't buy Ethereum?
- DennisP 9y ago
  Well Ethereum's in the dropdown so they've got that covered.
davidgerard 9y ago
The hype is full of survivorship bias. * What if you lost it in Mt. Gox? * What if you lost it in another of the roughly-monthly hacks of exchanges? * What if you lost it on an accidentally thrown-away hard drive? * What if you lost it to your own error? * What if you lost it on one of the many scams the crypto space is absolutely suffused with? For some reason these are never mentioned by people saying "but if you'd bought in 2011". Look at all these coins you also didn't "invest" in! http://deadcoins.com/ http://deadcoins.com/ Cryptos are gambling. Good luck if you won! But it's still not a sensible thing to recommend to others.
- ggambetta 9y ago
  I lost it in Mt. Gox, and this website made me very sad.
danmaz74 9y ago
As long as there are greater fools, there's a lot of money to be made with Bitcoin. Just don't be the last fool.
superasn 9y ago
Interesting site. It should have another graphic on the final page like what if i had invested the same amount in [google stock¦in a property in ny¦govt bonds¦etc] as comparison.

17 points by AshishGupta93 9y ago

sAbakumoff 9y ago

Of all the words of mice and men, the saddest are, "It might have been.”

AndrewOMartin 9y ago
"All our savings and our house went up in smoke because I shot them all on a volatile investment I knew nothing about" must come in a close second.
- bshimmin 9y ago
  "Invest only what you can afford to lose" really are wise words. They aren't words that will get you insanely rich in the blink of an eye, of course, but they are words that mean you won't lose your house.
  - AndrewOMartin 9y ago
    You're damn right, I worked in the online gambling industry four about 5 years, and that became the golden rule zero for all things, especially poker strategy.

scrrr 9y ago

Funny, this could be extended to all sorts of investments. What if I spent 1000 USD on Apple in 1990? I'd have about 1000 Apple stock now, currently worth around 160k.

quickthrower2 9y ago
That's nothing like the return on BTC
- JSDave 9y ago
  How about the return on PonziCoin everybody missed out on? It's gone up about 10,000% in 2 months. Market cap should surpass global GDP mid-May next year.

keyle 9y ago

As much as I see myself as wild person when it comes to offshoot bets, I still can't reason myself into buying bitcoins. Not sure I must be too Gen X to find this reasonable. Anyone here comment "how well they did?" and if you've pulled out or are seriously thinking about pulling out? I feel silly, but I'm still not going to put my hard earned cash in it any time soon... In fact, I wouldn't really know how.

Tade0 9y ago
I guess there's another side to this story: Some people got their bitcoins stolen. Also all this wealth is purely speculative. If everybody converted their bitcoins to fiat currency now the exchange rate would collapse quickly.
- znebby 9y ago
  > If everybody converted their bitcoins to fiat currency now the exchange rate would collapse quickly. You can say the same about literally any asset or currency. If everyone sells, and no one is buying, then yes, the value drops to 0.
  - Tade0 9y ago
    Let me rephrase that: it takes a lesser percentage of bitcoin holders vs fiat currency holders selling their assets to collapse the value of their respective currencies. Or even better: it's nearly impossible to do that with fiat currency, because there are checks and balances in place.
  - JSDave 9y ago
    Yes, but all the systems put in place to shield fiat from the booms and busts don't exist in crypto. For example, the federal reserve and legislators can manipulate the interest rates and the deficit to encourage people to hold or sell their USD.
  - pg314 9y ago
    You're conflating the value and price of an asset. E.g. if you own an asset like a stock that pays dividends, the value of that stock is the net present value of the future dividends. The price is determined by buyers and sellers and can diverge widely from the value. It's related to the distinction between investing and speculating. Investing is based on whether the intrinsic value is below or above the price, while speculating is just based on the price.

quickthrower2 9y ago

This will depress many people

TekMol 9y ago

But does that mean anything? You could have made this kind of ROI with many assets. For example with stock options. I have been telling people for years that "I am sure Bitcoin will grow a lot. I probably should invest. I'm just too lazy to dabble with the tech.". And I have not invested even though I thought it would be a great investment. But what if I did? I would not have invested more then $10k. Because it's such a volatile asset. If I did that 3 years ago, I would have made $60k or so. Nice. But I made more with less volatile investments in the same time. Simply because I invested more. So by not investing in BTC, I did not miss much.

pjc50 9y ago
Not only is it tremendously volatile, it's very easy for it to be lost or stolen from your wallet, or defrauded by the exchanges. (Unless you're really good at information security and very disciplined. I'd be very uncomfortable keeping a £10k investment on a PC in my house.)
- TekMol 9y ago
  That's actually the biggest issue with Bitcoin. And what I meant with "dabble with the tech". There is just no way to securely create a secret key. Because the algorithm is so complex, you have to trust somebody else's software to create the key. How do you know that software is neither malicious nor buggy?
  - DennisP 9y ago
    If you really want to be sure, you can create your own private key with dice: http://www.swansontec.com/bitcoin-dice.html http://www.swansontec.com/bitcoin-dice.html https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2s2w1r/generate_addresses_private_keys_with_pencil_paper/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2s2w1r/generate_ad...
    - TekMol 9y ago
      Thanks! That bitcoin-dice.html link is awesome. It links to a rather short bash script that seems to do the key to public address conversion. That is exactly what is needed.

have_faith 9y ago

I refuse to visit this website in order to preserve my own sanity. I was floating around forums trading BTC while it was $5. Life moves on, trees keep growing.

MrMember 9y ago
If I had the disposable income I have now back then I probably would have build a mining rig when the price was around $15. It wasn't too difficult to mine around a Bitcoin per day with a decent rig. On the flipside I have no idea when or if I would have cashed out. When it hit $100? $1000? Impossible to say.

verroq 9y ago

What if I didn't buy AMD? What if I didn't buy SPY? What if I didn't buy NVDA? What if I didn't buy Ethereum?

DennisP 9y ago
Well Ethereum's in the dropdown so they've got that covered.

davidgerard 9y ago

The hype is full of survivorship bias. * What if you lost it in Mt. Gox? * What if you lost it in another of the roughly-monthly hacks of exchanges? * What if you lost it on an accidentally thrown-away hard drive? * What if you lost it to your own error? * What if you lost it on one of the many scams the crypto space is absolutely suffused with? For some reason these are never mentioned by people saying "but if you'd bought in 2011". Look at all these coins you also didn't "invest" in! http://deadcoins.com/ http://deadcoins.com/ Cryptos are gambling. Good luck if you won! But it's still not a sensible thing to recommend to others.

ggambetta 9y ago
I lost it in Mt. Gox, and this website made me very sad.

danmaz74 9y ago

As long as there are greater fools, there's a lot of money to be made with Bitcoin. Just don't be the last fool.

superasn 9y ago

Interesting site. It should have another graphic on the final page like what if i had invested the same amount in [google stock¦in a property in ny¦govt bonds¦etc] as comparison.